El Uwoyela uphinde wahlala emkhawulweni wengqondo wama-$100 ngebhereli futhi kusongela ukuhlala lapho isikhathi eside kunalokho obekufiswa. Ukwanda okusha kwamanani kawoyela ongahluziwe, lapho iBrent (isilinganiso saseYurophu) ishintshashintsha phakathi kwama-$100 kanye nama-$120 ezifundweni zakamuva, kuvuselele ukwesaba kwenkinga yamandla emhlabeni jikelele, ikakhulukazi eYurophu. umthelela eSpain nase-European Union, kuncike kakhulu ekungenisweni kwempahla kwamanye amazwe.
Ukuhlanganiswa kwe Impi e-Iran, ukuhlaselwa kwengqalasizinda yamandla kanye nokuvalwa okungokoqobo kweStrait of Hormuz Kunyuse amanani naphezu kwempendulo ephuthumayo evela emazweni athuthukile. Ngisho nesinqumo esingakaze sibonwe yi-International Energy Agency (IEA) sokuyikhipha emakethe. Imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-400 Izinhlaka zokulondoloza amaqhinga zikwazile ukucima umlilo abahlaziyi abaningi abawubona njengo ukushaqeka okukhulu kakhulu kokunikezwa kwempahla emashumini eminyaka.
Impi evala iStrait of Hormuz futhi ikhiphe ukwesaba emakethe kawoyela ongahluziwe
Isisusa salokhu Uwoyela uphinde wenyuka waya ku-$100 Kungukukhula okusheshayo kwempi eMpumalanga Ephakathi. Ukuhlasela kwe-US kanye ne-Israel kwingqalasizinda yase-Iran Futhi ukuziphindiselela kweTehran ezikhungweni zikawoyela negesi emazweni angomakhelwane kuye kwaphakamisa ingxabano yaba sezingeni lesifunda, kwaba nemiphumela esheshayo ekuhlinzekweni kwamandla emhlabeni jikelele.
Iphuzu elibucayi kakhulu yileli I-Strait of Hormuz, umugqa wemikhumbi ongaphezu kwamakhilomitha angu-30 ububanzi lapho
Iphatha cishe ingxenye yesihlanu yamafutha asetshenziswa emhlabenikanye nomthamo omkhulu kakhulu wegesi yemvelo encibilikisiwe. ukuvalwa kwale ndlela ehlelekile Kuye kwasuswa phakathi kwezigidi eziyi-16 nezingama-20 zemiphongolo ngosuku ekukhiqizweni, ngokusho kwezilinganiso ezahlukene, okuphoqelekile Abakhiqizi base-Iraq, eKuwait kanye nabanye baseGulf a ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa kwazo ngenxa yokuntula ukufinyelela emathangini kawoyela.
I-IEA ichaze lesi simo ngokuthi "ukuphazamiseka okukhulu kokunikezwa kwemali emlandweni wemakethe kawoyela yomhlaba wonke"Ukuhlaselwa kwemikhumbi yezimpahla kanye nezindawo zokugcina impahla ePersian Gulf, kanye nezinsongo ezivela kuMholi Ophakeme omusha wase-Iran, uMukhta Khamenei, Ukugcina iHormuz ivaliwe njengethuluzi lezempi nezepolitikiEkugcineni bakhiphe uvalo ezindaweni zokuhweba.
Ezifundweni zakamuva, uBrent ufinyelele ukukhuphuka kwansuku zonke cishe ngo-30%Ifinyelele cishe ku-$120, ngaphambi kokuba ibuyele emuva yaya ku-$100 ngemuva kwezimemezelo zezepolitiki, imihlangano ephuthumayo ye-G7, kanye nemiyalezo exubile evela eWashington. isimo esishubile ngokweqile Kwenza kube nzima ukwazi ukuthi imakethe ikhula kahle yini noma, ngokuphambene nalokho, Okubi kakhulu kungase kufike.
Abahlaziyi abavela ezinhlanganweni ezifana I-Goldman Sachs noma i-Macquarie Baxwayisa ngokuthi uma ukuvinjelwa kweHormuz kuqhubeka, Izimo eziphakathi kuka-$120-$150 ngomgqomo ziya ngokuya zithandwa, futhi bacabangele ngisho nezinkolelo zabo eziyingozi ngamanani aphezulu kakhulu uma kwenzeka ukuphazamiseka isikhathi eside kanye nomonakalo omkhulu emasimini nasezindaweni zokucwenga izimpahla esifundeni.
Impendulo ye-IEA yomlando engaphumeleli uma kuqhathaniswa neHole laseHormuz
Ebhekene nalesi simo, amazwe athuthukile asebenzise ithuluzi lawo elibonakalayo kakhulu lezimo eziphuthumayo: izindawo zokugcina uwoyela zamasuAmalungu angu-32 e-IEA avumile ukukhulula Imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-400, kabili lokho okwasetshenziswa ngo-2022 ngesikhathi senhlekelele eyabangelwa ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine.
Lezi zingxenyana, ezidingekayo kumalungu enhlangano futhi ezilingana okungenani Izinsuku ezingama-90 zokungenisa okungenayoLezi zibalo zifinyelela cishe kumabhareli ayizigidigidi eziyi-1.200 emhlabeni jikelele. Uhlelo lwamanje luzobeka cishe [inani elingekho] ekusakazweni, ngokusho kwezilinganiso zemakethe. Imiphongolo eyengeziwe eyizigidi eziyi-100 ngenyanga eyodwa, cishe imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-3,3 ngosuku.
Ukuqhathaniswa nemiphongolo efinyelela ezigidini ezingu-20 ngosuku ethintwe yiStrait of Hormuz kwenza kube sobala ukungalingani.Ipayipi lincane kakhulu ukuba lingasha.
ISpain ihlanganyela kulo msebenzi ngokukhulula cishe Imiphongolo eyizigidi ezingu-11,5 yezindawo zayo ezigciniwe, umnikelo obalulekile ezweni lonke kodwa ophansi emhlabeni jikelele. Kochwepheshe abaningi, lokhu isinyathelo sokusiza okwesikhashanaIwusizo ekutholeni isikhathi nokugwema ukushoda ngezikhathi ezithile, kodwa ayikwazi ukuzikhokhela ngokwayo ngokuphazamiseka kwempahla eGulf.
Abahlaziyi abanjengo UJosé Manuel Amor noManuel Pinto Bagcizelela isici esengeziwe: noma ngabe uwoyela ongahluziwe omningi ufakwa emakethe, amandla okuhlanza Endaweni ethinteke yimpi, izithiyo zokuthutha zisho ukuthi umphumela entengo yokugcina kaphethiloli uzoba, okungenani, okulinganiselwe futhi ikakhulukazi okwesikhathi esifushane.
Ezigabeni ezifanayo ezedlule, ukukhishwa kwezimali ezigciniwe eziqondiwe kuye kwafeza ukulinganisela amanani esikhathini esimaphakathiNakuba kube nokunyuka kokuqala ngenxa yokungaqiniseki, kulokhu, nokho, ubukhulu bokushaqeka kokunikezwa kanye
Ubude besikhathi sengxabano e-Iran abukabikezelwa. Lokhu kuholela abaningi ababambe iqhaza emakethe ukuthi babheke isu le-IEA njengento engaphezu nje kwalokho isichibi sesikhashana.
Kusukela ku-$100 kuya ephaketheni lakho: umthelela eSpain naseYurophu
EYurophu, ikakhulukazi emazweni angenisa amandla angenayo njenge- EspañaUkubuyela kukawoyela ezinhlwini ezintathu ngokushesha kuhunyushwa ngokuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo kanye nengozi yokukhulaUkusabela sekuvele kubonakala kumaphampu: ngesonto elilodwa nje, Uphethiloli usubize kakhulu ngamasenti angu-15 ngelitha futhi i udizili cishe amasenti angu-28Ngokusho kwedatha yakamuva, lokhu kwandisa umthwalo kubashayeli nezinkampani zokuthutha ngokuzumayo.
Ukwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe kuhambisana nokwehla kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe igesi yemvelo esezingeni elifanele eYurophu, i-TTF yaseDutchokuphinde kwakhuphuka ngaphezu kwe-€50/MWh kanye nokwenyuka kwansuku zonke okucishe kube ngu-4%. Okwamanje, igesi yemvelo ewuketshezi, nayo edlula eStrait of Hormuz, ibhekene nokucindezeleka kokutholakala kwayo, kanye nokushintshashintsha okukhulu kwamanani ezimakethe ezifana neLondon neNetherlands.
El I-European Central Bank Ubheka lesi sinyathelo ngokukhathazeka. Iphini likamongameli wakhe, Luis de GuindosUvumile ukuthi ingxabano e-Iran isivele idala i- "Ukushaqeka kwesipho" okungaphazamisa ukukhula futhi kunyuse amanani futhi endaweni ye-euro. Njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kungazange kuzinze kahle ngemuva kwenkinga yamandla ka-2022, ukwanda okwengeziwe kwezindleko zamandla kuzokwenza kube nzima imephu yesilinganiso senzalo futhi kungaphoqa gcina inqubomgomo yezimali enemingcele isikhathi eside.
Uhulumeni waseSpain, ngakolunye uhlangothi, uthi "ukuqapha eduze" intuthuko yentengongaphandle kokudalula ukuthi yiziphi izinyathelo ezingase zisetshenziswe. UNgqongqoshe Wezomnotho, uCarlos Cuerpo, uphawule ukuthi sekudlule izinsuku ezimbalwa nje selokhu kwaqubuka le nkinga nokuthi ukuziphatha kwemakethe kuyashintshashintsha kakhulu, kodwa futhi wakwenza kwacaca ukuthi Kuzothathwa isinyathelo uma umthelela emindenini ukhula..
Imingcele yentela, noma kunjalo, kunqunyelweISpain ikwazile ukunciphisa isikweletu sayo somphakathi safinyelela cishe ku-100,8% we-GDP, yathuthukisa isikhundla sayo maqondana nobhubhane, kodwa isenawo amandla amakhulu okusebenzisa amaphakheji amakhulu osizo afana nalawo abonwe ngo-2022. Ochwepheshe abanjengo Angel Talavera noma uCalin Arcalean Bakhomba ukuthi izinyathelo zezimali, okungenani, ibhendi ngenxa yokwenyuka okuqhubekayo kwamanani kagesi, nokuthi umongo uhlala ungowomnotho one- Ukwehla kwamandla emali okuphezulu, ukukhula okushisayo, kanye nezinselele ezijulile zesakhiwo.
Izimakethe zamasheya zibomvu: kusukela ku-Ibex kuya ku-Wall Street nase-Asia
Igagasi lokwesaba phezu uwoyela ngo-$100 Lokhu kuthinte ngokushesha izimakethe zamasheya. ESpain, i- Ibex 35 Ilahlekelwe cishe ngo-0,8%-1,2% ezinsukwini zakamuva zokuhweba ezishubile. ewela ngaphansi kwamaphuzu angu-17.000 kanye nokulahlekelwa okuqongelelayo kuze kube manje kulo nyaka. Izindinganiso ezixhumene nomjikelezo wezomnotho kanye nemboni, njenge I-Fluidra, i-ArcelorMittal, i-Merlin noma i-Acerinox, ziholele ekuweni.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, ezinye izinkampani zamandla zenze kangcono. I-Repsol kanye nezikagesi ezifana Qeda Bazuze inzuzo emaphakathi, besebenzisa ithuba lokwenyuka kwamanani ezimpahla, kuyilapho amanye amabhange (iBanco Sabadell, iCaixaBank, i-Unicaja, iBankinter) ekwazile ukubhekana nokulungiswa kangcono ngenxa yokulindela amazinga enzalo aphezulu isikhathi eside.
Lokhu kuthelelana kusemhlabeni wonke. E-Asia, izinkomba ezifana I-Nikkei yaseJapan kanye ne-Kospi yaseNingizimu Korea Baye babhekana nokulungiswa kwansuku zonke okungaphezu kuka-5% ngezikhathi zokucindezeleka okukhulu, okubonisa ukuphakama ukuthembela kwamandla kwezwekaziKulinganiselwa ukuthi cishe Amaphesenti angama-90 kawoyela awela iHormuz aya e-Asia nokuthi iJapan neNingizimu Korea zithembele kulowo mzila ukuze zithole okungaphezu kuka-60% wamafutha angcolile angeniswayo.
E-United States, i-Wall Street nayo izwakele. I-S&P 500 futhi i Nasdaq 100 Babhalise ukwehla okuphakathi kuka-1,5% no-1,8% ngemuva kokuthi i-Brent crude ikhuphuke yaya ku-$100, njengoba imakethe inciphise umphumela we- Izindleko zamandla eziphakeme zithinta izinzuzo zebhizinisi kanye nokusetshenziswa kwalo. the imali engenayo Futhi akusindiswanga: inzuzo yebhondi ye-US Treasury yeminyaka eyishumi isiphinde yasondela ku- 4,20% -4,25%, okubonisa ukwanda kokulindelekile kokukhuphuka kwamanani entengo.
Ezwekazini laseYurophu, ukulungiswa kuye kwavinjelwa kancane kodwa kwasakazeka kabanzi. IParis, iFrankfurt, iLondon, neMilan zivale imihlangano eminingana nge kwehla phakathi kuka-0,3% kanye nangaphezulu kancane kuka-1%, esimweni lapho abatshalizimali besaba ukuthi inhlanganisela Uwoyela obizayo kanye nenzalo ephezulu Lokhu kungalibazisa kakhulu ukukhula okulindelwe ngo-2026.
Isipoki esidala: ngezinye izikhathi uwoyela ongahluziwe udlule u-$100
Izinga $100 ngebhareli Inengxenye enamandla yengqondo yezimakethe. Izazi zezomnotho ezifana UMiguel Sebastian Baveza ukuthi, empeleni, uwoyela ongu-$100 namuhla awufani naseminyakeni emine edlule, ngenxa yokwehla kwamandla emali. Eqinisweni, uma kulungiswa ukwenyuka kwamanani okuvamile, lowo $100 wamanje uzomelela amandla okuthenga aphansi kakhulu kunango-2008 noma ngo-2011.
Noma kunjalo, umkhawulo usebenza njenge isignali ye-alamuEmashumini eminyaka amuva nje, kuye kwahlotshaniswa neziqephu ze- ukungezwani okukhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nokungalingani kokunikezwa kanye nesidingoUkuqhuma okukhulu kokuqala kwenzeke e- Isiqephu sika-2008lapho uwoyela udlula u-$100 ngoMashi futhi waze wafika ngisho $147 ngebhareli Ehlobo, ngenxa yesidingo esikhulu esivela kwezomnotho ezisafufusa njengeShayina kanye nokuqagela ezimakethe, kwaze kwaba yilapho inkinga yezezimali yomhlaba wonke ibangela kokubili ukukhula kanye nentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ukwehla.
La isigaba sesibili esikhulu Amanani kawoyela angaphezu kwama-$100 aqale kusukela ngo-2011 kuya maphakathi no-2014. Futhi, ukwenyuka kwentengo kwakungenxa yokusetshenziswa okwandayo emazweni afana neShayina neNdiya kanye ne- ukungazinzi ezweni lama-ArabhuIntwasahlobo yama-Arabhu, impi yombango eLibya, izijeziso ezibhekiswe e-Iran, kanye nokungezwani e-Iraq kanye neStrait of Hormuz uqobo. OPEC Yalinganisela ukunikezwa kwemali ngaphansi kobuthakathaka bedola, yandisa amanani aphezulu kwaze kwaba yilapho ikhula uwoyela we-shale e-United States Kwashintsha ibhalansi yemakethe futhi kwaphoqa abakhiqizi abaningi bendabuko ukuba bandise ukupompa kwabo.
Muva nje, i Ukuhlasela kweRussia e-Ukraine ngo-2022 I-Brent crude ibuyele ezinombolo ezintathu ezinyangeni ezimbalwa, kanti inani layo likhuphuke kakhulu. $110 ngebhareli Ngemva kwezijeziso zaseNtshonalanga ku-oyela waseRussia, leyo nkinga yancishiswa ngenxa yokwanda komkhiqizo kwamanye amazwe kanye nezindlela ezihlukile iMoscow eyazithola zokuthengisa i-crude kubalingani abafana neChina ne-India, yize kwakuzobiza ukugcina ukungezwani okukhulu kwezepolitiki kanye nezinguquko ku- izikhundla zabatshalizimali.
Manje, ngokugxila e-Iran kanye nokuvalwa kweStrait of Hormuz, ochwepheshe bagcizelela ukuthi Inkinga yangempela ayidluli kakhulu ku-$100 njengobukhulu kanye nobude bokugxuma uma kuqhathaniswa nezinga langaphambilini. Ukushaqeka kwamanje kuza ngemuva kokuba ohulumeni abaningi nezinhlangano zamazwe ngamazwe basebenzisane nezibikezelo zentengo ye-Brent mayelana 60-70 amadola eminyakeni ezayo, yini esele
izinhlaka eziningi zezomnotho eziphelelwe yisikhathi futhi kuphakamisa imibuzo mayelana indlela yokutshala imali ku-oyela.
Izingozi zemindeni namabhizinisi: ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, izimali mboleko kanye nezindleko zamandla
Kumuntu ojwayelekile, ukwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ngaphezu kwamaRandi ayi-100 kuholela ekutheni amandla okuthenga aphansiUkwenyuka kwezindleko zikaphethiloli kanye nedizili kuthinta ngqo izindleko zokusebenzisa imoto, ukuthutha izimpahla, kanye nokusebenza emikhakheni ethembele kakhulu kumafutha angaphansi komhlaba. Njengoba amaphampu eletha amalitha ambalwa ngemali efanayo, Umphumela ebhasikidini lokuthenga uvela ngokusabela ochungechungeni.Izindleko zezokuthutha ziyakhuphuka, imikhiqizo yezimboni kanye nokudla kuyabiza kakhulu, futhi izinzuzo zezinkampani zingaphansi kwengcindezi.
Okwamanje, ukubuya kwentengo kawoyela negesi kuyabhebhethekisa ukuvela kwe-EuriborIzinga lokulinganisa lezigidi zemali mboleko eSpain. Uma izimakethe ziqala ukulindela ukuthi i-ECB izogcina amazinga aphezulu ukuze ivimbele igagasi elisha lokwehla kwamandla emali, izinkokhelo zemali mboleko zinganda, okuzonciphisa kakhulu imali engenayo yemindeni.
Izinkampani, zona ngokwazo, zibhekene ingaphambili eliphindwe kabiliIzindleko zamandla eziphezulu kanye nesidingo esingaba buthaka uma abathengi beqinisa amabhande abo. Imikhakha edinga amandla kakhulu—imboni esindayo, ezokuthutha, amakhemikhali, i-metallurgy—yiyo yokuqala ukuzwa umthelela, kodwa umphumela ekugcineni usakazekela engxenyeni enkulu yomnotho, kusukela ekuphatheni izivakashi kuya ekuthengiseni.
Nokho, abanye abahlaziyi baveza ukuthi IYurophu ayisengozini kangako kawoyela obizayo namuhla kunaseminyakeni engama-30 noma engama-40 edlule.Ukusebenza kahle kwamandla okukhulu, ukuhlukahluka kwemithombo yamandla, kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemithombo evuselelekayo kuvumela ukukhiqizwa okuphezulu kwe-GDP ngamabhareli ambalwa kawoyela kunangesikhathi esidlule. Kodwa-ke, lokhu kuthuthuka akuqinisekisi ukuzivikela ekukhuphukeni kwentengo okubukhali nokunamandla. Ukushaqeka kwentengo okufana nokwamanje kungaqhubeka nokuba nemiphumela ebalulekile ekukhuphukeni kwamanani entengo, ekukhuleni, kanye nasemisebenzini..
Imibiko evela ezinhlanganweni ezifana neBarclays nayo ikhomba ku- imiphumela engaqondile ezidlula uphethiloli. Endabeni yaseSpain, isibonelo, ukuncika ezintweni ezithile zamakhemikhali ezingeniswa esifundeni (njenge ama-nitrite nama-nitrate asetshenziswa embonini yenyamaLokhu kungaholela ekwenyukeni kwentengo yokudla okunye okucutshunguliwe futhi kubeke ingcindezi emapulazini emfuyo kanye nabakhiqizi.
Nge intengo kawoyela ibuyele emuva cishe ku-$100Njengoba iStrait of Hormuz icishe ivinjiwe kanye nempi e-Iran engenamphumela ocacile, isimo esivele sikhona ukuthi izinyanga ezimbalwa zokungaqiniseki okukhulu kwamandla, lapho izinqumo zohulumeni, amabhange amakhulu, kanye nabakhiqizi abakhulu zizonquma ukuthi le nkinga isalokhu iyisimo sokwesaba okukhulu kodwa esifushane noma ishintsha ibe yisiqephu eside se- ukukhuphuka kwamanani entengo, ukukhula okubuthakathaka, kanye nezimakethe zezimali ezingaphansi kwengcindeziNjengoba iSpain kanye neYurophu yonke iphinda idlula phakathi kwesidingo sokuvikela imindeni namabhizinisi kanye nemingcele yezimali zomphakathi esezivele zicindezelekile.
