Ukuhlasela okusha kukaDonald Trump kwezohwebo kubangele ukusabela okulandelanayo ezimakethe zamazwe ngamazwe, okubangele ukwehla kwezimakethe zamasheya kanye nokudala isimo sokungezwani phakathi kweminotho emikhulu yomhlaba. Lowo owayengumongameli waseMelika wethule iphakethe lentela elithinta amazwe amaningi, okuhlanganisa nabalingani bakhe asebenesikhathi eside, ngaphansi kwesicabha sokuvikela imboni yasekhaya kanye nokubhekana nokushoda kwezohwebo akubona kuyingozi e-United States. Lesi simo siveza indlela i Impi yohwebo phakathi kwe-United States neChina iyakhula.
Lezi zinyathelo, ezalungiswa ngokuthi "ukuzimela kwezomnotho" yiWashington, ziye zahlangatshezwa nokukhathazeka ngumphakathi wamazwe ngamazwe, owesaba imiphumela yempi yezohwebo enkulu futhi ethatha isikhathi eside. Ukusuka eYurophu kuye e-Asia, edlula eLatin America, ukusabela akubanga isikhathi eside ukuza.
Impendulo esheshayo yezimakethe zezimali
Ukumenyezelwa kwezintela ezintsha kubangele uMsombuluko Omnyama ezimakethe zamasheya. ESpain, inkomba yemakethe yamasheya eyinhloko, i-IBEX 35, ibone inani layo lehla ngo-6,4% ekuqaleni, lehla ngaphansi kwamaphuzu ayi-11.700, izinga elingakaze libonwe izinyanga. Lo mongo ubangele abahlaziyi abaningi ukuba bazibuze ngekusasa lenkomba.
Wonke amanani enkomba ayehweba ngokubomvu., ngokuncipha okukhulu ikakhulukazi ezinkampanini ezifana ne-Indra (-21,2%), i-Santander (-14,5%) ne-Mapfre (-14%). Amanye amafemu amakhulu njenge-BBVA, Repsol, Telefónica, kanye ne-Iberdrola nawo aqophe ukulahlekelwa okukhulu.
Lo mkhuba awuzange utholakale eSpain kuphela. Izimakethe zamasheya zaseParis, London, Frankfurt, kanye neMilan zilandele inkambiso efanayo, ngokuncipha okufika ku-7,6% kwezinye izimo. E-New York, i-Wall Street nayo iqale isonto kubomvu: i-Dow Jones, i-S&P 500, ne-Nasdaq yehle cishe ngo-4% phakathi nosuku.
Izimakethe zesaba ukuthi amanani entengo anyusiwe ngeke nje enze ukuhweba kubize kakhulu, kodwa futhi kuzodala ukwehla kwamandla emali., okuphoqa amabhange amakhulu ukuthi acabange kabusha izinqubomgomo zawo zezimali, ikakhulukazi ngesikhathi lapho ukusimama komnotho ezinkingeni eziningana ezilandelanayo kusengozini.
Imininingwane yephakheji entsha yentela
UTrump ubeke izintela ezingama-20% kuyo yonke imikhiqizo efika ivela e-European Union, ukusebenza ngo-Ephreli 9.. Lesi silinganiso siyingxenye yephakheji ebanzi ehlanganisa nezintela ezingu-25% zase-Japan ne-South Korea, 26% zase-India, ezingu-32% zase-Taiwan, kanye no-31% zase-Switzerland. Izwe laseChina lithole impatho enzima kunawo wonke, libhekene nezinga lika-34%, elingase linyukele ku-50% uma lingahoxisi ukuziphindiselela. Lokhu kuphawula inguquko kunqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-US futhi kungenzeka ulethe izinguquko ezibalulekile.
I-UK, kanye namazwe anjengeChile, iBrazil ne-Australia, ayithintekile kangako., nge-tariff ebekwe ku-10%, isibalo, ngokusho kwabaphathi base-US, "esibuyiselanayo" nalokho la mazwe asebenza e-United States.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, wonke amazwe manje angaphansi kwentela eyisisekelo eyisisekelo engu-10%., ngaphandle kokuhlukile okukhethekile okunjengezinto zokusetshenziswa zamasu, imikhiqizo yezemithi noma amandla. Lokhu kuphawula ushintsho lwesakhiwo kunqubomgomo yezohwebo yase-U.S., eye yagcina amanani aphansi ngokomlando, ikakhulukazi kumadlelandawonye ayo.
Imiphumela ye-Spain
ISpain nayo ihlukile kumthelela walo mthetho omusha wezohwebo. Eminye yemikhakha evezwe kakhulu ezimakethe zase-US—njengezimpahla ezinkulu, imishini yezimboni, uwoyela womnqumo, insimbi, nemikhiqizo kaphethiloli—ingalahlekelwa kakhulu. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi lokhu kungenzeka kuthinte ukuqashwa kuleyo mikhakha.
I-Spanish Chamber of Commerce ilinganisela ukuthi ukuthunyelwa kwe-United States kungase kwehle phakathi kuka-10% no-18%., okwenza isibikezelo sayo esimaphakathi sehle ngo-14,3%. Lokhu kungasho ukulahlekelwa cishe kwezigidigidi ezingu-2.600 zama-euro, okumelela u-0,21% we-GDP kazwelonke.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, imikhakha efana newayini, i-biodiesel kanye ne-ceramics, nakuba inenani eliphansi ngezibalo eziphelele, incike kakhulu emakethe yase-US.. Lezi zimboni zizothinteka kakhulu ngokukhokhiswa kwezintela ezingama-20%, kubeka izinkulungwane zemisebenzi engcupheni futhi kube nomthelela emiphakathini ezimele enenqwaba yezinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle.
Ukusabela kwamazwe ngamazwe kanye nokungezwani kwezohwebo
I-European Union ayizange ime nje ingenzi lutho. I-European Commission ihlongoze amanani angama-25% emikhiqizweni yaseMelika eyisakhiwo sodumo njengezithuthuthu ze-Harley-Davidson, ama-jean, nejusi yewolintshi, ukuze aphindiselele intela yensimbi ne-aluminium eyayibekwe uTrump ngaphambilini. Lokhu kusabela kugqamisa ukuthi ukungezwani kwezohwebo kungavusa kanjani impendulo edidiyelwe yamazwe ngamazwe.
I-France ne-Ireland babambe iqhaza elibonakalayo ezingxoxweni zangaphakathi., iqinisekisa ukuthi eminye imikhiqizo ebucayi njenge-bourbon whiskey ayifakiwe ohlwini lwemikhiqizo engaphansi kwezintela ezintsha. IBrussels iphinde icabange ukusebenzisa izindlela ezinamandla kusetshenziswa i-Anti-Coercion Instrument esanda kugunyazwa, nakuba ukuqaliswa kwayo kuzothatha amasonto uma kubhekwa inqubo yayo yezomthetho eyinkimbinkimbi.
I-Asia nayo isabele ngokuqinile. I-China ibeke eyakho intela engu-34% ezimpahleni zaseMelika futhi isixwayise ngokuthi izothatha ezinye izinyathelo uma uTrump engazihoxisi izintela ezintsha. I-Japan, iNingizimu Korea, namanye amazwe aseNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia abonise ukuzimisela okuhlanganyelwe ukuziphindiselela ngokuhlanganyela, ukuqinisa ukubambisana kwabo lapho bebhekene nalokho abakubheka njengodlame lwezohwebo oluhlangene.
Ingqondo yezomnotho kanye nemiphumela yesikhathi esimaphakathi
Ngokombono wezomnotho, isu likaTrump lisekelwe embonweni we-mercanantilist lapho ukusilela kwezohwebo kuthathwa njengophawu lobuthakathaka. Ngaphansi kwale ndlela, amanani entengo azosebenza njengethuluzi lokulinganisa uhwebo, ukwandisa umkhiqizo wasekhaya kanye nokunciphisa ukuncika emazweni angaphandle.
Nokho, osomnotho abaningi bayawugxeka lo mbono., egcizelela ukuthi ukushoda kwamazwe amabili akubonisi ukungabi nabulungisa kwezohwebo kodwa kwezinhlaka zezomnotho eziyinkimbinkimbi, ezifana nokonga nokutshalwa kwezimali. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukusetshenziswa okungekho emthethweni kwezintela—okubalwa ngokuvumelana namafomula anganembile—kuphakamisa ukungabaza mayelana nokusebenza kwazo kwangempela.
Abaphathi bakaTrump balindele ukuqoqa phakathi kwezigidigidi ezingama-700.000 namaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingama-800.000 kulezi zintela., nakuba ochwepheshe abaningi bevuma ukuthi ukunyuka kungenzeka kube kuncane kakhulu ngenxa yokwehla kwenani elivela kwamanye amazwe. Ngaphezu kwalokho, njengoba izimpahla ezivela kwamanye amazwe ziba eqolo, ukwehla kwamandla emali kulindeleke ukuthi kukhuphuke, okungase kuphoqe i-Federal Reserve ukuthi iqinise inqubomgomo yayo yezimali.
Lo mphumela uzophinde wenze kube nzima isimo somnotho womhlaba. Ukuba nokwenzeka kwempi yezohwebo ende kungaphazamisa wonke amaketanga okuhlinzeka, kudale ukungaqiniseki kokutshalwa kwezimali, futhi kunciphise ukuhwebelana kwamazwe ngamazwe iminyaka eminingana.
Isinqumo sikaTrump sokubeka amanani entengo asabalele sibe nomthelela osheshayo futhi ojulile ezimakethe, uhwebo lomhlaba wonke, kanye nobudlelwano bezokuxhumana. Amazwe afana neSpain asevele alindele ukulahlekelwa okukhulu ekuthunyelweni kwayo kwamanye amazwe, kuyilapho imibuso emikhulu yezomnotho, njengeChina ne-European Union, ilungiselela ukuphendula. Njengoba ukuziphindiselela kudlondlobala futhi izimakethe ziqhubeka nokubonisa lokhu kushuba, kubonakala kusobala ukuthi imodeli yohwebo lwamazwe ngamazwe ingena esigabeni soguquko olujulile, eqhutshwa kancane yinqubo yezobuchwepheshe kanye nangokwengeziwe isu lezombusazwe lokuphatha elifuna ukuchaza kabusha indima yalo emhlabeni wezomnotho.
