I-OPEC+ oil alliance, eholwa yiSaudi Arabia neRussia , ikhethe ukugcina ukukhiqizwa kwayo kukawoyela ongahluziwe kungashintshi , ibambe izinga lokuphakelwa kwamanje okungenani inyanga ezayo. Lesi sinqumo siza phakathi kokungezwani okukhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nokwenyuka okukhulu kwamanani kawoyela emhlabeni jikelele, okugcina ohulumeni nezinkampani zamandla, ikakhulukazi eYurophu, bekhathazekile.
Lesi sinyathelo savunyelwana ngaso engqungqutheleni emfushane yongqongqoshe ebibanjwe ngeSonto phakathi kwezikhulu zamandla kanye nowoyela zabakhiqizi abakhulu baleli qembu. Naphezu kokunyuka kwentengo okubangelwa ukungezwani phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran , inhlangano ikhethe ukungenzi izinguquko ngokushesha ezinhlelweni zayo, ibeka phambili ukuzinza kwemakethe kunokulungisa ngomzuzu wokugcina.
Isinqumo esihlanganisa ukumiswa kokwanda kokunikezwa
I-OPEC+ iqinisekisile ukuthi, okwamanje, ngeke iqalise kabusha ukwanda komkhiqizo okuhlelelwe uMashi 2026. Lesi sinqumo siqinisekisa isivumelwano esafinyelelwa ngoNovemba 2, 2025, lapho iqembu likhetha ukumisa ukwanda kancane kancane kokuhlinzekwa ngenxa yokushintshashintsha kwesizini kanye nokungaqiniseki ngesidingo somhlaba wonke.
Esitatimendeni esikhishwe ngemuva komhlangano, ongqongqoshe bagcizelele ukuthi umbono womnotho womhlaba wonke ubhekwa njengozinzile nokuthi "izisekelo zamanje zemakethe kawoyela" azisho ukuthi kufanele kube noshintsho kwinqubomgomo yokukhiqiza okwamanje. Lo myalezo, oqondiswe ezimakethe nakubathengi, uhlose ukuveza ukuthi ngeke kube khona okunye ukushaqeka ohlangothini lokuhlinzeka.
Amazwe ayisishiyagalombili abalulekile kulo mfelandawonye—iSaudi Arabia, iRussia, i-United Arab Emirates, i-Iraq, iKuwait, iKazakhstan, i-Algeria, ne-Oman —ayehlelelwe ukubuyela emuva kancane kancane, phakathi kuka-Ephreli noDisemba 2025, ingxenye enkulu yokunciphisa ukukhiqizwa ngokuzithandela okuqaliswe kusukela ngo-2023 ukuqinisa amanani kawoyela. Phakathi nalezo zinyanga, ukwenyuka kwanyanga zonke kwafinyelela kumabhareli ayizigidi ezingu-2,9 ngosuku (mbd) , okulingana cishe no-3% womkhiqizo womhlaba wonke.
Noma kunjalo, leli qembu lisazodinga ukubuyisa imiphongolo engaphezu kwesigidi ngosuku ukuze liguqule ngokuphelele ukwehliswa kokuzithandela kwangaphambilini, okuhambisana nokwehliswa kwemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-2,2 ngosuku kanye nomunye wemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-1,65 ngosuku. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ekwindla kwaholela i-OPEC+ ukuthi imemezele ukumiswa kokwenyuka komkhiqizo ngoJanuwari, uFebhuwari, kanye noMashi ka-2026.
Okwamanje, inhlangano igcizelela ukuthi amazwe ahilelekile anelungelo lokuqalisa kabusha ukukhiqizwa okwandisiwe kusukela ngo-Ephreli , uma nje izimo zemakethe zivuma. Ngenxa yalokhu, ongqongqoshe babize enye ingqungquthela yocingo ngomhlaka-1 Mashi, lapho bazohlola khona ukuthi baphinde bavuselele yini uhlelo lokupompa olwandisiwe noma banwebe imikhawulo yamanje.
Amazwe ayisishiyagalombili agcina ukunciphisa ngokuzithandela ngale kwemingcele esemthethweni.
Isinqumo sokumisa ukukhiqizwa sisekelwe ekuzibophezeleni kwabakhiqizi abayisishiyagalombili abasebenzisa ukunciphisa okwengeziwe ngokuzithandela, okuhlukile kwizilinganiso ezisemthethweni ezibekwe yi-OPEC+. Ngokusho kwesitatimende esisemthethweni, iRussia, iSaudi Arabia, i-United Arab Emirates, i-Iraq, i-Algeria, iKuwait, iKazakhstan, kanye ne-Oman zizogcina amazinga okukhiqiza amanje ngoMashi 2026, ngaphandle kokusebenzisa ukwanda obekuxoxwa ngakho.
Lawa mazwe aphikise ngokuthi, endaweni yokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwentengo kanye nesidingo esingaguquki, ukuvikela ukuzinza kwemakethe kudinga ukugwema izinguquko zokukhiqiza ngokuzumayo. Akukhona nje ukusekela imali engenayo yabathumeli bamafutha angcolile, kodwa futhi nokulawula isimo sokuguquguquka okukhulu okungathinta umnotho ongenisa impahla, njengaleyo yaseYurophu, ebhekene kakhulu nokushintshashintsha kwentengo ngokuzumayo.
NgoDisemba 2024, i-OPEC+ yavuma ukwelula kuze kube sekupheleni kuka-2026 ukunciphisa ngokuhlanganyela imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-1,65 ngosuku , okungaphezu kokulungiswa ngokuzithandela kwemiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-2,2 ngosuku abakhiqizi abakhulu abaqala ukuyihoxisa kancane kancane kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2025. Ukuma kwamanje kwenza ingxenye yalowo mzamo wokuzibamba ibe mfushane.
Le nhlangano ngokwayo iveza ukuthi izinyathelo zokulungisa ezathathwa kusukela ngo-2023 zihlose ukulungisa ukuguquguquka kwemakethe kawoyela , ukuvimbela kokubili ukuwa kwentengo kanye nokwenyuka kwentengo okungalawulwa. Ngale ndlela, ukumiswa komkhiqizo kuchazwa njengophawu lokuthi i-OPEC+ ikhetha ukwenza ngokuqapha esimweni esiphawulwe yizingozi zezwe kanye nokungabaza ngokukhula komhlaba.
Kwamazwe e-European Union, amazwe angenisa uwoyela ongahluziwe kakhulu futhi athembele kakhulu emandleni angaphandle, leli cebo lisho ukuphila ngamanani aphezulu kodwa abikezelwa kalula . Nakuba ukunciphisa umkhiqizo kusiza ekusekeleni amanani, kunciphisa namathuba okwehla kwentengo okungase kuvimbele ukutshalwa kwezimali emandleni okukhiqiza futhi kudale izithiyo zesikhathi esizayo.
Ikomidi lokuqapha liyasekela ukuqhubeka kwesivumelwano
Ngesikhathi esifanayo nomhlangano wongqongqoshe, iKomidi Lokuqapha Elihlangene LoNgqongqoshe be-OPEC+ (JMMC) lahlangana ngalolo suku futhi lancoma ukuthi imingcele yamanje yesivumelwano sokukhiqiza ingashintshiwe. Ngemva kokubukeza idatha kaNovemba noDisemba 2025, indikimba yaphawula izinga eliphezulu lokuthobela imithetho kwamazwe alandela iSimemezelo Sokubambisana.
I-JMMC igcizelela ukuthi ukuziphatha okuboniswe ngamalungu e-alliance kuyisihluthulelo sempumelelo yesu elihlangene. Eqinisweni, amazwe adlule imingcele yawo nganoma yisiphi isikhathi anxuswa ukuba alungise lokho okweqile ngokwezikhathi ezibuyekeziwe, kodwa ngaphandle kokwethula izinyathelo ezintsha zokujezisa noma ukubuyekezwa okukhulu kwezabelo.
Umhlangano olandelayo waleli komidi lokuqapha uhlelelwe umhlaka -5 kuMbasa , lapho kuzotholakala khona ulwazi olwengeziwe mayelana nokuthuthuka komnotho womhlaba, izibikezelo zesidingo, kanye nomthelela wangempela wokungezwani kwezepolitiki. Ngokusekelwe kulolu lwazi, i-OPEC+ izonquma ukuthi izolungisa yini imephu yayo noma yandise uhlaka lokukhiqiza lwamanje.
Iziphathimandla zenhlangano zigcizelela ukuthi umgomo ukugcina ibhalansi efanele phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo , kugwenywe kokubili ukugcwala kukawoyela ongahluziwe okwehlisa amanani kanye nokuntuleka okwenyusa izindleko kubathengi kanye nezimboni. Lo mbono ubaluleke kakhulu eYurophu, lapho imikhakha efana nezokuthutha, izindiza, kanye nemboni enkulu isathembele kakhulu emikhiqizweni kaphethiloli.
Ukuguquguquka kwentengo: I-Brent ne-WTI ziyanda
Ukumiswa komkhiqizo kuza ngesikhathi lapho amanani kawoyela ongahluziwe ekhuphuka kakhulu . I-Brent crude, okuyisilinganiso esibalulekile eYurophu, iqale unyaka cishe ngo-$60,75 ngebhareli futhi yavalwa ngoLwesihlanu olwedlule ngo-$70,71, okumele inzuzo yamasonto onke engu-8,64% ngemuva kokwengeza u-$5,62.
Khonamanjalo, i-West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, okuyisilinganiso e-United States kodwa futhi elandelwa eduze yizimakethe zaseYurophu, ikhuphuke ngo-7,6% esikhathini esifanayo, yengeza u-$4,58 ukuze ifinyelele ku-$65,21 ngebhareli . Ngokwezibalo ezihlanganisiwe, la mazinga amele cishe u-12% aphezulu kunasekuqaleni kukaJanuwari, okubonisa ingcindezi ephezulu yezinsuku zakamuva.
Ngemuva kwalokhu kukhuphuka kwentengo akukhona nje isu le-OPEC+, kodwa ngaphezu kwakho konke, ukwesaba ukungqubuzana okungenzeka phakathi kwe-United States ne-Iran , omunye wabakhiqizi ababalulekile benhlangano. I-Iran njengamanje ingumkhiqizi wesine ngobukhulu we-OPEC, enamabhareli angaba yizigidi ezingu-3,3 ngosuku, umthamo obalulekile ekulinganisweni kwemakethe.
Abahlaziyi baxwayisa ngokuthi ukuhlasela noma ukwanda kwezempi okuthinta iRiphabhulikhi YamaSulumane kungaholela ekuphazamisekeni okukhulu kokunikezwa kwempahla , kokubili ngenxa yokwehla kokuthunyelwa kwayo ngqo kanye nomthelela emizileni yasolwandle yesifunda. Izigameko ezifanayo zokungezwani phakathi kwe-Iran ne-Israel zenzeka ngo-2024, okwenza intengo yebhareli likawoyela yaba cishe ngama-$91.
Kulesi simo, isinqumo se-OPEC+ sokungakhulisi ukunikezwa kwempahla sinezela olunye ungqimba lokungaqiniseki kubathengi baseYurophu. Ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani e-Brent crude akuhambisani nemizamo yokulawula ukukhuphuka kwamanani e-eurozone futhi kuphoqa ohulumeni ukuthi babuyekeze izibikezelo zabo zokusebenzisa amandla , kokubili emakhaya nasezimbonini.
Izingozi ze-geopolitical: i-Strait of Hormuz ibalulekile
Ngale kwezibalo zokukhiqiza, esinye sezici ezikhathaza kakhulu izimakethe ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi inkinga phakathi kweWashington neTehran ingagcina ithinte iStrait of Hormuz , indlela yolwandle eqondisiwe lapho kudlula khona cishe u-20% kawoyela emhlabeni. Noma yikuphi ukuphazamiseka kulo mzila kungaholela ngokushesha ekungezwani kwamanani.
Ochwepheshe abaxoxiswane nezinhlangano ezahlukahlukene zamazwe ngamazwe bayavuma ukuthi ngisho nokuvinjelwa kancane kwalo mzila kungenza intengo kawoyela ibe ngu-$90 noma u-$100 ngebhareli zingakapheli izinsuku. EYurophu, engenisa ingxenye enkulu kawoyela wayo ongahluziwe ovela eMpumalanga Ephakathi nakwezinye izifunda ezixhunywe yilo mzila, isimo esinjalo singakhuphula kakhulu izindleko zokuhamba, zokushisa, kanye nezokukhiqiza izimboni.
Izitatimende zoMholi Ophakeme wase-Iran, u-Ali Khamenei, nazo azizange zenze lutho ekunciphiseni ukungezwani. Uxwayise ngokuthi noma yikuphi ukungqubuzana kwezempi ne-United States kungakhula kube yimpi yesifunda , umyalezo ohunyushwa yizimakethe njengophawu lokuthi le ngxabano ingasakazeka futhi ithinte amazwe amaningi akhiqizayo esifundeni.
Kulesi simo, ukuma kwe-OPEC+ ngokuqapha—ukugcina isu layo nokugwema izinguquko ezisheshayo—kuhlose ukunikeza ukubikezela okuthile, yize kungasusi izingozi ezivela kwezepolitiki. Eqinisweni, iPhini likaNdunankulu waseRussia u-Alexander Novak ngokwakhe ukhombe ukuthi imakethe kawoyela iyaqhubeka nokubonisa ukuguquguquka okukhulu, okuhlobene kakhulu nalezi zici zangaphandle.
Kwi-European Union kanye neSpain, ezithembele ekuthengisweni kukawoyela ongahluziwe, ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwentengo yebhareli kungaba nemiphumela eqondile ezindlekweni zamandla, ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, kanye nokuncintisana kwebhizinisi . Ngakho-ke, bobabili ohulumeni baseBrussels kanye nohulumeni bezwe baqapha eduze ukungezwani okuguqukayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nezimpendulo ezivela ku-OPEC+.
Obani amalungu e-OPEC+ futhi ukukhiqizwa kuhlanganiswa kanjani?
I-OPEC yasungulwa ngo-1960 eBaghdad yiSaudi Arabia, iVenezuela, i-Iran, i-Iraq, neKuwait, futhi ngokuhamba kwesikhathi yengeze amalungu amasha, manje ahlanganisa amazwe ayishumi nambili athumela kwamanye amazwe. Ngo-2016, leli qembu lanquma ukuthatha isinyathelo esengeziwe futhi lasayina isivumelwano sokubambisana nabanye abakhiqizi abayishumi , okuhlanganisa iRussia, iMexico, iKazakhstan, ne-Azerbaijan, okwadala ubumbano lwamanje olwaziwa ngokuthi i-OPEC+.
Ngaphezu kwamalungu asungula le nkampani, i-OPEC+ ihlanganisa abakhiqizi abazimele njenge- Azerbaijan, i-Bahrain, i-Brazil, i-Brunei, i-Kazakhstan, i-Malaysia, i-Mexico, i-Oman, i-Russia, i-Sudan, ne-South Sudan . Bonke bahlela njalo izabelo zabo zokukhiqiza ukuze bazame ukuzinzisa imakethe yomhlaba wonke futhi bagweme ukungalingani okukhulu phakathi kokunikezwa kanye nesidingo.
Indlela evamile yokusebenza ihlanganisa imihlangano esemthethweni yongqongqoshe , lapho kubekwa khona imigomo emikhulu yokukhiqiza, nemihlangano yeKomidi Elihlangene Lokuqapha Longqongqoshe, elinomthwalo wemfanelo wokwengamela ukuqaliswa kwalokho okuvunyelwene ngakho, ukubuyekeza idatha ephakelwayo kanye nokusikisela ukulungiswa uma kudingeka.
Empeleni, izinqumo ze-OPEC+ zinomthelela oqondile emananini akhokhwa ngabathengi namabhizinisi emhlabeni jikelele, kufaka phakathi lawo ase-European Union. Izenzo zomfelandawonye zibonakala ngokushesha ezimakethe ezithengisa ngobuningi, futhi kusukela lapho zibonakala ezindleleni zikaphethiloli, ezokuthutha, kanye nezokuthutha , ezibaluleke kakhulu kwezomnotho ovulekile njengeSpain.
Ngakho-ke, noma yisiphi isimemezelo mayelana nokunciphisa umkhiqizo, ukwanda, noma ukumiswa kwawo silandelwa eduze ngabatshalizimali, izinkampani zamandla, kanye neziphathimandla zezomnotho zaseYurophu, okumele balungise izibikezelo zabo ukuze zivumelane nokwehla kwamandla emali, ukukhula, kanye nebhalansi yokuhweba ngenxa yalezi zinqumo.
Isithombe esishiywe yilo mhlangano wakamuva we-OPEC+ singesinye sezinhlangano ezikhetha ukugcina umkhiqizo umile ngenkathi imakethe ihlaziya ukwenyuka kwentengo kwakamuva kanye nesimo sezwe eMpumalanga Ephakathi sicaca. Njengoba kusekhona ukunciphisa ngokuzithandela, ukuziphatha okuphezulu ekuhlangabezaneni nezilinganiso, kanye nemihlangano emisha ohlelweni—uMashi 1 ukubuyekeza ukwenyuka kanye no-Ephreli 5 ukuhlola isivumelwano—le nhlangano igcine indawo yokushintsha, kodwa okwamanje, ikhetha ubuhlakani, indlela iYurophu neSpain abayibhekile eduze ngenxa yomthelela wayo oqondile ezindleleni zamandla kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali.
