I-Los Ukushaqeka kwamandla sekubuyele enkabeni yesigaba somnotho womhlaba kanye nesezweIntengo kawoyela ekhuphukayo, ukungezwani eMpumalanga EphakathiUkungazinzi eStrait of Hormuz kanye nokuthembela kumafutha emvelo kukhumbuza abahlaziyi abaningi ngeminyaka yawo-1970, kodwa isimo samanje sihluke kakhulu: kunentando yeningi eningi emhlabeni wonke, ubuchwepheshe obuhlukile obengeziwe kanye nokuqwashisa okukhulu ngokushintsha kwamandla, yize kusekhona ubuthakathaka.
Izipesheli zomlando wakamuva inqwaba yezibonelo eziwusizo kakhulu zokuqonda ukuthi yini engenzeka uma intengo yamandla ikhuphuka kakhuluKusukela ezinkingeni zikawoyela zango-1973 nango-1979, kuze kube yiMpi YaseGulf, ukuhlaselwa kwe-Ukraine ngo-2022, noma ingxabano yamanje ezungeze i-Iran, isiqephu ngasinye sinikeza izifundo ngokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, ukukhula, izimakethe zezimali, ukungalingani phakathi kwamazwe angenisa kanye namazwe athumela kwamanye amazwe, kanye nempikiswano engapheli yokuthi ungasheshisa kanjani uhlelo lwamandla oluhlanzekile nolusebenza kahle.
Kuyini ukushaqeka kwamandla futhi kungani kushukumisa umnotho kangaka?
Uma sikhuluma ngokushaqeka kwamandla sibhekisela kukho ukwenyuka okungazelelwe, okubukhali, futhi okungavamile okungalindelekile kwentengo yomthombo wamandla obalulekileikakhulukazi uwoyelaigesi yemvelo noma amalahle. Lokhu akusikho ukwanda okuncane, kwesikhashana, kodwa ukwenyuka kwentengo okuphazamisa izindleko zokukhiqiza, amanani abathengi, kanye nezinqumo zokutshalwa kwezimali nokusetshenziswa emhlabeni jikelele.
Lezi ziqephu zinamandla kakhulu ngoba Amandla afakwe ngokungabonakali cishe kukho konke esikusebenzisayo.Ezokuthutha, umanyolo, ipulasitiki, i-aluminium, insimbi, ezokuthutha, ezokushisa, amakhemikhali, ukudla okucutshunguliwe, izinsizakalo zedijithali, kanye nokunye okuningi. Ngisho noma umndeni ubona amanani enyuka kuphela. I-invoyisi yokukhanya noma intengo kaphethiloli, empeleni ukwanda kwezindleko zamandla kudlula kulo lonke uchungechunge lwenani.
Umphumela osheshayo uvame ukuba yi-cocktail engakhululekile: ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo ephezulu kanye nokukhula komnotho okuphansiIzindleko ziyakhuphuka, ukusetshenziswa kwezimali kuyancipha, ukutshalwa kwezimali kuyancipha, futhi amabhange amaphakathi Babhekene nenkinga yokwenyusa amazinga enzalo ukuze balwe nokwehla kwamandla emali noma ukubamba ukuze bangaqhubeki nokucindezela imisebenzi yezomnotho.
Ukushaqeka okukhulu kwamandla kwakamuva: kusukela ngawo-70 kuya ekuhlaselweni kwe-Ukraine
Okuhlangenwe nakho okuqoqwe eminyakeni embalwa edlule kubonisa ukuthi Akuzona zonke izigameko zamandla ezinomthelela ofanayo noma ofanayo emakethe.Nokho, kunezindlela ezifanayo nezisivumela ukuthi sifunde okuthile kulokho okwenzekile ukuze sichaze kangcono isikhathi samanje.
1973: inkinga yokuqala enkulu kawoyela
Inkinga yango-1973 yaphawula ngaphambi nangemva ohlelweni lwamandla lomhlaba wonkeUkwenqatshwa kukawoyela okwabekwa amazwe amaningana ase-Arab kwabangela ukwenyuka okungazelelwe nokubukhali kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe. Lokhu kunyuka kwentengo kwaholela enhlanganisela elimazayo kakhulu: ukwehla kwamandla emali okungenakuqhathaniswa, ukwenyuka okukhulu kwenzalo, kanye nokwehla okukhulu komnotho emazweni amaningi athuthukile.
Ezimakethe zezimali, Izimakethe zamasheya zehle cishe ngo-50%. Kwamanye amazwe, lokhu kwakubonisa ukwesaba ukungasebenzi kahle isikhathi eside. Kodwa-ke, lokho kwehla kwamandla omnotho akunakubangelwa uwoyela kuphela. Kunalokho, ukushaqeka kwamandla kwaba yimbangela yokugcina yochungechunge lokungalingani okuqongelelekile, okwenza ubukhulu baleso sigameko kube nzima ukubuqhathanisa nesimo samanje.
1979: Inguquko yase-Iran kanye neSiphepho Sesibili
Uguquko lwase-Iran lwango-1979 lwabuyela ku- ukukhulisa intengo kawoyela, kodwa kube nomthelela olinganiselayo ezimakethe zamasheyaImakethe yaqala yasabela ngokulungiswa, kodwa kamuva yathola ukuzinza okuthile ngaphambi kokuba inqubomgomo yezimali ekhawulelwe e-United States nakwamanye amazwe, kwagcina sekubangela ukwehla komnotho okusha.
Isifundo kulesi siqephu ukuthi, yize intengo yamandla ingaba yinhlansiNgokuvamile, yizimpendulo zenqubomgomo yezomnotho, ikakhulukazi izinqumo zesilinganiso senzalo, ezichaza ukujula nobude bokwehla komnotho.
1990: Impi YaseGulf kanye nomthelela oqinile
Ukuhlasela kwe-Iraq iKuwait ngo-1990 kanye neMpi yaseGulf eyalandela kwaholela ukushaqeka kwamandla okusha, kulokhu esimweni senzalo ephezulu kakadeIntengo kawoyela ikhuphuke ngokushesha, okwabangela ukwesaba kokwehla okukhulu kwentengo kawoyela.
Noma kunjalo, Umthelela wemakethe yamasheya wawungenzima kangako kunangeminyaka yo-1970Izomnotho kanye nezimakethe zezimali bezilungiselelwe kangcono, zinolwazi olwengeziwe ekubhekaneni nalezi zinhlobo zemicimbi kanye nomkhakha wamandla ohlukahlukene kancane. Lesi sigameko siqinisekisile ukuthi umongo wezomnotho omkhulu wangaphambilini (amazinga enzalo, ukukhuphuka kwamanani okuqala, kanye namandla ohlelo lwezezimali) kubalulekile ekuhloleni umonakalo obangelwe ukushaqeka kokunikezwa kwamandla njengenkinga yamandla.
2022: ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine kanye nenkinga yegesi yaseYurophu
Ukuhlasela kweRussia i-Ukraine ngo-2022 kwakusho ukuthi ushintsho olukhulu emakethe yamandla yaseYurophu kanye neyomhlaba wonkeUkunqunywa kanye nosongo ku izimpahla zikaphethiloliLokhu, kanye nezijeziso kanye nokulungiswa kabusha kwemizila yokungenisa impahla, kwanyusa intengo kaphethiloli namalahle futhi kwanyusa intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe.
Izimakethe zamasheya zomhlaba wonke zahlupheka ukwehla okukhulu, okuhambisana nokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kokwehla kwamandla emali Lokhu kwaphoqa amabhange amakhulu ukuba aphendule ngokunyuka okukhulu kwenzalo eminyakeni eminingi. Ngokungafani neminyaka yawo-1970, umnotho wawunezikhungo zezimali ezithembekile, kodwa ukuhlanganiswa kokukhuphuka kwamanani okunikezwayo kanye namanani akhuphukayo kwasaholela ekuqineni okukhulu kwezimo zezimali.
Ingxabano ne-Iran kanye nephethini entsha yokushaqeka kwamandla
Njengamanje, ukugxila sekushintshele ku- Ukungezwani okwandayo eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nengozi yempi ebanzi ne-IranUkuncipha komkhawulo wokuphepha eStrait of Hormuz, lapho kudlula khona cishe ingxenye eyodwa kwezinhlanu kawoyela emhlabeni, kubangele ama-alamu.
Emasontweni ambalwa, I-Brent crude isishintshele ku-$110-$115 ngebhareli ngalinye Futhi i-WTI idlule kahle umkhawulo wengqondo ongu-$100. Ezinye izinhlangano, njenge-JPMorgan, zixwayise ngokuthi esimweni sokuvinjelwa isikhathi eside, uwoyela ongahluziwe ungasondela ku-$150, okungamelela ukushaqeka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Imakethe isiqalile kakade ukukhuphuka intengo esimweni esingakhululekile: Ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu kanye nokukhula okuphansi, isimo esivamile kulolu hlobo lwenkingaAmazwe angenisa amandla angaphandle abhekene "nentela yangaphandle" enciphisa imali engenayo, kuyilapho abathumeli bempahla kwamanye amazwe bethuthukisa imigomo yabo yokuhweba futhi bebona isikhundla sabo sezombusazwe siqiniswa.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, intengo ekhuphukayo kawoyela ongahluziwe Isakazeka ngokushesha kwezinye izinto ezisetshenziswayo zamasuIgesi, umanyolo, ipulasitiki, ezokuthutha zasemanzini nezomhlaba, ukudla, ngisho nezinsimbi ezifana ne-aluminium, esezifinyelele amazinga aphezulu eminyaka eminingi, konke kuyathinteka. Ukulungiswa kabusha kwemizila yokuhweba okuphoqelelwe kwandisa izindleko zezokuthutha futhi kwandisa umthelela wokwehla kwamandla emali.
Indlela izimakethe zezimali ezisabela ngayo ekushaqekeni kwamandla
Uma sibheka ukulandelana kweziqephu zomlando, singabona ukuthi Izimakethe zivame ukusabela ngokuguquguquka okukhulu esikhathini esifushane, ikakhulukazi kufayela le- imali engenayo kanye nasezimpahleni zezikweletu zamazwe nemikhakha esengozini kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, umphumela wesikhathi esimaphakathi uhlukile kakhulu.
Izikhathi eziningi, Izimakethe zamasheya zikwazile ukuzinza uma ukungaqiniseki kwezepolitiki sekunciphile. Noma imakethe ihlanganisa kangcono ukukhula okusha kanye nokulindela ukwehla kwamandla emali. Ukuthi ukulungiswa kokuqala kuba umjikelezo wokwehla isikhathi eside noma cha kuncike ezintweni ezintathu eziyinhloko: ubude bokushaqeka, impendulo yamabhange amakhulu, kanye namandla angaphambilini omnotho kanye nama-balance sheet ezinkampani.
Isiqephu samanje sibonisa ukufana okuthile neMpi YaseGulf kanye nenkinga eyabangelwa ukuhlasela kwe-Ukraine. ukwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani kawoyela kanye nokulungiswa okubukhali ezimakethe zamasheya, endaweni lapho abatshalizimali bezibeka kabusha ezimpahleni ezibhekwa njengeziphephelo kanye nemikhakha engachayeke kakhulu kulo mjikelezo.
Kodwa-ke, kunezimo ezihlukile ezibalulekile, okwamanje, ezinciphisa ingozi yokwehla komnotho okujulile njengaleyo yangeminyaka yawo-1970. Isikhathi salokhu kushaqeka okusha sisalinganiselwe. Uma kuqhathaniswa nezinkinga zangaphambilini, uhlelo lwezezimali lomhlaba luvame ukuqala esimweni esiqinile sokusetshenziswa kwemali kanye nokulawula.
Yini eyenza isimo samanje sezomnotho sihluke?
Esinye sezici ezinkulu zesimo samanje ukuthi Ukushaqeka kwamandla kuqubuka ngesikhathi sokulindela okuhle ngomjikelezo wezomnothoNgaphambi kokwanda kwezomnotho eMpumalanga Ephakathi, ukuvumelana kwakhomba ekukhuleni okumaphakathi kodwa okuhle, kanye nokukhula kwenzuzo yezinkampani kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali okunamandla ezindaweni ezifana nobuhlakani bokwenziwa, ukuzivikela, ingqalasizinda kanye noshintsho oluluhlaza.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali, okwenyuke kakhulu ngo-2022 ngenxa yokuhlanganiswa kwamandla, ukudla, kanye nezithiyo zokuthutha, Yayisivele ivikelwe eYurophu futhi iphakathi e-United StatesNgale kokwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela, bekungekho zingcindezi ezisabalele emakethe yezimpahla ezifana nezango-2022.
Futhi, Izinga lenzalo manje liqala endaweni ehluke kakhuluNgo-2022, iminotho emikhulu ethuthukile yayibhekene namazinga enzalo acishe abe yi-zero, okwaphoqa amabhange amakhulu njenge-Federal Reserve kanye ne-ECB ukuthi aqalise ukwenyuka kwamanani ngamandla ukuze kuncishiswe amanani akhuphukayo. Namuhla, amazinga enzalo abhekwa njengangathathi hlangothi endaweni ye-euro futhi anemingcele ethile e-United States.
Kulesi sigaba, Ukwanda kwesikhashana kokwehla kwamandla emali okuhlobene namafutha bekungeke neze kuvumele esinye isenzakalo sokwenyuka kwenzalo okunamandla kangaka. njengaleyo yango-2022, ngaphandle kokuthi ukushaqeka kuba yinto engapheli noma kusakazekele kwezinye izimakethe zezimpahla. Lokho kunciphisa kancane ingozi yokuqina okungalawuleki kwezimo zezimali.
Ukulinganiswa kwemakethe yamasheya nakho kushintshile. Ekuqaleni kwenkinga entsha yamandla, amanani abonakala edinga kakhulu.Njengango-2022, kodwa ngezici ezicacile ezifanele: umkhakha wezobuchwepheshe namuhla unezibalo eziphansi kakhulu kunangesikhathi esifanayo, futhi ngesikhathi esifanayo, ukulindela ukukhula kwenzuzo okunamandla kakhulu, okuqhutshwa ukwanda kwe-AI nezinye izindlela zokwakha.
Izimakethe zamandla: zingcolile, azisebenzi kahle futhi zishintsha ngokuphelele
Ngale kwesimo samanje, ukushaqeka kwakamuva kugcizelele ukuthi Izimakethe zamandla zamanje zingcolisa, azisebenzi kahle, zishintshashintsha kakhulu, futhi zisengozini enkulu. kuya ekungezwani kwezepolitiki. Isidingo soguquko olujulile lwamandla asikaze sibe sobala kunamanje.
Ikusasa lohlelo lwamandla likhomba ekubusweni yi ukufakwa kukagesi kokusetshenziswa kokugcina (ezokuthutha, ukushisa, izinqubo zezimboni), kuhlanganiswe nokusetshenziswa okukhulu kwemishini evuselelekayo, amagridi ahlakaniphile, indawo yokugcina kanye nobuchwepheshe obufana ne-hydrogen ephansi yekhabhoni noma amandla enuzi esizukulwane esilandelayo.
Lokho kuguqulwa kuzodinga ukutshalwa kwezimali okukhulu nokuqhubekayo ngokuhamba kwesikhathiKokubili imikhakha kahulumeni neyangasese ibilokhu ibhekene nokumelana nabatshalizimali iminyaka eminingi, ngokwengxenye ngenxa yengozi yokulawula ebonwayo, ukungaqiniseki kwezobuchwepheshe, kanye nokungabi namandla kohlelo lwe-fossil fuel olugxile kakhulu. Kodwa-ke, iqiniso lokuguquguquka okukhulu, ukuphazamiseka kokuhlinzekwa, kanye nengcindezi yokuncintisana yamazwe ngamazwe kuye kunciphisa kancane kancane lokhu kubhukha.
Umphumela uba yisimo lapho Amandla amabili abonakala ephikisana ahlala ndawonyeNgakolunye uhlangothi, isimo esiphuthumayo sokuphepha kwesimo sezulu kanye namandla siqhubekela phambili ekuvuseleleni amandla; ngakolunye uhlangothi, imboni kaphethiloli, kunokuba ihoxise buthule, isheshise ukukhiqizwa kwayo ngenxa yengozi yokufuduka emashumini eminyaka ezayo.
Indima kawoyela kanye noguquko lwe-shale
Naphezu kokuthuthuka kwamandla ahlukile, Uwoyela usalokhu uyinkosi yengxube yamandla yomhlaba wonkeUkucindezelwa kokufakwa kukagesi kwezokuthutha, ukuqaliswa kwezimoto zikagesi, ukwanda kwe-hydrogen, kanye nokubuya kwempikiswano yenuzi kwakha umuzwa, phakathi neminyaka eyishumi nesigamu edlule, wokuthi ukwehla kukawoyela ongahluziwe kwakuseduze.
Nokho, Eziningi zalezo zibikezelo zazinethemba elikhulu ngokweqile.Bayithatha kancane ingcindezi yengqalasizinda ekhona, ubukhulu besidingo somhlaba wonke, kanye nokuzivumelanisa nezimo kwemboni yendabuko. Uguquko lwe-shale e-United States, oluphindaphindwe nakwamanye amazwe anezinsiza ezingavamile njenge-Argentina (Vaca Muerta), lwashintsha imithetho yomdlalo ngokukhulisa kakhulu ukunikezwa nokulawula izindleko zokukhiqiza.
Ngesikhathi esifanayo, Isiqubulo sezombusazwe esithi “drill, baby, drill” sibonise ushintsho oluya ekwandeni okunamandla kokukhiqizwa kukaphethiloli wezinto zakudalaikakhulukazi ngesikhathi sikahulumeni kaTrump. Bebhekene nokwesaba ukulahlekelwa ukubaluleka eminyakeni engama-20 noma engama-30, ingxenye enkulu yomkhakha kawoyela yanquma ukusheshisa, hhayi ukwehlisa ijubane, isebenzisa ithuba lamanje lenzuzo ephezulu.
Imiphumela izwakala ngokucacile lapho kuqala ingxabano entsha nebalulekile. Ukwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe okuhlobene nokungezwani ne-Iran kusakazeka kulo lonke uchungechunge lokukhiqiza.Igesi, umanyolo, ipulasitiki, ezokuthutha zasemanzini nezomhlaba, futhi ekugcineni, ukudla kanye nezimpahla ezisetshenziswa kakhulu. Isinyathelo ngasinye senezela umthamo owengeziwe wokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nengcindezi emandleni okuthenga emindeni namabhizinisi.
Umthelela ongalingani: amazwe angenisa kwamanye amazwe uma kuqhathaniswa namazwe athumela kwamanye amazwe
Esinye sezinto ezihlala zikhona kuzo zonke izigameko zamandla ukuthi Azithinti wonke umuntu ngokulinganayo.Amazwe angenisa amandla aphelele abona ukuthi ukwenyuka kwentengo kusebenza kanjani "njengentela" ekhokhwa kwamanye amazwe, okwenza kube kubi kakhulu ibhalansi ye-akhawunti yawo yamanje futhi kunciphise imingcele yezezimali neyezenhlalo.
I-International Monetary Fund igcizelela ukuthi, Ezomnotho ezincike ku-oyili negesi yangaphandle, lezi zigameko zibhebhethekisa ubuthakathaka.Lokhu kuyiqiniso ikakhulukazi uma sebevele beqala emazingeni aphezulu ezikweletu noma ukungalingani kwezezimali. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, abathumeli bamazwe angaphandle bayazuza emananini aphezulu, bathuthukise imali engenayo yentela, futhi baqinise ithonya labo lezepolitiki ezindaweni ezihlangene zomhlaba wonke.
Ngawo-1970, impendulo ekukhuphukeni kwamanani kawoyela ngokunyuka okukhulu kwesilinganiso senzalo emazweni ayinhloko Kwabangela inkinga enkulu yezikweletu ezimakethe ezisafufusa ngawo-1980. Lokho okuhlangenwe nakho kusalokhu kuyisikhumbuzo esibuhlungu sezingozi zokuhlanganisa ukushaqeka kokunikezwa kwempahla nezinqubomgomo zezimali ezivimbela kakhulu ezimweni ezibuthakathaka.
Namuhla, amabhange okutshala imali axwayisa ngokuthi I-Brent crude eqhubekayo ephezulu izophinde ibeke ingcindezi ekukhuleni komhlaba kanye nasekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali.Nakuba ngokwesilinganiso, umnotho uhlukahlukene kakhulu kunaseminyakeni engamashumi amahlanu edlule, ukuncika kumafutha emvelo kusalokhu kuvelele kwezokuthutha, kwezolimo, kanye nasezimbonini ezinkulu.
Icala lase-Argentina: phakathi kwenkumbulo yama-70 kanye nethuba elisha
Impikiswano mayelana nokushaqeka kwamandla iyanda e-Argentina isici esikhethekile kakhuluEminyakeni engamashumi amahlanu ngemva kokuwa kwezikhungo ngo-1976, umhlaba uphinde wajikeleza ngamandla, kodwa izwe manje selisebusweni bentando yeningi futhi lingenalo udlame lwezepolitiki, yize lihlushwa ukungezwani kwezomnotho okusikhumbuza, ngokwengxenye, indlela okwakunengqondo ngayo ngawo-1976.
Ngakho, Kwakuyizinkinga zikawoyela zango-1973 nango-1979 ezanyakazisa ukuhleleka komhlaba wonkeNamuhla, ingxabano eMpumalanga Ephakathi kanye nezingozi eGulf kubuyisele uwoyela ongahluziwe esizindeni sezepolitiki kanye nezingxoxo zezomnotho. Ukufana kusobala, kodwa indawo yokuqala yase-Argentina ihluke kakhulu.
Esikhathini esifushane, Ukushaqeka kwamandla kwamanje kusobala ukuthi kubi emnothweni wasekhayaAmanani kaphethiloli akhuphuke kakhulu; uphethiloli ufinyelele amazinga aphezulu kakhulu ngokweqiniso, okufaka ingcindezi ekukhuphukeni kwamandla emali futhi kunciphisa amandla okuthenga emindenini. Ukwenyuka kwakamuva kwephampu kungeze amaphuzu amaningana entengo ngesikhathi lapho ukwehla kwamandla emali kungakabi khona.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, bayaphikelela imikhawulo ephawulekayo yesakhiwoI-Argentina ithumela kwamanye amazwe uwoyela ongahluziwe kodwa ithumela kwamanye amazwe uphethiloli ocwengekile, okubonisa ukungakwazi ukucwenga okwanele kanye neminyaka yokutshalwa kwezimali okubambezelekile ezindaweni zokucwenga. Ukuhlanganiswa kokungaqiniseki komthetho kanye nokulindela kwemithethonqubo eqinile yezemvelo sekuyisikhathi eside kudikibalisa la maphrojekthi, kokubili endaweni kanye nasemhlabeni jikelele.
Isimo siyashintsha uma ubheka umkhathizwe wesikhathi esiphakathi nesikhathi eside. Ngokungafani neminyaka yo-1970, I-Argentina okwamanje ibhekene nokukhula kwe-hydrocarbon okugxile eVaca Muerta.Ukwanda komkhiqizo, kanye namaphrojekthi amasha asekelwa yizinhlaka ezifana ne-RIGI, kubeka izwe njengendawo engaba khona yokuthumela amandla kwamanye amazwe ezweni elizoqhubeka lifuna uphethiloli eminyakeni ezayo, naphezu kwenkulumo eluhlaza.
Izinkomba ezinhle ziyabonakala futhi emkhakheni wezomthetho kanye nowezezimali. Isinqumo esihle e-United States ecaleni elihlobene ne-YPFLesi sinqumo, esaguqula isinqumo esasibiza kakhulu kuHulumeni wase-Argentina ngokubheka ukuthi izimangalo azihambisani nalelo gunya, sanciphisa omunye wemithombo ebaluleke kakhulu yokungaqiniseki mayelana nenkampani kanye nezwe ngokwalo.
Nokho, isifundo esiyisisekelo sidlulela ngale kwalesi simo esithile. I-Argentina iyaqhubeka nokukhokha iprimiyamu enobungozi obukhulu kakhulu ngenxa yomlando wayo wokungqubuzana nomqondo wezimakethe zezimali. Intuthuko esimeme ayifinyelelwa ngokufulathela izwe lezezimali, kodwa ngokwakha ukwethembana ngokubikezela, ukuhlonipha izinkontileka, kanye nemithetho ecacile.
Ukulingana kwezomnotho okukhona njengamanje kubuthakathaka futhi Kuncike kakhulu phambili kwangaphandle.Umthamo wokuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe kwezolimo nezimboni, ukuzinza kwesilinganiso sokushintshisana, kanye nokuguquka komongo wamazwe ngamazwe konke kudlala indima. Ukuwohloka okukhulu kunoma yiziphi zalezi zici kunganciphisa ngokushesha isikhala sokuhamba, futhi ukushaqeka kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele kusebenza njengesikhumbuzo salokhu kubuthakathaka kwesakhiwo.
Lokhu "kubuyela" kohlobo oluthile “Iminyaka engamashumi ayisikhombisa enamandla” ayisho ukuphindaphinda kwesikhathi esidlule ngendlela yokwenziwaKodwa kugcizelela ukuthi amandla ayaphinda abumba futhi aphazamise umnotho womhlaba kanye nezombusazwe. Umehluko omkhulu ukuthi i-Argentina ayisalahlwa njengesidlali esingenzi lutho: inezinsiza, amakhono, kanye nefasitela lamathuba elimlando, uma nje ingabuyisa ukuzethemba futhi ithuthukise isu elihlakaniphile lokuhlanganiswa komhlaba wonke.
Ngakho-ke, inselele enkulu akukhona nje ukuba nowoyela noma igesi, kodwa ukwakha izikhungo eziqinile, ukuzinza kwemithetho kanye nombono wesikhathi eside lokho kusenza sikwazi ukusizakala ngalezi zinsiza ngaphandle kokuphinda amaphutha esikhathi esidlule. Ingxenye ebalulekile yekusasa lomnotho wezwe incike ngqo kule migwaqo.
Uma sibheka isethi yeziqephu zomlando kanye nesimo samanje, Umlando wokushaqeka kwamandla ukhombisa iphethini yokungezwani okuphindaphindiwe kodwa futhi nokuzivumelanisa nezimoAmanani akhuphuka kakhulu, ukunyuka kwamanani entengo kuyakhuphuka, ukukhula kuyawa, futhi izimakethe ziyathuthumela, kodwa ngokuhamba kwesikhathi umnotho ulungisa ukusetshenziswa kwawo, ubuchwepheshe obusha buyathuthukiswa, futhi izintambo zokuhlinzeka ziyahlelwa kabusha. Umehluko phakathi kokuvela okunamandla noma okubuthakathaka kusuka kugagasi ngalinye usekhwalithini yezikhungo, ikhono lokubona kusengaphambili, kanye nokuzimisela ukutshala imali ohlelweni lwamandla oluqinile, olungavezwa kakhulu ekushintsheni kwezepolitiki.
