Intengo yokutshala izimali ezitokisini kungenzeka ukuthi yehlile kulo nyaka, kodwa i-hedge fund Bridgewater Ukholwa wukuthi abakashayi phansi. Baqhathanise isimo samanje nezimakethe zamabhere eziqhutshwa yi-inflation esikhathini esidlule. Ngokubona kwakhe, isimo samanje kufanele sibe sibi kakhulu ukuze siqale ukubona ukuthuthuka. Ake sibone-ke ukuthi kungani iBridgewater yesaba ukuthi ukutshalwa kwezimali ezitokisini kuzoqhubeka nokwehla...
Yini okufanele yenzeke ukuze izitoko ziqhubeke nokuwa?
I-Bridgewater ikhombe ukuthi izimakethe zamabhere zivame ukulandela izigaba ezimbili, njengoba sichazile kwenye indatshana. Ake sibuyekeze lezo zigaba ezimbili:
Izilinganiso ziphansi.
Ukwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo kunciphisa inani lamanje lokugeleza kwemali kwenkampani kwesikhathi esizayo (FCF). Futhi njengoba amanani enzalo ephakeme evame ukubangela zonke izinhlobo zezinkinga emnothweni, aphinde alimaze ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali, okusho ukuthi bahlala kude nokutshala imali esitokweni. Ngakho-ke, ukuze ukutshala imali ezitokisini kubonakale kukhanga kakhulu, amanani ezinkampani kufanele ehle. Kuze kube manje, lokho kuhle kakhulu esikubonile kulo nyaka.
Ukuqhathaniswa kwenzuzo yamasheya ngokwehla kwezinga lenzalo. Umthombo: Bridgewater.
Izinzuzo eziphansi.
Lesi sigaba sincane mayelana nokulinganisa kanye nomuzwa wemakethe, futhi okuningi mayelana nomnotho wangempela kanye nenzuzo yenkampani. I izinga lenzalo liyakhuphuka kuholela ekukhuleni komnotho okuphansi. Into wukuthi zithinta imikhakha ehlukene yezomnotho ngokubambezeleka okuhlukene, ngakho-ke akuyona yonke imikhakha ezokwehla ngesikhathi esisodwa. Ngakho-ke, noma ngabe umkhakha ohamba phambili njengezindlu uqala ukwehla, kungathatha izinyanga ezimbalwa ukuthi inzuzo yenkampani ilandele. Futhi uma imali etholwayo ihamba kancane kunalokho okulindelwe yimakethe, njengoba ivame ukwenza, amanani esitoko avame ukuwa futhi. Kungashiwo ukuthi asikakasitholi leso sigaba, kodwa kungenzeka ukuthi siyasondela kuso.
Isici esinqumayo sekusasa lokutshala izimali ezitokisini kuzoba inzuzo. Umthombo: Bridgewater.
Yini okudingeka yenzeke ukuze izitoko zibuye?
Abasuka e-Bridgewater baqinisekisa ukuthi imibandela emithathu kufanele kuhlangatshezwane nayo ukuze izitoko ziphinde zikhule ekwehleni okubangelwa ukwehla kwamandla emali. Okokuqala, umnotho kumele wehle kakhulu. Khona-ke amabhange amakhulu kufanele axegise izimo zamanje, okungukuthi, inzalo ephansi. Okokugcina, imbuyiselo yesikhathi eside elindelwe ezitokisini kufanele ibe phezulu ngokwanele ukuze kugqugquzelwe abatshalizimali ukuthi babakhethe phezu kwezimpahla eziphephile njengamabhondi. I-Bridgewater ishicilele leli thebula, lapho singabona khona ukuthi lezi zimo zenzeka cishe ngaso sonke isikhathi lapho ukutshalwa kwezimali ezitokisini kutholwa ezimakethe zamabhere zangaphambilini zokwehla kwamandla emali.
Ithebula elihambisana nezimakethe ezihlukene zamabhere e-inflation. Umthombo: Bridgewater Associates.
So Have Stocks Hit Bottom?路♂️
Okwamanje, akubukeki njengokutshala imali esitokweni. Lokhu kungenxa yezizathu ezimbalwa: Umnotho usaqine kakhulu. Ukuqiniseka, ezinye izinkomba ezihamba phambili (njengemakethe yezindlu kanye nokuzethemba kwabathengi) zehlile, futhi amanye amamethrikhi afana ne-ISM Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) nawo ahamba kancane. Kodwa kuze kube manje, izinkomba ezibalulekile ezifana nokuchithwa kwabathengi kanye nemakethe yezabasebenzi zihlala ziqinile ngokumangalisayo.
Imbuyiselo yesikhathi eside elindelwe ezitokweni iphansi kakhulu. Umthombo: Bridgewater
Ngaphezu kwalokho, abatshalizimali basakuxwayile ukutshala imali esitokweni. Izinzuzo zesikhathi eside ezilindelwe ze-S&P 500 zibukeka zikhanga kakhulu njengamanje kunasekuqaleni konyaka, kodwa singaphikisa ngokuthi zisephansi kakhulu ukuheha abatshalizimali. Asikakuboni ukuvuma kwangempela (lapho abatshalizimali bephonsa ithawula). Nakuba izilinganiso zibuyele esilinganisweni sazo, azizange zehlele phansi njengoba kuvame ukwenzeka ezimakethe zamabhere. Futhi uma kubhekwa amazinga amanje esivuno, ukutshala izimali ezitokisini kuhlala kungakhangi kangako kunokutshala imali kumabhondi, ngakho-ke amanani kungase kudingeke ehle ukuze abatshalizimali baqale ukuthenga amasheya futhi.
Liyini ithuba?類
NjengoBridgewater, nathi sikholwa ukuthi sesifike ekugcineni. Uma izinga lenzalo lerekhodi le-Federal Reserve likhuphuka licindezela umnotho ekuwohlokeni komnotho ezinyangeni ezizayo, inzuzo yebhizinisi ingase yehle ngaphezu kwalokho okulindelwe yimakethe, futhi ukutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko cishe kuzowuzwa umthelela. Ukukhula kancane komnotho kungacindezela ukwehla kwamandla emali ngendlela efanele futhi kuvumele i-Fed ukuthi igcine inciphise inqubomgomo yayo yezimali enolaka. Ngaleso sikhathi, izimo ze-Bridgewater rebound zingenzeka.
Isibikezelo sokuthuthuka kokwehla kwamandla emali e-US eminyakeni emi-2 ezayo. Umthombo: Bloomberg.
Uma uvumelana neBridgewater, singathenga amabhondi kaMgcinimafa. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi kufanele bahlomule njengoba umnotho nokwehla kwamandla emali kuba buthaka. Igolide lingenza kahle, ikakhulukazi uma ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kuqinile kunalokho obekulindelwe. Kodwa uma ungenaso isiqiniseko sokuthi kuzokwenzekani, into ephephe kunazo zonke kungaba ukuklama iphothifoliyo elinganiselayo yezimpahla ngokuvamile esebenza kahle ezimeni ezehlukene zomnotho omkhulu, njengoba siphakamisa Lesi sihloko.