Umhlaba ubambe umoya futhi ukungezwani okubhebhethekayo phakathi kwe-Israel ne-Iran, isimo esigcina izimakethe, ohulumeni, nezakhamizi zisemaphethelweni. Ukuba khona kwempi evulekile phakathi kwalawa mazwe amabili kudala ukuzamazama komhlaba kwezomnotho kwangempela okuvele kuzwakala emikhakheni ebalulekile, kusukela kwezamandla kuya ekuhwebeni kwamazwe ngamazwe.
Ezinsukwini zokugcina, Izimakethe zamasheya zehle kakhulu emhlabeni, kuyilapho amanani kawoyela enyukile. Lezi zimpendulo ezimakethe zokuqala ziyisandulela semiphumela engase ibe khona yokukhuphuka okujulile nokunesikhathi eside enhliziyweni yeMpumalanga Ephakathi, isifunda esinamasu okugeleza kwezinto ezingavuthiwe nezindlela zohwebo.
Imakethe yamandla ngaphansi kwengcindezi: isici sikawoyela negesi
Ngaso sonke isikhathi ukuntengantenga kuzamazamisa iMpumalanga Ephakathi, Intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe iphendula ngokukhuphuka okumangalisayo. Esimeni samanje, intengo yomphongolo we-Brent crude yeqe ngaphezu kuka-13%, okuwukunyuka okukhulu kwansuku zonke kusukela ekuhlaselweni kwe-Ukraine, ifinyelele ngaphezu kwama-$78. Abahlaziyi baxwayisa ngokuthi, esimweni esibi kakhulu, umgqomo ungafinyelela ku-$130 uma i-Strait of Hormuz ivinjiwe noma imizila yamasu iphazamisekile.
Ukhiye wale alamu uku I-Strait yaseHormuz, umzila wamanzi omncane lapho cishe u-20% kawoyela womhlaba kanye namaphesenti angaphezu kuka-35% okuhweba ngowoyela ongahluziwe osolwandle. Ukube i-Iran ibingavimba le ndima, njengoba iye yasikisela ezikhathini ezidlule, ukunikezwa kwamandla emhlabeni wonke bekungaba sengozini enkulu, kungakhulisi nje kuphela intengo kawoyela kodwa naleyo yegesi yemvelo ewuketshezi, ebaluleke kakhulu eYurophu nase-Asia.
Ngisho noma ukugeleza kwamafutha kunganqanyulwa ngokuphelele, usongo kuHormuz Lokhu kakade sekwanele ukuze kuqhubekisele phambili ukwehla kwamandla emali okulindelwe futhi kukhuphule amanani kaphethiloli. Konke lokhu ngenkathi igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi evela emazweni afana neQatar ngeke ikwazi ukufuna ezinye izindlela kalula, okuqhubekisela phambili ukukhuphula intengo yegesi eYurophu.
Izimakethe ziyasabela: ukuphahlazeka kwezimakethe zamasheya kanye nendiza eya endaweni ephephile
Uvalo luyabonakala ngaphakathi izimakethe zezimali zamazwe ngamazweUkwesaba kuye kwabangela abatshalizimali ukuba bakhiphe imali emakethe yamasheya futhi bayitshale ezindaweni eziphephile zendabuko njengamabhondi kahulumeni negolide, amanani azo awazisile. Izimakethe zamasheya ezinkulu zaseYurophu nase-US zilahlekelwe amandla, kuyilapho amasheya amandla kanye nokuzivikela aphinde akhuphuka ekushiseni kwengxabano.
Izinkampani zezindiza nezinkampani zezokuvakasha zithwele kanzima, zikhombisa ukukhathazeka ngokukhuphuka kwezindleko zikaphethiloli kanye nokuphazamiseka kwemizila yezindiza eya noma ibuya eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Khonamanjalo, izinkampani zikawoyela kanye nosonkontileka bezokuvikela babona ukunyuka kwamanani entengo, balindele ukusetshenziswa kwemali okuphezulu kwezokuphepha namandla.
Amathuba okuthi kumiswe isikhathi eside ukuhweba olwandle, ikakhulukazi ezindaweni ezibucayi njenge-Suez Canal noma i-Indian Ocean, yengeza uphethiloli emlilweni, okuthinta amanani okuthutha kanye nokugeleza kwempahla emhlabeni jikelele.
Imithelela eqondile ekwehleni kwamandla emali nasekukhuleni komnotho
Ukukhuphuka kwentengo kawoyela negesi abe nomthelela oqondile ekwenyukeni kwamandla emali emhlabeni jikeleleUkukhuphuka kwamanani kaphethiloli kubonakala ngokushesha ezindlekweni zokukhiqiza nokuthutha izimpahla eziyisisekelo, ukukhulisa intengo yegrosa kanye nokunciphisa amandla okuthenga ekhaya. Abanye ochwepheshe balinganisela ukuthi njalo ngo-10% ukwenyuka kukawoyela, ukwehla kwamandla emali kungase kukhuphuke cishe ngo-0,4% ngonyaka olandelayo.
Ezomnotho ezincike ikakhulukazi emandleni angenisiwe, afana ne-European Union ne-Japan, igalelo lingaba likhulu nakakhulu: ngaphezu kwezindleko eziphezulu zamandla, Ukukhula kungase kuphole futhi kungase kuvele ingozi ye-stagflation (ukwehla kwamandla emali aphezulu kanye nokukhula okuphansi), i-specter endala eyayivele ikhona ngesikhathi senkinga kawoyela ngeminyaka yawo-70. I-European Central Bank ingase iphoqeleke ukuthi ikhuphule amanani enzalo ukuze aqukathe amanani akhuphukayo, okwenza kube nzima ukuthola kabusha.
Kwezinye izimakethe ezisafufusa, njenge-Mexico, ukuguquguquka kwezimali kunyukile, nokuguquguquka okukhulu kwezinga lokushintshisana uma liqhathaniswa nedola. Lokhu kuza ngesikhathi lapho unswinyo kanye nemikhawulo ekuthengisweni kukawoyela wase-Iranian sezivele zijezisa amazwe amaningana abathengi.
Imizila yokuhlinzeka namaketanga omhlaba ngaphansi kwengcindezi
La ukuba ntekenteke kwamaketango okuphakela amazwe ngamazwe Lokhu kuphinde kubonakale nangenkinga yaseMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ngaphezu kwengozi yokuvinjwa kweStrait of Hormuz, kunokwesaba ukungqubuzana okusabalele emizileni yasolwandle njengeGulf of Aden, iSuez Canal, kanye nezindawo ezingaphansi kokulawulwa kwamaqembu axhumene ne-Iran, okuzokhuphula izindleko zokusebenza kanye nokubambezeleka kokulethwa kwezimpahla emhlabeni wonke.
Abahlaziyi abaningi bakhumbula isipiliyoni salolu bhubhane, lapho ukuphazamiseka kwamaketanga okuhlinzeka okubalulekile kuholela ekushodeni kwemikhiqizo eyisisekelo. Manje, ukungaqiniseki ngomsuka nokufika kwezingxenye nezinto zokusetshenziswa kuphinda kuhlwanyela ukungabaza phakathi kwezimboni nabathengi emhlabeni wonke.
Amabhange amaphakathi, inzalo kanye nokubukeka komhlaba wonke
Ebhekene nalesi simo, amabhange amakhulu abhekene ne- ezimpambanweni zomgwaqo ezinzimaNgakolunye uhlangothi, ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali ingabaphoqa ukuba bayeke ukwehlisa—noma ngisho nokwenyusa—inzalo, okuthinta ukutshalwa kwezimali kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ukungaqiniseki kanye nokuntenga komnotho okungenzeka kukwenza kungabi ukuhlakanipha ukuqinisa umgomo wezimali kakhulu.
Ochwepheshe baveza ukuthi i-US Federal Reserve kanye ne-ECB bazothatha isinyathelo ngokuqapha, bahlole ukuthi ukushaqeka kwamandla kungokwesikhashana noma kuba usongo oluqhubekayo ekukhuleni komhlaba. Khonamanjalo, i-IMF kanye nezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe sezivele zibuyekeza izibikezelo zazo ze-GDP ziye phansi ngenxa yengozi yokuthi ukungqubuzana kuzohlala isikhathi eside kunalokho obekulindelwe.
Ubani ophuma kabi?
Igalelo elinzima kakhulu lizotholwa abangenisa uwoyela abakhulu, izinkampani zezindiza nezokuthuthaI-Europe, Japan, ne-Latin America yezomnotho izobona izikweletu zayo zamandla zikhuphuka kanye nokuncintisana kwazo kwehla. Abathengi namabhizinisi amancane bazophinde baqaphele ukukhuphuka kwamanani ezimpahla nezinsizakalo eziyisisekelo.
Esikhundleni salokho, abathumeli bamandla ngaphandle kanye nosonkontileka bokuvikela bangazuza ekuqaleni, inqobo nje uma isidingo samasevisi nemikhiqizo ehlobene nokuvikeleka kwamandla kanye nokunikezwa kusaqhubeka.
Ukuziphindiselela okungenzeka, ukuvinjwa, noma ukuhlaselwa kwengqalasizinda ebalulekile, njengoba kubonwe ngo-2019 ngezindawo ze-Aramco, kungabhebhethekisa isimo futhi kwengeze ukuntengantenga okwengeziwe ezimakethe.
Ukwesaba ukwanda kokungqubuzana kanye nomthelela emizileni yezohwebo, kanye nokukhuphuka kwezindleko zezinto ezingavuthiwe, kwethulwa njenge inselelo enkulu emnothweni womhlaba, lapho nje imiphumela yezinkinga zangaphambilini ingakaqedwa.