Izinkampani ezingaphezu kwengxenye ye-S&P 500 sezivele zibike imiphumela yazo yekota, futhi konke kuhambe kahle ngendlela emangalisayo. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi bebelokhu belwa nokwehla kwamandla emali okurekhodiwe kanye nokukhuphuka njalo kwenani lenzalo.Kodwa futhi kube nezizathu ezithile zokuthi abatshalizimali bazizwe benethemba, yingakho ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko kuphinde kwakhuphuka. Ngakho-ke ake sibheke izindaba ezinhle zale nkathi yemali engenayo, izixwayiso okufanele sizikhumbule, nokuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko kumi kuphi esikhathini esizayo...
Kungani abatshalizimali bezizwa benethemba elingaka?
Imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo ikhule emikhakheni eminingi
I-S&P 500 ibone imali engenayo emhlabeni wonke kanye nenzuzo ikhula ngo-16% no-9%, ngokulandelana, uma kuqhathaniswa nesikhathi esifanayo ngonyaka odlule, okubonisa ukuthi izinkampani zibhekane nesimo esinzima kahle. Futhi nakuba ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya we umkhakha wamandla (abazuze ekukhuphukeni kwamanani kagesi) kube ngumshayeli omkhulu walezi zibalo, akuyena yedwa: imali engenayo yazo zonke imikhakha ikhulile, futhi inzuzo yemikhakha ye-7 inyukile. Eqinisweni, ngisho noma singabandakanyi imiphumela emihle yomkhakha wamandla, imali engenayo yezinkampani zaseMelika iyaqhubeka nokukhula.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya kubone imali engenayo kanye nenzuzo ikhula. Umthombo: Morgan Stanley
Imiphumela ibingemibi njengoba bekulindelekile
Abatshalizimali bavame ukugxila kancane ezinombolweni ezingavuthiwe futhi okwengeziwe ngokuthi lezo zinombolo ziqhathaniswa kanjani nalokho okulindelwe yimakethe. Umphumela wekota yesibili kuze kube manje ucacile. Ukutshala izimali ezitokisini kwenze kangcono kunalokho okucatshangwa abahlaziyi. Eqinisweni, ungabona ngezansi ukuthi ama-52% ezinkampani ashaye kakhulu izilinganiso, kuyilapho kuphela i-12% eye yaba nezimanga ezingezinhle ezibalulekile.
Imiphumela yekota yesibili ye-S&P. Umthombo: Goldman Sachs
Izinkampani ziyaqhubeka nokutshala imali ekukhuleni
Izindleko ezinkulu zezinkampani (i-capex) ngokuvamile ziyindlela enhle yokulinganisa ukuthi izinkampani ezikhathazeke kangakanani ngekusasa. Futhi ngokusho Goldman Sachs, izinkampani zihlangene zandise izinhlelo zazo ze-capex kusukela kuqale isizini yeholo. Lokhu kuphakamisa ukuthi bayaqiniseka ukuthi noma yiziphi izithiyo ekukhuleni zingezesikhashana nje, nokuthi izimo zomnotho ezingcono zizobuya maduze.
Yiziphi izinkinga esingabhekana nazo?
Kunezimpawu zenkinga ngaphansi komhlaba️
Uma izibuyekezo zeholo zifike ngaphezu kwalokho obekulindelekile, ngokwengxenye kungenxa yokuthi abahlaziyi sebevele behlise lokho okulindelekile. Futhi nakuba izinkampani eziningi nazo zishaya kakhulu izilinganiso zazo, zikwenza lokho cishe njalo ngekota. Kuwumkhuba ojwayelekile ukungathembisi kanye nokuletha ngokweqile. Size sabona ukwehla: u-52% wezinkampani, ngokwesilinganiso, zehlule izilinganiso kule sizini yeholo, uma kuqhathaniswa no-62% kumakota amane adlule. Eqinisweni, uma sibheka emuva eshadini elingenhla, sizobona ukuthi imiphumela yale kota ngokuvamile mibi kunalena edlule. Futhi lezo zibalo azilungiselwanga ngisho nokwehla kwamandla emali...
Isimo somnotho singase sisuke kokubi siye kokubi kakhulu⌡️
Nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo kudale isimo somnotho esinzima engxenyeni yesibili, izinto kungenzeka zibe nzima nakakhulu engxenyeni yesithathu neyesine. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ukunyuka okukhulu kwamazinga enzalo yi-Federal Reserve kuzothatha isikhathi ukuba nomthelela emnothweni, ukukhawulela kanye nokupholisa umsebenzi wezomnotho. Futhi uma umnotho wenza izinkontileka, lokhu kuzolimaza izinkampani zaseMelika: inzuzo yezinkampani yehle ngokwesilinganiso se-13% ekwehleni komnotho kwangaphambilini.
Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Fed kuguqule indlela yokutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko. Umthombo: Morgan Stanley
Abatshalizimali bangase babe nethemba elikhulu
Abatshalizimali kungenzeka bakwehlisile ababekulindele, kodwa basalokhu benethemba. Babikezela ukuthi inzuzo izokhula ngo-6,7% engxenyeni yesithathu, u-6,7% kweyesine no-8,9% ngo-2022 uwonke. inani lokuthuthukela ezilinganisweni zomhlaziyi) seziqalile ukwehla. Lokho akulona uphawu oluhle ngoba i-amplitude enciphayo (umugqa oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka) ngokuvamile isitshela ukuthi izinyanga eziyi-12 ezilandelayo zokukhula komholo zizowa (umugqa ophuzi). Uma le phethini ibambe iqhaza kulo nyaka, kunethuba lokuthi izinkampani zizonquma ukuqeda zonke izindaba zazo ezimbi ngesikhathi esisodwa ukuze zilungiselele u-2023 ongcono. Lokho kungase kusheshise ukwehla.
Ukwehla kobubanzi bezibuyekezo zeholo ngokuvamile kwandulela ukwehla kwezilinganiso zokukhula ze-EPS. Umthombo: Morgan Stanley
Ngakho-ke ukutshala imali kwesitoko kuzoya kuphi?路♂️
Ukuwohloka kwesimo somnotho kuzokwenza kube nzima ukugcina lezi zimbuyiselo eminyakeni emibili ezayo. Futhi uma imali etholwayo iphansi kakhulu kunokulindelekile ezibuyekezweni ezizayo, lokhu kungadambisa imizwa yabatshalizimali futhi kwehlise inani lokutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko. Ngamanye amazwi, ubungozi bokwehla bukhulu kunamandla akhuphukayo, ikakhulukazi uma kubhekwa okulindelekile kubatshalizimali. Ngakho-ke uma uze lapha ufuna isignali yokuthenga idiphu, siyaxolisa ukukudumaza kodwa manje isikhathi asifanele. . Iqiniso liwukuthi sizobona izintengo nezinzuzo ezilindelwe ziwela ezingeni elibonisa ngempela ubungozi bokuwohloka komnotho okuthatha isikhathi eside, noma silindele ubufakazi bokuthi izinkampani zingakwazi ukubhekana nesimo esibi kakhulu. . Asikaboni okwamanje. Okwamanje, cishe uzofuna ukugcina iphothifoliyo ehlukahlukene futhi eqinile, eyakhelwe ukumelana cishe nanoma iyiphi indawo, njengalena. Uma lokho kusho ukulahlekelwa yinzuzo ngokulondoloza imali esitokweni sethu lapho izimakethe zikhuphuka, akuyona into enkulu. Kunezikhathi lapho kufanele ubeke engcupheni, kanye nezikhathi lapho kufanele uqaphe futhi unciphise ukulahlekelwa kwakho. Njengamanje, inketho engcono kakhulu kungaba ukuqapha.