Sibuyile! Besivele sifuna ukuvula lo nyaka omusha wokutshala imali ezitokisini futhi sikhohlwe lo nyaka odlule ogcwele imizwa enamandla. Ekhuluma ngokuvula, kubonakala sengathi izazi zezomnotho zeGoldman Sachs ziyinikeze a isipho kwabahlakaniphileyo ngobusuku be-5 ukuze bakwazi ukwabela abatshalizimali. Lesi sipho siyidokhumenti enochungechunge lwemibuzo thina abatshalizimali esingase sibhekane nayo kulo nyaka. Ngakho-ke ake sihlole izindaba ezibaluleke kakhulu okufanele sizikhumbule lapho siphatha iphothifoliyo yethu yokutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko kulo nyaka.
1. Ingabe umnotho wase-US ekugcineni uzongena ekuwohlokeni komnotho? ️
Ngaphansi kombono wosomnotho bakwaGoldman Sachs, bakholelwa ukuthi umnotho wase-United States ngeke ungene e ukunciphisa. Kuyathakazelisa ukuthi umbono wakhe ukude nesilinganiso, lapho ukuvumelana kubeka khona amathuba okungena kokuwohloka komnotho ngaphezu kwama-65% ezinyangeni eziyi-12 ezizayo. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uGoldman Sachs, ubikezela amathuba angama-35%. Ngale mibono, singaqonda ukuthi osomnotho bakwa-Goldman Sachs babona ngeso lengqondo isimo sokufika esithambile somnotho wase-US, lapho ukukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo kulawula ukwehlisa umnotho ukuze kwehliswe ukwehla kwamandla emali ngaphandle kokuwuholela ekuwohlokeni komnotho.
Imithombo: I-Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research/The Wall Street Journal.
Osomnotho bakwaGoldman basekela lo mongo eqinisweni lokuthi asikho isidingo sokuthi singene esimweni sokwehla komnotho ukuze sikwazi ukulawula ukwehla kwamandla emali. Bakholelwa ukuthi kwanele ukuba nenkathi yokukhula ephansi evumela ukuhlinzekwa kanye nesidingo ukuba silinganisele. Lesi sici sihlanganisa imakethe yezabasebenzi, lapho ukungalingani kanye nezingcindezi zamaholo kwenyuse amanani entengo.
2. Izothuthuka kanjani imakethe yezabasebenzi?
Ngokombono wosomnotho bakwaGoldman, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi akufanele kunyuke. Besingabona izinguquko, kodwa ngaphezu kwakho konke, ukunikezwa komsebenzi kuzokwehla, okusho ukuthi bambalwa abangasebenzi. Eqinisweni, ukuhlinzekwa kwabasebenzi sekuvele kwehla, kodwa inani lokudilizwa lihlala liphansi. Ngaso leso sikhathi, ukuhlanganiswa kabusha kwemisebenzi yabantu abangasebenzi isikhathi esifushane kusalokhu kuzinzile, okubonisa ukuthi kusalokhu kunesidingo esinamandla somsebenzi. Ngalezi zinto ezikhona, ukuntuleka kwemisebenzi akufanele kuqhubeke nokukhula.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, kunobudlelwano obungokomlando phakathi kokunikezwa kwemisebenzi nezinga lokungasebenzi. AbakwaGoldman babikezela ukuthi izinga lokuqashwa lizofinyelela ku-6% ekupheleni kuka-2023 kodwa ngesikhathi esifanayo abafuni ukunikeza umoya ongathandeki: babona ubuningi obungu-4,2% ekuqaleni kuka-2024, uma kuqhathaniswa no-3,7% wamanje. , ngaphansi kwalokho i-Federal Reserve ekulindele engxenyeni yayo.
3. I-Fed izowaphatha kanjani amanani enzalo ngo-2023?⚖️
Kubukeka sengathi ngeke ayibambe ibhuleki inzalo. Kusukela ku-Goldman balindele ukuthi i-Federal Reserve (i-Fed) inyuse amanani izikhathi ezintathu (February, March no-May) ngamaphesenti angu-0,25. Lokhu kuzoletha inzalo ye-Fed ibe cishe ku-5-5,25%, uma kuqhathaniswa nombono odumile, owabeka ngaphezu kuka-4,75-5% kulandelwa ukulungiswa okuthile. Lolu daba oluphakanyiswa nguGoldman lusekelwe eqinisweni lokuthi abathembi ukuthi i-Fed izokwehlisa ukuqapha kwayo ngesikhathi sokuqala sokuvuselela umnotho ongase unikeze. Kuyiqiniso ukuthi i-inflation yehlile, kodwa hhayi emazingeni aqinisekisa ukuthi ngeke iphinde yenyuke. Ukunquma ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali kulungile yini ukuqalisa ukwehla kwezinga lenzalo yikhanda eliyinhloko elibhekene ne-Fed.
Ngakho-ke, izazi zezomnotho ze-Goldman zibheka ukuthi izinga lenzalo lizoqhubeka likhuphuka futhi lizogcinwa ngaphandle kwekhefu elingalindelekile (ukwehla komnotho = ukungasebenzi kwanda). Ngemva konyaka wokwenyuka kwezingcindezi zezimali, umnotho uzothola ukukhushulwa okuncane (kodwa okudingekayo). Lokhu kuzoholela ekukhuleni okunamandla, lapho i-Fed ingashiya amanani njengoba ehlala isikhathi eside.
4. Kuzobonakala kanjani ukuthuthukiswa kwezilinganiso zenzalo?⏱️
Esinye isici okufanele sicatshangelwe yisikhathi esisithathayo ukuze imithelela yokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo ye-Federal Reserve ibe nomthelela emnothweni jikelele. UGoldman ulinganisela ukuthi kuthatha cishe izingxenye ezimbili kwezine phakathi kokukhushulwa kwezinga nomthelela wako ekukhuleni komnotho. Lokhu kuhumushela ezindabeni ezinhle, ngoba uGoldman ukholelwa ukuthi imiphumela emibi kakhulu yokunyuka kwezinga lenzalo isivele yenzekile futhi manje isizoshabalala ngo-2023.
Imiphumela ephezulu yokwenyuka kulindeleke ukuthi iphele kancane kancane njengoba unyaka uqhubeka. Lesi sibikezelo sicabangela isimo lapho abatshalizimali bebona kude futhi imiphumela yezomnotho yokwenyuka kwezinga kwenzeka lapho imakethe ikulindele hhayi uma kwenzeka ngempela. Yilokhu okwaziwa ngokuthi “thenga amahemuhemu, uthengise izindaba”, owaziwa kakhulu emhlabeni wokutshala imali.