Isimo ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe sesibe sibi kakhulu muva nje, futhi, njengoba bekulindelekile, iBhange Elikhulu laseYurophu alizange lihlale lingenzi lutho. Ngemva kweminyaka ecishe ibe mithathu yokuzola maqondana nokunyakaza kwezinga lenzalo, isikhungo esiholwa nguChristine Lagarde sinqume ukuthatha isinyathelo sokunciphisa ukungaqiniseki kwezomnotho okubangelwe ukuqubuka kwengxabano muva nje eMpumalanga Ephakathi, isifunda okuhlala kuzwakala sengathi sithimula kwaso kubangela wonke umhlaba ukuba ubanjwe umkhuhlane.
Naphezu kokuba abaningi belindele isinyathelo esinzima kakhulu, umongameli waseFrance ukhethe ukuqapha enkulumweni yakhe ePhalamende laseYurophu, echaza ukuthi nakuba lesi sibhicongo singesinye esingenakunakwa, asikabi sesimweni sokwesaba okukhulu. Umqondo uwukugcina indlela eguquguqukayo neqhutshwa idatha , ngaphandle kokushesha ufinyelele esiphethweni ngezithembiso zangaphambi kwesikhathi zokwanda kwesikhathi esizayo, ikakhulukazi manje njengoba kubonakala sengathi kukhona ukuphumula okuncane kwezombusazwe okuzayo.
Isinyathelo sokuqala ebhodini lezinhlobo
Uma sibheka izixazululo ze-brass tacks, i-ECB Governing Council ivumile ngazwi linye ngoJuni 11 ukuphakamisa amazinga enzalo ngamaphesenti angu-0,25, okwenza izinga lokulinganisa libe ngu-2,25%. Lokhu kunyuka, yize kungase kubonakale kukuncane ekuqaleni, kubaluleke kakhulu ngoba kuwukukhuphuka kokuqala kusukela ekupheleni kuka-2023 futhi kuyimpendulo eqondile ekwenyukeni kwezindleko zezimpahla eziyisisekelo njengophethiloli kanye nomanyolo. Isithunzi sokuvalwa kweStrait of Hormuz sasiphezu kwaso sonke isinqumo, njengoba le ndawo ibalulekile ekugelezeni kahle kukawoyela emhlabeni jikelele.
Into exakile ukuthi lesi sinyathelo sathathwa ngaphambi nje kokuba kuqale ingxoxo yesivumelwano sokuqala esifundeni, kodwa uLagarde ukubeke kwacaca ukuthi ukulungiswa kwakufanele kunoma yiziphi izimo ochwepheshe bakhe ababezicabanga. Abafuni ukubhajwa bengalindele futhi bakhetha ukuba sesikhundleni esihle sanoma yisiphi isenzakalo esingalindelekile esingase sivele, njengoba okuhlangenwe nakho kweminyaka yamuva kusifundise ukuthi ukuzinza kungawa ngokuphazima kweso.
Kulesi simo, umongameli ugcizelele ukuthi i-ECB ayizibophezele endleleni eqondile. Lokhu kusho ukuthi bazobuyekeza isimo inyanga nenyanga, noma kunalokho, ukuhlangana ngemihlangano. Umgomo uwukuba impendulo ihlale ilingana nokushaqeka kwangempela kokunikezwa kwempahla, ngaleyo ndlela kugwenywe ukucindezela ngokweqile umnotho ngenkathi futhi kuvinjelwa amanani ukuthi angakhuphuki ngendlela engalawuleki.
Umbono wokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nesici samandla
Uma sibheka izibalo ezivela eFrankfurt, isimo sicacile: amanani kagesi akhuphuke kakhulu, ikakhulukazi ngaphezu kuka-10% ngo-Ephreli nangoMeyi. Lokhu kunyuse ukwehla kwamandla emali kwe-eurozone ku-3,2% , okuyisibalo esethusayo, kodwa okufanele sehle kancane kancane, ngokusho kwe-ECB. Izibikezelo zabo zamanje zibonisa ukuthi sizoqeda u-2026 ngokwehla kwamandla emali okungu-3% nokuthi, ngo-2028, sizobe sesibuyele emgomweni ofiselekayo ongu-2% othandwa kakhulu ngababhange abaphakathi.
Okunikeza abahlaziyi ukuthula kwengqondo okukhulu ukuthi abantu abavamile abakakholelwa ukuthi lokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo kuzohlala phakade. Lokhu yilokho okubizwa ngokuthi ukulindela okuqinile, futhi kubalulekile ukuvimbela ukukhuphuka okuyingozi. Noma kunjalo, ukukhuphuka kwamandla kagesi okuyinhloko sekufinyelele ku-2,6% , okubonisa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwezindleko zamandla sekuqalile kakade ukuthinta eminye imikhiqizo nezinsizakalo ebhasikidini lethu lokuthenga lansuku zonke.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhula komnotho we-eurozone kuzoba kancane kunalokho esingathanda. I-GDP kulindeleke ukuthi ikhuphuke ngo-0,8% kulo nyaka, ngaphambi kokuzama ukukhuphukela ku-1,3% ngonyaka ozayo. I-ECB kufanele iphathe ibhalansi ebucayi kakhulu: kumele ipholise amanani ngaphandle kokwenza umnotho uqine , umsebenzi odinga ukunemba kokuhlinzwa kanye nekhanda elipholile phambi kwezihloko zezindaba zezepolitiki esizizwa njalo ekuseni.
Impendulo yemakethe kanye nombono waseSpain
Le ndaba iqashwe ngokucophelela naseSpain. UNgqongqoshe Wezobulungiswa uJosé Luis Escrivá ugcizelele ukubaluleka okubalulekile kokuthi i-ECB ihlale iqaphile ukuze ivimbele imiphumela emibi yesigaba sesibili. Lokhu kusho ukugwema isimo lapho ukukhuphuka kwamanani kaphethiloli kubangela ukukhushulwa kwamaholo okungalawuleki , okuholela ekukhuphukeni kwamanani kaphethiloli, okudala umjikelezo omubi okunzima kakhulu ukuwunqamula uma usuqalile.
Ezimakethe zezimali, imibono ihlukene kancane. Abanye bakholelwa ukuthi iBhange Elikhulu laseYurophu lenze ngokuxhamazela kakhulu ngalokhu kukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo futhi mhlawumbe bekufanele lilinde ukubona ukuthi isivumelwano sokuthula siyaqina yini. Kodwa-ke, eminye imikhakha, njengeyamabhange, iyakwamukela lokhu kukhuphuka okuncane, njengoba kubavumela ukuthi bathuthukise ikhono labo lokukhiqiza inzuzo ngemuva kwesikhathi semingcele emincane kakhulu. Amathuba akhona nakweminye imikhakha, njengobuhlakani bokwenziwa kanye nezinsizakusebenza, ezivame ukubhekana nesiphepho kangcono ngezikhathi zokungaqiniseki.
Ngamafuphi, kubonakala sengathi i-ECB icacile ukuthi ayikwazi ukuyeka ukuqapha kwayo. Nakuba intengo yebhareli likawoyela isanda kunikeza ikhefu elincane, lehla ngaphansi kwama-$80, ubuthakathaka bendawo yempi budinga ukubhekwa eduze . Asibhekene nenkinga yobukhulu bobhubhane noma ukuhlaselwa kwe-Ukraine, ikakhulukazi njengoba izinqubomgomo zezimali zingasakhulisi okwamanje, kodwa ukuqina kuzohlala kuyisihluthulelo sokuqinisekisa ukuthi umnotho waseYurophu awulahlekelwa yindlela yawo phakathi kwalesi siphithiphithi samazwe ngamazwe.
