Isimo samandla omhlaba wonke sibhekene noshintsho olungashintsha imithetho yomdlalo unomphela. Sekungamashumi eminyaka, sithatha kalula ukuthi iqembu elincane lamazwe liphethe uma kukhulunywa ngentengo kaphethiloli, kodwa ukuzinza kwaleli qembu likaphethiloli kubonakala sengathi kuyawa ngenxa yokuxubana okukhulu kokukhashelwa kwangaphakathi kanye nentuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe.
Lokhu akuyona nje inkinga edlulayo, kodwa ushintsho olufana nolwethu lapho ukuthembela ku-oyela ongahluziwe wendabuko kubhekene neqiniso lapho ukutholakala kungasekho sidingo njengoba besikholelwa. Isimo siyinkimbinkimbi, ngezimpi eGulf kanye nombango wamandla phakathi kwezizwe ezikhiqiza uwoyela oshiya inhlangano isesimweni esibucayi kakhulu.
Ingozi enkulu: ukuhamba kwe-United Arab Emirates
Lezi zindaba zishaqise kakhulu: i-United Arab Emirates inqume ukushiya i-OPEC ngemuva kweminyaka ecishe ibe ngamashumi ayisithupha yobulungu. Lesi sinqumo, esenziwe ukuvikela izintshisekelo zayo zezwe , siwumphumela omkhulu eSaudi Arabia, esebenza njengomholi weqembu. Ukuhamba kuza ngesikhathi sokungezwani okukhulu eMpumalanga Ephakathi, ikakhulukazi ngezingxabano ezihlobene ne-Iran kanye nokuvinjelwa kweStrait of Hormuz.
Uhulumeni wama-emirate ayisikhombisa akakakhethi isikhathi esinokuthula kakhulu sokuhoxa. Benza lokho njengoba nje ukutholakala kukawoyela ongahluziwe kwehle ngenxa yokuhlaselwa kwengqalasizinda kanye nokuvalwa kwemizila ebalulekile yokuthumela impahla. Lokhu kungazinzile kubangele ukuthi amanani kawoyela, igesi kanye nophalafini akhuphuke kakhulu emavikini ambalwa, okubonisa ukuthi i-OPEC ayisakwazi ukuqinisekisa ukuthula ezimakethe.
Inkinga yayiwukuthi izabelo ezibekwe yileli qembu zazibavimbela emizamweni yabo. Babefuna ukukhiqiza nokuthengisa okwengeziwe, kodwa imikhawulo yokukhiqiza yabavimbela ekutholeni izinzuzo zokutshalwa kwezimali kwabo. Ngokushiya iqembu lezombusazwe, i-Abu Dhabi ithola ukuguquguquka okugcwele ukuchaza isu layo lamandla futhi izivumelanise eduze kakhulu nezintshisekelo zase-US, okubonwa abahlaziyi abaningi njengendlela yobuciko yokuthola ukuzimela.
Umlando wokuqhekeka kanye nobuthakathaka
Nakuba ukuhoxa kwe-UAE kushaqisa, akusikho okokuqala umuntu enquma ukuqhubekela phambili. Kuwo wonke umlando wayo, amanye amazwe akhiqiza uwoyela abe nomuzwa wokuthi leli qembu alisenanzuzo kuwo. I-Angola, isibonelo, yahamba ngo-2023 ngenxa yokungavumelani ngezabelo , kuyilapho iQatar yashiya inhlangano esikhathini esithile esidlule ukuze igxile emandleni ayo angempela: igesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe.
Amanye amacala aphawulekayo yilawo ase-Ecuador nase-Indonesia. Leli zwe laseNingizimu Melika lajoyina futhi lashiya i-OPEC izikhathi eziningana, lilwela ukugcina amandla alo okukhiqiza naphezu kwezidingo zeqembu. I-Indonesia, yona, yahamba lapho isiyeka ukuba ngumthumeli wangaphandle futhi yaba ngumthumeli wangaphandle, okubonisa ukuthi i-OPEC iwusizo kuphela uma nje ukuphuma kukawoyela ongahluziwe kusaqhubeka nenzuzo.
Inguquko yezobuchwepheshe kanye "nokunciphisa amandla".
Ngale kwezingxabano zezombusazwe, kukhona isitha esingabonakali kodwa esibulalayo se-OPEC: ubuchwepheshe. Ukwanda kwe-fracking, okuhlanganisa ukubhoboza okuvundlile kanye ne-hydraulic fracturing, kuguqule uwoyela negesi kwaba yimithombo eyengeziwe . I-United States isibe ngumdlali ovelele, ithatha ubukhosi emazweni ase-Arab.
Lesi simo, esaziwa ngokuthi ukuthambekela kwamandla, sibonisa ukuthi umhlaba awuhlushwa ukuntuleka kukawoyela, kodwa ubhekene nokuqongelela kwezinto ezigciniwe . Umqondo wokuthi uphethiloli uzophela kakhulu uyinganekwane; okuzokwenzeka ngempela ukuthi, njengoba ubuchwepheshe buthuthuka futhi ukutholakala kukhuphuka, inani lomgqomo wokugcina kawoyela lizothambekela ku-zero, kuqedwe amandla okusongela eqembu le-cortell.
Isakhiwo kanye nomsebenzi wezinto eziphilayo
Ukuze uqonde ukuthi yini elahlekayo, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi i-OPEC yasungulwa ngo-1960 ngenhloso yokuxhumanisa izinqubomgomo zikawoyela ukuvimbela ukunyuka okukhulu kwentengo. Isakhiwo sayo sisekelwe eNgqungqutheleni, lapho ongqongqoshe bezamandla kumele bavume izinqumo ngazwi linye — inqubo engenakwenzeka namuhla ngenxa yezintshisekelo ezingqubuzanayo zamalungu ayo.
- IBhodi Labaphathi: Yingqondo yabaphathi ephethe isabelomali kanye nohlelo.
- IKomidi Lezomnotho: Ihlaziya ukunikezwa kanye nesidingo somhlaba wonke ukuze yenze izincomo zamanani.
- Ihhovisi Likanobhala: Inesibopho sokuqapha ukushaya kwenhliziyo kwansuku zonke kwemakethe yomhlaba wonke.
Ngesikhathi sokuchuma kwayo, i-OPEC yayilawula ingxenye yomkhiqizo womhlaba wonke, kodwa namuhla lelo nani lehle kakhulu. Nakuba umfelandawonye we-OPEC+ (ohlanganisa iRussia namanye amazwe ayishumi) uzama ukubuyisa amandla, ukuntuleka kwesiyalo ekulandeleni ukuncishiswa komkhiqizo kubangele ukuthi leli qembu lilahlekelwe ukwethenjwa ngabatshalizimali.
I-Geopolitics kanye nekusasa likawoyela ongahluziwe
Ubudlelwano phakathi kweSaudi Arabia ne-United Arab Emirates sebube buthakathaka kakhulu, bushintsha busuka kubangane abaseduze buya kubancintisani abalwela ukuba yisikhungo sebhizinisi esivelele esifundeni. Lo mbango, kanye nethonya likaDonald Trump kanye nokugxeka kwakhe njalo i-OPEC ngokusolwa ngokukhohlisa umhlaba, kusheshise ukuhlukana kwale nhlangano.
Uma amanye amalungu afana neVenezuela, i-Iraq, noma i-Iran enquma ukuthi kungcono azenzele yedwa, leli qembu linganyamalala cishe. Nakuba abanye ochwepheshe bekholelwa ukuthi le nhlangano izophinde izivumelanise nezimo, iqiniso liwukuthi ukuguquguquka kwemakethe kuzoba yinto evamile emashumini eminyaka ezayo, njengoba kungeke kube khona inhlangano ephakathi ekwazi ukumisa ukwehla kwentengo noma ukuphakamisa amanani ngokuthanda kwayo.
Isimo samanje sibonisa ukuthi ikhono le-OPEC lokuphatha imakethe liye lehla, okwenze kwaba nesikhathi lapho ukuhlukahluka kwamandla kanye nobuchwepheshe kuqala kunezivumelwano zezombusazwe eVienna. Ukulahlekelwa amalungu abalulekile kanye nokwanda kwabakhiqizi abazimele kusikisela ukuthi ukulawulwa okuphelele kukawoyela manje sekuyinto yakudala.
