Isibuyekezo sakamuva sezincomo ezivela ku- Ibhange laseDeutsche emaphethelweni e-Ibex 35 Lokhu kuphinde kwabeka umkhakha wezezimali endaweni egqamile emakethe yamasheya. Ibhange laseJalimane linqume ukuphakamisa intengo eqondiwe yamabhange ayisithupha abhalwe ohlwini oluyinhloko lwaseSpain futhi lenze nentuthuko enkulu ezincomweni zalo zokutshalwa kwezimali.
Lesi sinyathelo siza ngemuva kwesikhathi lapho izikhungo zezimali zaseSpain zibhalise khona i- Imakethe yesitoko iyanda kakhulu, ngenzuzo ephakathi cishe engu-70% ngonyaka odlule, futhi ku- isimo senzalo okuseqala ukujwayela. Naphezu kwalokhu, inkampani ikholelwa ukuthi kusenendawo yokuthuthuka, ikakhulukazi ngabadlali abathile.
I-Deutsche Bank iqinisa ukuzibophezela kwayo kuwo wonke amabhange e-Ibex
Umbiko oshicilelwe yinhlangano yaseJalimane umelela ukwesekwa okucishe kuhambisane nombono womkhakha wamabhange waseSpainI-Deutsche Bank ibuyekeze amanani ayo e-Banco Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Bankinter, Banco Sabadell kanye ne-Unicaja kuya phezulu, futhi igcizelela ukuthi, yize amanani engasashibhile njengoba ayenjalo emahoreni ambalwa edlule, isabona inzuzo eqinile yesakhiwo.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi babo, imbangela eyinhloko yalo mbono omuhle yi- ukuqina kwe-net interest margin (NII) endaweni ephansi yesilinganiso senzaloLe nkampani ilinganisela ukuthi ngo-2025 ukwehla kwemali engenayo yenzalo kuzoncishiswa nokuthi, kusukela ngo-2026 kuqhubeke, imali engenayo izoqala kabusha indlela yokukhula esekelwe ukwandiswa kwesikweletu kanye nokuphathwa kwezimali okusebenzayo.
Kulesi simo, i-Deutsche Bank ilindele ukuthi amabhange amaningi aseSpain azofinyelela ku- imbuyiselo ku-equity ebonakalayo (i-RoTE) engu-20% noma ngaphezulu kusukela ngo-2027Lokhu kuzoqinisa lo mkhakha njengomunye wemikhiqizo enenzuzo kakhulu eYurophu. ISabadell ne-Unicaja kuphela ezizowela ngaphansi kwalowo mkhawulo, kanye nokulinganiselwa okungu-15% no-10% ngokulandelana.
Inhlangano yaseJalimane igcizelela ukuthi lezi zibikezelo zisekelwe ku- ikhwalithi enhle yempahla, amazinga aphansi emali mboleko engasebenzi kahle, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemali ephilayo okuqinileIsilinganiso semali mboleko engasebenzi kahle sicishe sibe ngu-2,8% kanti izindleko zobungozi zihlala ziseduze namaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-34, amazinga eliwabheka njengahambisanayo ne- imvelo ye-macroeconomic kusese nomusa.
Umphumela wombiko ku-Ibex 35 kanye nasebhange laseSpain
Ukushicilelwa kombiko kwabonakala ngokushesha emakethe yamasheya. Ngosuku oluphawulwe ukungaqiniseki kwamazwe ngamazwe, I-Ibex 35 ikwazile ukuzihlukanisa nezinye izinkomba zaseYurophu Ngenxa yokudonswa yibhange, okwaphinde kwaholela ekuzuzeni ngaphakathi kwenkomba.
Izinhlangano ezifana Banco Santander, Banco Sabadell kanye Bankinter Baqongelele inzuzo engaphezu kuka-2% ngesikhathi seseshini, kuyilapho i-BBVA, i-Unicaja, kanye ne-CaixaBank nabo bethole intuthuko, yize iphakathi nendawo. Ngale ndlela, amabhange aseSpain aphinde asebenza njengethonya elishukumisa i-Ibex ukuthi ifinyelele amazinga aphezulu onyaka.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi ababonisiwe, umbiko we-Deutsche Bank usebenza njengo isikhuthazo esengeziwe somkhakha owawuvele usebenza kangcono kunemakethe yonkeNgemva kwamakota ambalwa behola izinzuzo, abanye abatshalizimali base beqala ukungabaza amandla engeziwe omkhakha wamabhange, kodwa ukubuyekezwa okuphezulu kwamanani aqondiwe kuvuselele inzalo.
Noma kunjalo, inhlangano yaseJalimane icacisa ukuthi Indlela ayifani kuzo zonke izinhlaka ze-IbexIbheka ukuthi amabhange amakhulu omhlaba kanye nabanye abadlali basekhaya banikeza amathuba athakazelisayo, kanti ezinye izinhlangano zinesikhala esincane kakhulu sokuthuthuka ngemuva kokusebenza kwazo okuhle kwakamuva.
USabadell noBankinter: kusukela ekubambeni kuze kube sekuthengweni
Enye yezinguquko eziphawuleka kakhulu embikweni ukushintsha kwesimo I-Banco Sabadell kanye ne-Bankinter, eziqala 'ekubambeni' ziye 'ekuthengeni'Ngalesi sinqumo, iDeutsche Bank ingeza zombili izinhlangano ohlwini lwayo lwamasheya athandwayo emkhakheni wamabhange aseSpain.
Endabeni Banco SabadellIbhange laseJalimane liphakamisa intengo ekhonjiwe kusukela ku-€3,40 kuya ku-€3,80 ngesabelo ngasinye. Leli zinga elisha lisho ukuthi Amandla aphezulu angaba ngu-15%-16% uma kuqhathaniswa namanani akamuva, ibeka ibhange laseCatalan njengenye yamasheya anamandla amakhulu ngaphakathi kwe-Ibex yezezimali.
Abahlaziyi baveza ukuthi iSabadell ibilokhu ingenye yamabhange aseSpain asebenze kabi kakhulu kuze kube manje kulo nyaka, ingasebenzi kahle kontanga bayo. Lokhu, kuhambisane nokuthuthuka kwezisekelo kanye nentuthuko ebhizinisini layo. uhlelo lokuthuthukisa inzuzo kanye nokusebenza kahleLokhu kuvula ithuba lokubuyiselwa kancane kancane kwentengo yamasheya uma imigomo ihlangatshezwa.
Uma sibheka phambili eminyakeni ezayo, iDeutsche Bank ikholelwa ukuthi kuyakholeka ukuthi iSabadell izofeza I-RoTE isondele ku-16% ngo-2027Nakuba lesi sibalo singaphansi kancane kwesilinganiso somkhakha, ibhange laseJalimane likholelwa ukuthi intengo yamasheya yamanje ayibonisi ngokwanele amandla ayo enzuzo noma amandla ayo okusabalalisa imali.
En I-BankinterUkuthuthuka kukabili: okokuqala, kuphakamisa isincomo kusukela ku-'bamba' kuya ku-'thenga'; okwesibili, kwandisa intengo eqondiwe kusukela ku-€13,5 kuya ku-€15,8 ngesabelo ngasinye. Lokhu kuhunyushwa kube yi- amathuba okukhula asondele ku-10%, ukuthatha amazinga emakethe akamuva njengereferensi.
I-Deutsche Bank iqokomisa Imodeli yebhizinisi ehlukile kaBankinterNjengoba kuneminikelo ephezulu evela ezindleleni zezimali, umsebenzi oqinile ekuphathweni kwempahla kanye nomshuwalense, kanye nembuyiselo yezabelo esevele isondele kakhulu ku-20%, lezi zici, ngokombono wakhe, zingase zivumele ibhizinisi lihwebe ngeprimiyamu uma liqhathaniswa namanye amabhange asekhaya, into imakethe engayibonisi ngokugcwele.
I-CaixaBank, i-Santander, i-BBVA kanye ne-Unicaja: ukuthuthuka okubanzi emananini aqondiwe
Ngaphandle kweSabadell neBankinter, lo mbiko uletha nezinguquko ezifanele kwamanye amabhange e-Ibex. I-CaixaBank, i-Deutsche Bank ihoxise isiphakamiso sayo sangaphambilini 'sokuthengisa' bese isishintsha sibe 'yibambe', ngenkathi ibuyekeza intengo yayo eqondiwe ikhuphuke isuka kuma-euro angu-9,15 iye kuma-euro angu-11,05 ngesabelo ngasinye.
Inhlangano yaseJalimane iyaqaphela Isikhundla esiqinile seCaixaBank emakethe yasekhayaIsisekelo sayo esibanzi samakhasimende kanye nesilinganiso senzalo esithuthukisiwe ngemuva kokuhlanganiswa kwemisebenzi yangaphambilini kuyizinto ezibalulekile. Kodwa-ke, ikholelwa ukuthi ingxenye enkulu yalezi zinamandla isivele ibekwe entengo yamasheya yamanje, ngakho-ke ibona amandla engeziwe njenganciphile kakhulu kunakwamanye amabhange.
Endabeni I-Banco SantanderI-Deutsche Bank igcina isincomo sayo esihle futhi inyusa intengo yayo eqondiwe isuka ku-€9,8 iye ku-€11,5 ngesabelo ngasinye. Lokhu kulungiswa kumele i- uhambo olwengeziwe olucishe lube ngu-7% emazingeni amuva nje, kusekelwa ukuhlukahluka kwayo ngokwezindawo, ukusebenza kahle okuthuthukisiwe kanye namandla esikhundla sayo senhloko-dolobha.
para BBVAIntengo eqondiwe inyuswe kusukela ku-€19,75 kuya ku-€21,25 ngesabelo ngasinye. Abahlaziyi bakholelwa ukuthi ibhange linikeza amathuba okukhula asondele ku-9%-10%isekelwa ngumnikelo wezimakethe zayo eziyinhloko, ikakhulukazi iMexico neSpain. Nakuba bexwayisa ngokuthi imigomo yenzuzo iyadingakala, bakholelwa ukuthi isitoko sisahweba ngeziphindaphindo ezifanele ngokwezinga lenzuzo elilindelekile.
Isibuyekezo se-outlook siqediwe nge Unicaja BankI-Deutsche Bank isaqhubeka nesiphakamiso sayo 'sokubamba', kodwa inyusa intengo eqondiwe isuka kuma-euro angu-2,55 iye kuma-euro angu-2,75 ngesabelo ngasinyeLokhu kubonisa umbono owakhayo kancane ngenqubo yayo yokuhlanganisa kanye nokuthuthukiswa kokusebenza. Kodwa-ke, inkampani yaseJalimane iphawula ukuthi inzuzo yayo ebikezelwe ihlala ingaphansi kwesilinganiso semboni, okunciphisa amandla ayo okukhula.
Umkhakha okwazi ukumelana nezinga lenzalo eliphansi
Omunye wemiyalezo eyinhloko yokuhlaziywa ukuthi, ngokusho kweDeutsche Bank, Amabhange aseSpain abonakalise ukuthi akulungele kangcono isimo senzalo ephansi. kunalokho okwakulindelwe eminyakeni embalwa edlule. Le nhlangano iphawula ukuthi ngo-2025 inzuzo yenzalo yonke yahlala kangcono kunalokho obekulindelwe, ngenxa yokuphathwa okusebenzayo kwesakhiwo sezimali kanye nokubuyiselwa kwesikweletu.
Umbiko ubikezela ukuthi ngo-2025 i-NII izobhalisa ukwehla okumaphakathi, izinombolo eziphansi ezilodwa emabhange amaningi asekhayakodwa kusukela ngo-2026 kuqhubeke, inzuzo izokhula futhi isekelwa yinani elikhulu lemali mboleko kanye nokulungiswa kwezindleko ezithile zezimali.
Ngaphezu kwenzuzo yenzalo, i-Deutsche Bank igcizelela indima ye- amakhomishini njengensika yesibili yemali engenayoAmabhange aseSpain aqinise ibhizinisi lawo ekuphathweni kwempahla, umshwalense kanye nemikhiqizo enenani elongeziwe, okuwavumela ukuthi anciphise ingcindezi yezinye izimali ezivamile futhi ahlukanise imithombo yawo yemali engenayo.
La ukusebenza kahle Leli elinye iphuzu eliqokonyiswa yinhlangano yaseJalimane. Isilinganiso sezindleko zomkhakha ngokwenzuzo sicishe sibe ngu-38% kumayunithi asekhaya, kanye nezibikezelo zokuthuthuka kancane kancane okuzofinyelela ku-35% ngo-2028, ngenxa yokuziphatha kahle kokusebenzisa imali kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kwezobuchwepheshe kanye nokuguqulwa kwedijithali.
Ngokusho kombiko, le nhlanganisela ye izinzuzo eziqinile, izimali ezikhuphukayo, kanye nokusebenza kahle okuthuthukisiwe Lokhu kufanele kuvumele amabhange aseSpain ukuthi alondoloze amazinga aphezulu enzuzo ngisho nasesimweni senzalo esijwayelekile, into okungeyona yonke imikhakha engayisho kulesi sigaba somjikelezo.
Isikweletu, ikhwalithi yempahla, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemali
I-Deutsche Bank igcizelela futhi Indima yesikweletu njengenjini eyengeziwe yokukhulaEkupheleni kuka-2025, ibhalansi esele yezikweletu zemalimboleko eSpain ikhule cishe ngo-3,7% unyaka nonyaka, kuyilapho isikweletu ezinkampanini sikhuphuke cishe ngo-3%, okuqinisekisa ushintsho eminyakeni yokuncipha kwezindleko ngemva kwenkinga yezezimali.
Ngokusho kwabahlaziyi, lokhu kuthuthuka akuyona into eyenzeka kanye kuphela, kodwa kunalokho Lokhu kubeka isisekelo sokukhula okuqhubekayo kwenzuzo engenayo eminyakeni ezayo.Ukubuya kwesikweletu, kanye nomsebenzi webhizinisi othuthukisiwe, kusekela ukuqagela kwemali engenayo kanye nezilinganiso ze-RoTE zango-2027.
La ikhwalithi yempahla Lesi esinye isici esibalulekile. Lo mkhakha ugcina izinga lokungathembeki elingaba ngu-2,78% kanye nezindleko ezizinzile zengozi, amazinga abonisa isimo sokujwayelekile komnotho kanye nokuhlakanipha okukhulu ekunikezeni imali mboleko uma kuqhathaniswa nemijikelezo yangaphambilini.
Konke lokhu kuhumushela ku-a ukukhiqizwa kwemali okunamandla kwemvelo, okuvumela izinhlangano ukuthi ziqhubeke nokuvuza abanikazi bamasheya ngezabelo kanye nokuthengwa kabusha kwamasheya ngaphandle kokubeka engcupheni ukuqina kwayo kwezezimali. I-Deutsche Bank ikholelwa ukuthi lokhu kulinganisela phakathi kokukhula, inzuzo, kanye nokuzinza kungenye yezinto ezichaza intshisekelo yabatshalizimali bamazwe ngamazwe emabhange aseSpain.
Ngalezi zithako, inhlangano yaseJalimane iphetha ngokuthi Amabhange e-Ibex anikeza ingozi encane kakhulu kunemakethe elindele njengamanje.Nakuba evuma ukuthi amathuba okukhula awasemakhulu njengoba ayenjalo eminyakeni embalwa edlule, ukholelwa ukuthi kusenendawo yokwenyuka okwengeziwe, ikakhulukazi kulawo mabhange lapho inzuzo ethuthukisiwe ingakabonakali ngokugcwele entengweni.
Ngemva kokubuyekezwa komhlaba wonke kweDeutsche Bank, isimo samabhange aseSpain sichazwa njengomkhakha, naphezu kokwanda okukhulu oye waqoqa, Iyaqhubeka nokuhlanganisa amandla okukhula kanye nezinzuzo eziphezulu zesakhiwo kanye nezingozi ezilinganiselwe.Amabhange amakhulu omhlaba wonke, kanye neSabadell kanye neBankinter, aphakathi kwalawo akhanga kakhulu, kanti iCaixaBank kanye ne-Unicaja banikeza amandla angcono kakhulu, kodwa anezisekelo eziqinile. Sekukonke, amabhange e-Ibex ahlala eyinsika yezimakethe zaseSpain naseYurophu esikhathini esiphakathi, uma nje isimo sezomnotho esingcono esibikezelwe yisikhungo saseJalimane sibonakala.
