Isonto lokuqala eligcwele lika-Agasti liza nomcimbi ongaphuthelwa ngabatshalizimali: umbiko wemiholo engeyona eyezolimo yase-US kaJulayi . Ngemuva kukaJuni lapho ukudalwa kwemisebenzi kwehle kakhulu kulokho obekulindelwe ngezikhundla ezingu-57.000 kuphela, imakethe ilinde ngabomvu izindaba zokuthi lokhu kwakuyinto engavamile noma ukuqala kokwehla okukhulu. I-Federal Reserve, egcine amazinga enzalo ebangeni lika-3,50% kuya ku-3,75% emhlanganweni wayo wokugcina ngamavoti amathathu aphikisanayo avumela ukuwakhuphula, ibhekisisa le datha ukuze ihlole isinyathelo sayo esilandelayo.
Ukuvumelana kwabahlaziyi kukhomba ekudalweni kwemisebenzi ephakathi kuka-80.000 no-91.000, kanti izinga lokungasebenzi lingase likhuphuke lisuka ku-4,2% liye ku-4,3%. Ukukhula okumaphakathi kwemali engenayo ngehora kulindeleke ukuthi kuhlale ku-0,3% inyanga nenyanga , okwenza ushintsho lonyaka nonyaka lube ngu-3,5%. Lezi zibalo, yize zincane, ngeke zanele ukuthi i-Fed inciphise inqubomgomo yayo yezimali, njengoba ukukhuphuka kwentengo okuyinhloko kuhlala kungaphezu komgomo ongu-2% futhi imakethe yezabasebenzi isabonisa izimpawu zokucindezeleka kweminye imikhakha.
Ukupholisa okuhlelekile noma ukungasebenzi kahle?
Umbuzo omkhulu obhekene nemakethe yamasheya ukuthi ngabe imakethe yezabasebenzi yase-US ibhekene nokupholisa kancane kancane futhi okulawulwayo noma, ngokuphambene nalokho, iya ekumeni okungase kubonise ukwehla komnotho. Idatha kaJune, ngokudalwa kwemisebenzi okubuthakathaka kangaka, yabangela imibiko yokwethuka , kodwa ukwehla kwezinga lokungasebenzi ku-4,2% ngaleyo nyanga kuthumele izimpawu ezixubile. Izazi zezomnotho zeDeutsche Bank zilindele ukuthi umbiko kaJulayi ubonise ukusheshisa okuncane emisebenzini engu-65.000, kanti i-Crédit Agricole ibeka inani ku-75.000. Kunoma ikuphi, zonke izibikezelo ziyavuma ukuthi ijubane lokuqasha lihlala lingaphansi kwalokho okudingekayo ukuze kugcinwe ukungasebenzi kuzinzile esikhathini eside.
Okwamanje, i-Fed izithola isengozini. UMengameli we-Kansas City Federal Reserve uJeff Schmid ugcizelele ukuthi kudingeka ukuqinisa okwengeziwe kwenqubomgomo yezimali ukuze kubuyiselwe ukwehla kwamandla emali ku-2%, ethi "kuphezulu kakhulu." Ngokufanayo, uSihlalo we-Fed uKevin Warsh uphinde wathi izinqumo zesikhathi esizayo zizoncika kudatha, zilinganise ukwehla kwamandla emali kanye nezingozi zomnotho. Ikusasa lenzalo libeka amanani ethubeni elicishe libe ngu-64% lokunyuka kwamanani emhlanganweni kaSepthemba, ngokusho kwedatha ye-LSEG, kanye namaphuzu ayisisekelo angu-35 okuqina ekupheleni konyaka.
Isandulelo sedatha: i-JOLTS, i-ADP kanye ne-ISM
Ngaphambi kombiko wangoLwesihlanu wemiholo engeyona eyezolimo, abatshalizimali bazoba nezinkomba eziningana zokubasiza ukuthi babheje. Umbiko wokuvulwa kwemisebenzi kaJuni JOLTS, okhishwe ngoLwesibili , kulindeleke ukuthi ubonise ukwehla okuncane kuya ku-7,25 million kusuka ku-7,59 million wangaphambilini. Ukwehla okulinganiselwe kwezikhala zomsebenzi kuzokwamukelwa yi-Fed, njengoba kuzonciphisa ingcindezi yamaholo ngaphandle kokubangela ukwanda kokungasebenzi. Kodwa-ke, uma ukwehla kukhulu futhi kuhambisana nokwanda kwezimangalo zokuntuleka kwemisebenzi, imakethe ingakuchaza njengophawu lobuthakathaka besakhiwo.
NgoLwesithathu, umbiko wokuqashwa kwe-ADP, owaziwa ngokuthi "i-mini-NFP," uzokhishwa, ubikezela imisebenzi emisha engu-70.000 emkhakheni ozimele, wehle usuka ku-98.000 ngoJuni. Lesi sibalo sivame ukusetshenziswa njenge-barometer, yize singahambisani njalo nezibalo ezisemthethweni . Futhi ngoLwesithathu, i-ISM Services Index kaJulayi izokhishwa, okulindeleke ukuthi ihlale endaweni enwetshiwe ngokufundwa kwamaphuzu angu-54,3. Izinkomba ezincane zomsebenzi namanani akhokhelwe zizobhekwa eduze, njengoba zingabonisa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwamanani emkhakheni wezinsizakalo kusaqhubeka yini.
NgoLwesine, izicelo zamasonto onke zokuntuleka kwemisebenzi zizoqedela lesi simo ngaphambi kosuku olukhulu. Kulindeleke ukwanda okuncane kube ngu-201.000, kusuka ku-197.000 ngesonto eledlule , okungabonisa ukuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi ayiwohloki kakhulu.
Izimo ezintathu zangoLwesihlanu
Abahlaziyi bacabangela imiphumela emithathu engaba khona yombiko wemiholo engeyona eyezolimo, ngayinye inemiphumela ehlukile ngedola, imali engenayo engaguquki, kanye namasheya. Esimweni sokuqala, uma idatha idlula kakhulu okulindelwe - isibonelo, ngokungeza imisebenzi engaphezu kwe-100.000, ukungasebenzi kuqhubeka njalo kanye namaholo enyuka - idola lizoqina, isivuno sezimali sizokhuphuka, futhi igolide lingacindezelwa. Amathemba okunyuka kwezinga likaSepthemba azoqina, futhi amasheya obuchwepheshe anenani eliphezulu azoba yiwona athinteka kakhulu.
Esimweni sesibili, okungenzeka kakhulu ngokuvumelana, izibalo zizohambisana nokulindelekile : cishe imisebenzi engu-85.000-91.000, ukungasebenzi ku-4,3%, kanye namaholo azinzile. Lokhu kuzoqinisekisa ukupholisa kancane kancane kodwa okuhlelekile, okuhlinzeka impumuzo ethile ezimpahleni ezisengozini. Idola lingahamba ngaphakathi kwebanga ngaphandle kwesiqondiso esicacile, kuyilapho igolide lizohlala lihlanganisiwe. Ukunaka kuzobe sekushintshela kudatha ezayo yokwehla kwamandla emali kanye nokuqashwa ngaphambi komhlangano kaSepthemba.
Isimo sesithathu, esesatshwa kakhulu, kungaba yisibalo esingaphansi kakhulu kwalokho obekulindelwe , lapho ukudalwa kwemisebenzi kucishe kube yi-zero noma kube kubi, ukungasebenzi kukhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-4,3%, kanye nokukhula kwamaholo kwehla. Uma kunjalo, imakethe izoshintsha ngokushesha ibe yindlela yokuzivikela: idola lizowa, isivuno sebhondi sizokwehla, kanye negolide lizokhula njengempahla ephephile. Ukulindela kokunciphisa inzalo kuzozuza ukuthandwa, yize ukwesaba ukwehla komnotho kungathinta amasheya, ikakhulukazi imikhakha ejikelezayo.
Ukuhlanganiswa kokukhula kwemisebenzi, izinga lokungasebenzi, ukukhula kwamaholo, kanye nokubuyekezwa kwedatha yangaphambilini kuzonquma ubukhulu bokulungiswa kokulindelekile mayelana ne-Fed. Akwanele ukubheka nje inani eliyinhloko : abatshalizimali bezikhungo bazohlaziya ukuthi imakethe yezabasebenzi iyaqhubeka yini nokukhiqiza ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali noma ukuthi, ngokuphambene nalokho, ipholile ngokwanele yini ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi likwazi ukukhokhela ikhefu elide.
Ngamafuphi, umbiko wemiholo kaJulayi ongeyona eyepulazi awuyona nje enye iphuzu ledatha ekhalendeni. Yingxenye ebalulekile engachaza kabusha inkambo yenqubomgomo yezimali ezinyangeni ezizayo . Njengoba i-Fed ihlukene futhi ukwehla kwamandla emali kusekude nomgomo wayo, noma yikuphi ukumangala okukhulu kungabangela ukunyakaza okukhulu ezimakethe. Abahwebi bangaba ukuhlakanipha ukulungiselela isonto lokuguquguquka okuphezulu, beqapha ngokucophelela ukukhishwa ngakunye futhi belawula ubungozi ngokuhlakanipha.