Umbiko wakamuva wemisebenzi wase-US uthumele umyalezo ocacile: imakethe yezabasebenzi yaseMelika Kuhlala isikhathi eside kakhulu kunokwesaba.Naphezu kwezinyanga zezixwayiso mayelana nokwehla okungenzeka, izibalo zikaJanuwari zimangaze kakhulu futhi ziphoqelekile abatshalizimali ukuze balungise kabusha, cishe ngokushesha, amathemba abo mayelana neFederal Reserve.
Ukudalwa kwe Amaholo angewona awezolimo ayi-130.000 NgoJanuwari, kuzophindeka kabili isibikezelo esivunyelwene ngaso (cishe imisebenzi engu-65.000), kanye nokwehla kwenani izinga lokungasebenzi ku-4,3% Baqinise umbono wokuthi umnotho omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni usamile, yize kunezingqinamba ezithile. EYurophu, ikakhulukazi eSpain, lolu lwazi luba yi- Isikhuthazi esiqondile samasheya, amabhondi kanye nezimalingoba ibeka isimiso sokunciphisa izinga lenzalo e-US kanye, ngokwengeziwe, nesikhala se-ECB sokuzikhandla.
Umbiko oqinile: imisebenzi eminingi kanye nokuntuleka kwemisebenzi okuncane kunalokho obekulindelwe
Ngokusho kwe-Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), ngoJanuwari, kwadalwa imisebenzi Imisebenzi eyi-130.000 ingcebo ngaphandle komkhakha wezolimo, uma kuqhathaniswa nengu-48.000 ngoDisemba futhi ingaphezulu kakhulu kwalokho okwakubikezelwe osomnotho abaningi. Ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi kwehle ngengxenye eyodwa kweziyishumi, kusukela ku-4,4% kuya ku-4,3%, ifinyelela ezingeni layo eliphansi kakhulu ezinyangeni ezinhlanu.
Ukumangala akugcini nje esihlokweni. inhlolovo yasekhaya —olunye uhlangothi lombiko, lapho izinga lokungasebenzi livela khona—lukhombisa ukwanda kwabantu abasebenzayo abangu-528.000 uma kuqhathaniswa nokwanda kwabantu abangu-387.000 emsebenzini. Lo mehluko uchaza ukwehla kokungasebenzi, futhi uza no- izinga lokubamba iqhaza elingu-62,5%, ephakeme kancane, okubonisa ukuthi Abantu abaningi bafuna umsebenzi futhi. ngaphandle kokubangela ukungasebenzi kukhuphuke kakhulu.
Ngokuningiliziwe ngomkhakha, Iholo lemboni ezimele likhule ngemisebenzi eyi-172.000, enendima ehamba phambili ku- usizo lwezempilo nolwezenhlalookwengeze imisebenzi engaba ngu-124.000. Izinsizakalo zokwakha, zobungcweti nezebhizinisi, kanye, ngezinga elincane, ukukhiqiza nakho kube negalelo ekukhuleni, kuyilapho Ukuqashwa kwabantu emkhakheni kahulumeni kwehle futhi, okuphazanyiswa ukuncishiswa okusha kuhulumeni kahulumeni.
I-Los isilinganiso somholo wehora Bakhuphuke cishe ngo-0,4% inyanga nenyanga futhi bayaqhubeka nokukhula cishe ngo-3,7% unyaka nonyaka. Lesi sivinini sihambisana nokwehla kwamandla emali okumaphakathi, kodwa kwanele ukuthi i-Fed iqaphele ingcindezi izindleko zabasebenzi ezingase ziqhubeke nokuyibangela emananini.
Ukubuyekezwa komlando: ukuqashwa okuncane kunalokho obekulindelwe ngo-2025
Kanye nedatha kaJanuwari, i-BLS ishicilele okujwayelekile isibuyekezo somholo waminyaka yonkeUkulungisa izibalo kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2024 kuya kuMashi 2025 zibe nolwazi oluphelele oluvela kwi-Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), umphumela uba ukuthi, phakathi naleso sikhathi, okulandelayo kwakubhaliwe: Imisebenzi eyengeziwe engu-862.000, esezilungiswa phansi manje.
Ngokwendlela engokoqobo, lokhu kusho ukuthi ukudalwa kwemisebenzi ngo-2025 kwakubuthakathaka kakhulu kunalokho obekulindelwe: kusukela ekukhuleni okumaphakathi kwanyanga zonke ekuqaleni okulinganiselwa emisebenzini engu-49.000. Incipha ibe yimisebenzi eyi-15.000 kuphelaNgamanye amazwi, imakethe yezabasebenzi yayiphuma ngonyaka Ukuqashwa okuncane, kanye nokuqashwa okusha okuncane kanye nokuxoshwa okuncane, okuhambisana nomuzwa wokupholisa owawubonakala kwezinye izinkomba.
Noma kunjalo, ukubuyekezwa akubanga nzima njengoba abanye babesaba. Umkhawulo ongokomfanekiso womuntu awukaweqiwa. imisebenzi eyizigidi elahlekile Futhi isilinganiso sokulungiswa kwanyanga zonke—imisebenzi engaphezudlwana kuka-70.000—singaphakathi kwebanga elicatshangelwe yi-Federal Reserve ngokwayo ekuhlaziyeni kwayo kwangaphakathi.
Izazi zezomnotho zigcizelela ukuthi ukulungiswa kwalokho okubizwa ngokuthi imodeli "yokuzalwa nokufa" —elinganisa ibhalansi phakathi kokuvulwa nokuvalwa kwamabhizinisi— kufanele ithuthukise ikhono le-BLS lokubonakalisa iqiniso lamanje kanye nciphisa ubukhulu bezibuyekezo zesikhathi esizayo, ikakhulukazi ngemva kweminyaka ethile engavamile ngenxa yomthelela wobhubhane.
I-AI, ukufuduka, kanye nezinguquko zesakhiwo emakethe yezabasebenzi
Ngale kwezibalo ezithile, umbiko kaJanuwari uhunyushwa ngokubheka amandla amabili amakhulu angaphansi: inqubomgomo yokufuduka futhi i ukwamukelwa okusheshayo kobuhlakani bokwenziwa (AI) emikhakheni ethile. Abahlaziyi abaningana baveza ukuthi ukuqina kwama-visa nokuxoshwa kwabantu abaningi kuye kunciphisa ukutholakala kwabasebenzi, okudala imakethe engavamile: ukuqashwa okumbalwa, kodwa futhi nokudilizwa okumbalwa.
Kulesi simo, ukubuya kukaJanuwari kubhekwa njengophawu lokuthi izinkampani zibuyela ku- vuselela ukuqasha Uma ukulungiswa kwethempulethi okubonakala kakhulu sekuhloliwe, ikakhulukazi ku ubuchwepheshe kanye nokuthuthwa kwempahlaabamemezele izinkulungwane zokunciphisa ezinyangeni zamuva. Noma kunjalo, abanye ochwepheshe bakholelwa ukuthi umnotho wase-US udinga okungenani imisebenzi emisha engu-150.000 ngenyanga ukuze kuthathwe ukukhula kwabantu abasebenzayo, okwenza kucace ukuthi, naphezu kwedatha enhle kaJanuwari, imakethe yezabasebenzi ayikhuphuki.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isivinini lapho i-AI isetshenziswa khona Emikhakheni efana nezezimali, izinsizakalo zobungcweti, kanye nobuchwepheshe, ukuzenzekela kunomthelela omkhulu ekudingweni kwabasebenzi. Ukuvulwa kwemisebenzi kuye kwehla emisebenzini eye yamukela ukuzenzekela kakhulu, kuyilapho eminye imikhakha—njengokunakekelwa kwempilo—iqhubeka nokukhiqiza imisebenzi ngesivinini esiphezulu, ngokwengxenye ngoba kunzima kakhulu ukuyishintsha ngesofthiwe.
Ucwaningo lwe-JOLTS kusukela ngoDisemba lwase luvele lubonise ukwehla okukhulu kwe- ukunikezwa komsebenziezingaphansi kwamazinga angaphambi kobhubhane. Namuhla kukhona cishe Izikhala zemisebenzi ezingu-0,87 zomuntu ngamunye ongasebenzikude kakhulu nenani elikhulu lezikhala ezimbili zomsebenzi ngomuntu ongasebenzi ngo-2022. Ukwesula ngokuzithandela okumbalwa kanye nokwehla kwenani labasebenzi kukhomba imakethe eye yasuka ekushodeni kwabasebenzi yaya esimweni sokuba ibhalansi enkulu, ngisho noma kunenqwaba yabasebenzi.
Ukusabela kweFederal Reserve: isikhala esincane sokunciphisa amanani
Imakethe yezabasebenzi eqhubeka kahle kunalokho obekulindelwe inomthelela osheshayo kunqubomgomo yezimali: I-Fed ayisheshi ukwehlisa amazinga enzaloNgemva kokufunda idatha, izimakethe zebhondi zasabela ngokwehla kwamanani kanye nokwenyuka kwenzuzo, ikakhulukazi eziphethweni ezimfushane ze-curve, okuyizona ezibucayi kakhulu ezinqumweni zebhange eliphakathi.
Inzuzo yebhondi yeminyaka emibili ye-Treasury Bakhuphuke ngamaphuzu amaningana ayisisekelo. ngokushesha ngemva kokushicilelwa kombiko, kuyilapho ukushintshana kwezinga lenzalo kuqala ukubonakala amathuba angaphansi kuka-5% kokuncishiswa emhlanganweni kaMashi. Sekukonke, abatshalizimali manje sebebiza cishe ukunciphisa amaphuzu amabili ayisisekelo angu-25 kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, bese bebeka isinyathelo sokuqala ngoJulayi, ngokuphambene nezibikezelo zangaphambilini ezazikhomba ngoJuni.
Kukhona impikiswano ethile ngaphakathi kwe-Fed uqobo. Abanye abenzi benqubomgomo bakholelwa ukuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi isizinzile nokuthi ibhange eliphakathi lisesimweni "Isikhundla esihle" sokulinda idatha eyengeziwe ngaphambi kokuthatha isinyathelo. Abanye besaba ukuthi uma amazinga enzalo aphezulu egcinwa isikhathi eside kakhulu, ukupholisa kuzogcina kuthinte kakhulu umsebenzi kumakota azayo.
Nokho, umbono ovamile ukuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi edala imisebenzi engu-130.000 ngenyanga futhi igcine ukungasebenzi kusondele ku-4%. akuthetheleli ukuncishiswa okuphuthumayoNgaphandle kokuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kwehla kakhulu. Eqinisweni, abahlaziyi abaningana baxwayisa ngokuthi isithiyo sokwehliswa kwamanani manje sesiyinkinga enkulu. kuphakeme kunalokho imakethe eyayikulindele emasontweni ambalwa edlule.
Umthelela ezimakethe zamasheya zaseYurophu, amabhondi kanye nezimali
Umbiko wemisebenzi wase-US awuzange uhlale ngaphesheya kwe-Atlantic. EYurophu, ikakhulukazi eSpain, idatha ibe nomthelela osheshayo kuma-indices, imali engenayo engaguquki, kanye namazinga okushintshaniswa kwemali. Imakethe yamasheya yaseSpain yaqala ngethoni enhle, kodwa njengoba umyalezo "wezinga lenzalo ephezulu isikhathi eside" e-US wawusuthathwa, I-Ibex 35 iphenduke phansi. futhi kwaphela ngokwehla okumaphakathi.
Imakethe yamasheya yaseSpain, eyayifinyelele amazinga aphezulu aqoshwe phansi ezinsukwini ezedlule, yavala iseshini ngokwehla cishe ngo-1%. 0,4%, ewela ngaphansi kwamaphuzu ayi-18.100. Amabhange kanye namasheya ajikelezayo kakhulu Babonise ukuzwela okuthile ekushintsheni kokulindelwe kwezinga lenzalo, kuyilapho imikhakha yokuzivikela kakhulu - njengezinto eziyisisekelo zabathengi noma izinsiza - iphumelela kangcono kancane.
Le ndlela iphindwe kwezinye izimakethe zezwekazi. Izinkomba eziyinhloko ze-eurozone—i-Euro Stoxx 50, i-German DAX, i-French CAC, kanye ne-Italian MIB— Bavale ngombala obomvu.ngokulahlekelwa okuphakathi kuka-0,2% no-0,7%. I-FTSE 100 yaseLondon kuphela ekwazile ukugwema ukwehla, isekelwa yisisindo sayo esikhulu samasheya okuzivikela nawathunyelwa kwamanye amazwe, azuza ku- idola elinamandla.
Kwimali engenayo engaguquki, ama-curve e-European yield abonisa ukunyakaza kwama-Treasury, kanye ukwanda okuncane kwembuyiselo isikweletu sombuso. ESpain, lokhu kwaholela ekukhuleni okuvinjelwe kwebhondi yeminyaka eyi-10, ngokuhambisana nayo yonke ingxenye yemingcele, kanye nokuguquguquka okuncane kwesikweletu sezinkampani, ikakhulukazi ezindabeni ezivela ezikhungweni zezimali.
Emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle, idatha iqinise idola ngokumelene ne-eurongokunciphisa amathuba okuncishiswa kwesilinganiso kusenesikhathi yi-Fed. Idola elinamandla kancane livame ukunikeza ukumelana nezimpahla eziyingozi zaseYurophu, kodwa futhi kusiza ekunciphiseni ukucindezeleka kokwehla kwamandla emali endaweni ye-euro ngokusebenzisa amanani aphansi edola kwezinye izinto zokusetshenziswa uma ihunyushwa ngama-euro.
Lokho iSpain kanye ne-eurozone abazokulahlekelwa yimisebenzi yase-US
Emnothweni waseSpain, ukuziphatha kwemakethe yezabasebenzi yase-US kunemiphumela engaphezu kokusabela kwemakethe yamasheya ngokushesha. amazinga aphezulu isikhathi eside Emnothweni omkhulu kunayo yonke emhlabeni, lokhu kungathinta imephu yendlela yeBhange Elikhulu laseYurophu, okumele ilungise ukwehliswa kwamanani ngaphandle kokubangela ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwemali noma isikweletu sombuso.
Uma i-Fed ihlehlisa ukunciphisa kwayo kuze kube yihlobo, i-ECB izobhekana nenkinga yokuthi thuthukisa ezabo ukuze zisekele ukukhula —esimweni lapho i-eurozone ithuthuka ngesivinini esiphansi kakhulu kune-US— noma thatha isinyathelo ngokuqapha ukuze ugweme ukwanda okungazelelwe komehluko wesilinganiso senzalo, okungabeka ingcindezi ku-euro futhi kubangele ukuguquguquka kwezezimali.
Esimweni esithile saseSpain, idola elinamandla kakhulu kanye nezinga lenzalo eliphezulu lase-US kunemiphumela exubile. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, bangakwazi yenza ukuxhaswa ngemali ngamadola kubize kakhulu kwezinkampani ezithile ezinkulu ezisohlwini kanye nokugeleza kokutshalwa kwezimali okulinganiselwe ezimakethe ezingaphandle. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukukhula okuqinile e-US kusalokhu ukwesekwa kokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe eYurophu, okuhlanganisa imikhakha ehlobene nezwe lethu njengezimoto, izimpahla ezinkulu noma izinsizakalo ezithile zebhizinisi.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuqashwa kwabasebenzi baseMelika sekuphenduke umsebenzi i-thermometer ebalulekile yesifiso somhlaba wonke sokufaka engcupheniYonke into emangazayo noma engemihle kuma-payroll angewona awepulazi ingaholela ekushintsheni okukhulu kuma-premium ayingozi, izindleko zokuxhaswa ngezimali ngamabhange, kanye nokulinganiswa kwezinkampani zaseSpain ezinamabhizinisi e-United States noma ezivezwe kakhulu emjikelezweni wamazwe ngamazwe.
Ukuhlolwa okulandelayo: Ukwehla kwamandla emali kukaJanuwari e-US
Njengoba idatha yokuqashwa isicutshunguliwe manje, ukunaka kushintshela ku I-CPI kaJanuwari e-United StatesLo mbiko, ozoshicilelwa ezinsukwini ezizayo ngemuva kokubambezeleka okubangelwe ukuvalwa kwengxenye kahulumeni, uzoba semqoka ekuqinisekiseni ukuthi umnotho wase-US ubheke esimweni sokuthi ukuhlanzeka okuhlelekile kuyahambisana nokwehliswa kwamanani kamuva noma uma, ngokuphambene nalokho, izingcindezi zamanani ziqhubeka.
Ukuvumelana kulindelwe ukuthi kube nokulinganisela kokubili ezinhlokweni zezihloko kanye namazinga enzalo ayinhloko, okuzovumela i-Fed ukuthi ihlale iqaphile kodwa ingaxinekile kangako. Kodwa-ke, uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kumangalisa ngokuhambisana nemakethe yezabasebenzi eqinile, Indaba "yezinga lenzalo eliphezulu isikhathi eside" izoba namandla., okunemiphumela elandelayo ezimakethe zamasheya kanye namabhondi aseYurophu.
Kubatshalizimali eSpain kanye ne-eurozone, inhlanganisela ukuqashwa kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali e-US Izoqhubeka nokubeka isimo. Imakethe yezabasebenzi engawi noma ishise ngokweqile, kuhlanganiswe namanani aqhubekela phambili ku-2% target, kungaba yisimo esikhululekile kakhulu kokubili kwi-Federal Reserve kanye ne-ECB. Noma yikuphi ukuphambuka okuphawulekayo kulolo mbhalo, kunoma iyiphi indlela, cishe kuzoholela ku- ukuguquguquka okwandisiwe kuma-indices aseYurophu ayinhloko.
Kodwa-ke, umyalezo ovela kusethi yedatha yakamuva ukuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi yase-US, naphezu ko-2025 obuthaka kanye nengcindezi evela ku-AI kanye nokufuduka, Unyaka uqale ngamandla kunalokho obekulindelweLokhu kuye kwashukumisela i-Fed ukuthi ithathe isikhathi sayo ngokuncishiswa kwamanani futhi yaphoqa izimakethe eSpain naseYurophu ukuba ziphile, okungenani okwamanje, ngesimo sokuxhaswa ngezimali esingafaneleki kangako kunalokho abaningi ababekulindele emasontweni ambalwa edlule.
