Umkhakha wamabhange aseSpain ubhekene nesikhathi lapho ukulinganiswa kwemakethe yesitoko kanye amanani aqondiwe abahlaziyi Sebeyisibonelo esiyinhloko sabatshalizimali abaningi. Ngemva kweminyaka eminingana yenzuzo enamandla, izinkampani zamazwe ngamazwe seziqala ukulungisa ukuhlaziywa kwazo futhi zihlukanise ngokucacile ukuthi yiziphi izinkampani ezisenendawo yokwazisa nokuthi yiziphi, okungenani ngaphandle, esezifinyelele umkhawulo wazo.
Imibiko yakamuva evela kumafemu afana IBhange laseMelika, uMorgan Stanley, iDeutsche Bank, i-UBS kanye neBarclays Badweba isithombe esiyinkimbinkimbi kodwa esiveza kakhulu: ukuvumelana akusathengi "amabhange aseSpain" ewonke, kodwa izindaba ezithile, ngamanani ahlukene kakhulu kuye ngephrofayili yenhlangano ngayinye, ikhono layo lokukhiqiza imali kanye nokubonakala kwemiphumela yayo yesikhathi esizayo.
I-BBVA, ibhange elinamandla amakhulu ngokusho kweBhange laseMelika
Embikweni wakamuva ovela esigabeni sayo sokuhlaziya izibambiso, I-Bank of America ibeke i-BBVA ohlwini njengenketho ekhethwayo ngaphakathi komkhakha wamabhange waseSpain obhalwe ku-Ibex 35. Le nkampani yase-US iqokomisa "i-franchise yekhwalithi efiselekayo" yeqembu, esekelwa yi amasheya emakethe aqinile eMexico, eTürkiye naseSpainfuthi igcina isincomo se-Buy sesitoko.
Ibhange lokutshala imali likhulise kakhulu Intengo eqondiwe ye-BBVA kufika kuma-euro angama-24,30Lokhu kumelela ukwenyuka kusuka entengo yangaphambilini ye-€21, okuhumusha kube amandla okwenyuka acishe abe ngu-22% emazingeni asetshenziswe ekuhlaziyeni kwabo. Lokhu kwenyuka kubeka ibhange laseBasque phambili kulo mkhakha ngokwenyuka okulinganisiwe, esimweni lapho imakethe yayisivele ibeke intengo engxenyeni enkulu yesilinganiso sangaphambilini.
Okwamanje, iBhange laseMelika nalo lithatha indlela eyakhayo CaixaBankokuyinto futhi eyincomayo isilinganiso se-Buy ngemva kokubuyekeza izibikezelo zayo phezulu. intengo eqondiwe yebhange laseCatalan kusuka ku-10 kuya ku- Ama-euro angu-12 ngesabelo ngasinyeLokhu kusho ukuthi kungenzeka kube nokunyuka okungaba ngu-16%, okungaphansi kancane kwalokho kwe-BBVA kodwa okusabalulekile kulo mkhakha.
Endabeni Unicaja BankUmbono uhlukile kakhulu: intengo eqondiwe ikhuphuka isuka ku-2,75 iye ku- I-3,10 eurongenzuzo engaba khona engu-14%, kodwa isincomo sehlisiwe kusukela ku-Buy kuya ku-Neutral. Santander y SabadellLe nkampani iphinde ibeke isincomo endaweni engathathi hlangothi, ngamanani aqondiwe e- Ama-11 kanye nama-3,60 euros ngokulandelana, okumelela ukuhlaziywa kabusha okungenzeka cishe okungu-9% kuzo zombili izitoko.
Ukufunda kunzima kakhulu I-Bankinterlapho iBhange laseMelika linikeza khona isincomo sokungaqhubi kahle. Nakuba liphakamisa intengo yalo eqondiwe ku- I-13,20 euro (kusukela kuma-euro angu-11,50), isimo sayo sisho ukwehla okungenzeka cishe ku-5%, uma kubhekwa ukuthi imakethe isihambe kakhulu emalini ekhokhwayo kule nhlangano uma kuqhathaniswa namanye amabhange okuthengisa aseSpain.
Konke lokhu kuhlelwe ngombono omuhle ngomnotho wezwe: abahlaziyi abavela I-Bank of America ilinganisela ukuthi iSpain ikhula ngesilinganiso esincane esiseduze no-4%., ngaphezu kwesilinganiso sendawo ye-euro kanye neminotho eminingi ethuthukile, futhi bagcizelela ukuthi Amanani esikweletu eSpain ahlala “enempilo”, ngamazinga onyaka nonyaka aphakathi kuka-5% no-7%, emazingeni aphezulu kakhulu kusukela ngo-2009.
UMorgan Stanley: amanani aqinile ngemuva konyaka oyingqayizivele
Ngokungafani nombono weBhange laseMelika obanzi kakhulu, umbiko wakamuva ovela ku- Morgan Stanley Kwethula isici sokuqapha. Le nkampani iyavuma ukuthi amabhange aseSpain asayine enye yezivivinyo ezinhle kakhulu emlandweni wayongokuhlaziywa kabusha kwezinombolo ezimbili noma ezintathu, kodwa ixwayisa ngokuthi ingxenye enkulu ye-rally ingase iqedwe kakade ezimweni eziningana, into ebonakala ngokucacile ku- amanani okuhlosiwe.
En CaixaBankUMorgan Stanley ugcina isincomo "sesisindo semakethe" futhi ulungisa kancane intengo eqondiwe iye phezulu, kusukela ku-10,50 kuya ku- I-10,90 euroNjengoba amasheya ehweba cishe ngo-€10,65 ngesikhathi sombiko, isilinganiso esilinganiselwe sehlisiwe saba yi-a Amandla engeziwe angu-2%, inani eliphansi lesitoko esasiphinde kabili imali yaso emakethe ngonyaka odlule.
Ukuxilongwa kuyinkimbinkimbi nakakhulu ku- I-BankinterLe nkampani yocwaningo igcina isincomo sayo "sesisindo semakethe" futhi inyusa intengo eqondiwe ibe yi- I-14,50 euroKodwa khumbula ukuthi inani selivele lihweba cishe kulelo zinga, okushiya amandla aphelelwe cishe ngemuva konyaka lapho ibhange lithole khona inzuzo ecishe ibe ngu-95%, lazihlanganisa njengelinye lamabhizinisi aqinile kakhulu kulo mkhakha.
para BBVAUMorgan Stanley uphinde walungisa intengo yakhe ebekiwe, yize ilinganiselwe kakhulu: yehle isuka ku-20,50 yaya ku-1.50. I-20,70 euroukugcina isincomo "sesisindo semakethe". Inkinga iwukuthi, njengoba isitokwe sihamba kancane ngaphezu kwalelo zinga, inkampani Akaboni intuthuko eyengeziwe eya ku-2026., naphezu kokuxhaswa okukhulu okutholakale ngemuva kokuthengwa kweBanco Sabadell kanye nokuhlaziywa kabusha kwenani elingaphezu kuka-120% eliqongelelwe ezinyangeni zamuva.
Inothi elibi kakhulu liwela I-UnicajaNakuba uMorgan Stanley enyusa intengo eqondiwe isuka ku-2,20 iye ku- I-2,25 euroIgcina isincomo "sokukhuluphala ngokweqile" ngoba isitoko ngokusobala sihweba ngaphezu kwalelo zinga, cishe u-€2,85, okuhunyushwa kube yi- ukwehla okungenzeka cishe ku-21%Lokhu kuhlukile kakhulu uma ubheka ukuthi i-Unicaja yayingenye yamabhange asebenze kahle kakhulu kwi-Ibex ngonyaka wezimali odlule.
I-Deutsche Bank ne-UBS: umhlangano uyaqhubeka, kodwa ngokukhetha okuhle
Esinye isici esibalulekile sokuqonda intengo eqondiwe yamabhange aseSpain Lokhu kunikezwa ukuhlaziywa kwe- Ibhange laseDeutsche kanye ne-UBSBabheka kakhulu umkhakha waseYurophu wonkana kodwa banikela ukugxila okukhethekile ezinhlanganweni ze-Ibex 35. Ukuxilongwa kwabo ukuthi ukuhlangana kwamabhange akukaqhubeki, kodwa kungena esigabeni esikhetha kakhulu lapho ukukhetha izikhundla ezifanele kuzoba yinto ebalulekile.
Ngokwezibalo zeDeutsche Bank, amabhange aseYurophu ahweba, ngokwesilinganiso, ku- Inzuzo elinganisiwe iphindwe ka-10,6 kanye nenani layo lencwadi eliphindwe ka-1,6ngesaphulelo esingaba ngu-30% uma kuqhathaniswa nemakethe iyonke. Ngokubuyisela, lo mkhakha unikeza imbuyiselo kumasheya abonakalayo (i-RoTE) cishe 15%Lokhu, ngokomthetho, kushiya isikhala sokubuyekezwa okwengeziwe okukhushulwayo ukuze kutholakale amanani aqondiwe uma imiphumela ivuma.
Umehluko omkhulu uma uqhathaniswa neminyaka edlule, kuchaza abahlaziyi, ukuthi imakethe ayisazimisele ukuvuza wonke amabhange ngokulinganayo. Phakathi neminyaka yokwenyuka kwezinga lenzalo, ukukhushulwa kwenzuzo, kanye nokukhiqizwa kwemali ngokushesha, Ulwandle lwaphakamisa cishe yonke imikhumbi.Manje, endaweni lapho ukulinganisa amanani kudinga kakhulu, abatshalizimali bazogxila kakhulu ku- ikhwalithi yezinzuzo, amandla okukhula kanye nenqubomgomo yenzuzo yenhlangano ngayinye ngaphambi kokulungisa amanani ayo ahlosiwe; phakathi kwalawo izici zinethonya ngokuzimisela.
Kulesi simo esisha, amabhange aseSpain, ngokusho kweDeutsche Bank, aqala esikhundleni esivelele. ISantander neBBVA “zisesimweni se-pole” ye-Ibex 35 ukuze iqhubeke nokuheha ukugeleza kokutshalwa kwezimali, okusekelwa yinzuzo ephezulu kanye nekhono labo lokuqhubeka nokuvuza abanikazi bamasheya. Endabeni ye-BBVA, ibhange laseJalimane ligcizelela ukuthi inzuzo ingadlula 20%, ngenqubomgomo yesabelo-mali esisebenza njengenethi yokuphepha yentengo yamasheya.
Kodwa-ke, abahlaziyi baveza ukuthi ububanzi bokubuyekeza amanani aqondiwe phezulu buzoncika ekusebenzeni kwemiphumela yekota. Eqinisweni, ezinye izilinganiso ezivunyelwene ngazo, njengeBloomberg, zize zisikisele ukuthi ngezinye izikhathi Intengo ejwayelekile yesabelo se-BBVA ingaphansi kwentengo yamanje yamasheyangethuba elincane lokwehla, okubonisa ukuthi ezinye izilinganiso ziqala ukuba nzima kangakanani ngemva komhlangano.
I-UBS inezela okunye okuhlukile: ucwaningo lwayo mayelana nokuhambisana nezinkathi kusukela ngo-2020 lubonisa ukuthi UJanuwari uvame ukuba yinyanga evumayo kumabhangeKodwa-ke, uMashi uvame ukuba yisikhathi esinzima, esingashukumisela abanye abahlanganyeli bemakethe ukuthi bathole inzuzo ngemuva kokuqala kahle konyaka. Lokhu kuguquguquka kwesizini kuphinde kuthonye indlela abatshalizimali abahumusha ngayo amanani aqondiwe, angase abonakale ehlelekile noma enolaka kuye ngesigaba somjikelezo wezomnotho.
ISantander, indawo egxile kakhulu enamanani aphakanyisiwe
Ngaphakathi kwendawo yonke yamabhange aseSpain, I-Banco Santander Igxila kakhulu emibikweni yakamuva evela ezinkampanini ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe, kokubili ngenxa yobukhulu bazo kanye nendlela yesikhathi esiphakathi ebangelwa yizo kanye nezinkampani zazo. imiphumelaLe nhlangano ibe ngomunye wabasunguli abakhulu be-Ibex ngenxa ukuhlaziywa kwezinombolo ezintathu ngonyaka odlule, okwenza kube nesidingo sokuthuthukisa ukuhlolwa.
Kuleli qophelo, ukuhlaziywa kwe- ama-barclays, eqhubeka nezincomo zayo zokwehlisa isisindo samasheya futhi inyuse intengo eqondiwe kusukela 10,10 kuya ku-11,30 euros ngesabelo ngasinyeLelo zinga lingasho ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi intengo ebikiwe ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-10%, okuyisilinganiso esimangalisayo uma ubheka ukuthi isitoko sesivele sithole ukwehla okukhulu.
I-Barclays iqinisekisa lokhu kwanda ngokucaphuna ezinye izibikezelo zembuyiselo elungisiwe ku-equity (RoTE) eziseduze no-19%-20% ngo-2028 kanye nesilinganiso sokukhula kwemali engenayo ngesabelo esilinganiselwa ku-16% ngonyaka phakathi kuka-2025 no-2028, okusobala ukuthi kungaphezu kwesivumelwano semakethe. Isihluthulelo, ngokusho kwenkampani yaseBrithani, kuzoba ukubona ukuthi iSantander ingakwazi yini ukuhlanganisa i- Ukukhula okuqinile kwemali engenayo ngaphandle kokulahla isiyalo sezindleko futhi ayiwohlozi iphrofayili yayo yemali.
Ibhange laseSpain liphinde lihlolwe ngesu lalo lokusebenzisa iholo labanikazi bamasheyaUkuhlaziywa okuhlukahlukene kusikisela ukuthi, ngenxa yokukhiqizwa kwemali okunamandla kwemvelo kanye nesilinganiso se-CET1 esikhululekile, inhlangano ingabela izamba ezibalulekile kakhulu zokuthenga kabusha kwamasheya kanye nezinzuzo zemali eminyakeni ezayo, into ethinta ngqo ukubuyekezwa kwentengo okuqondiwe.
Okwamanje, ezinye izivumelwano ezibanzi ezihlanganiswe ngamapulatifomu afana ne-Reuters zibonisa ukufundwa okuqaphile ngezinye izikhathi, ngamanani ajwayelekile angaphansi kancane kwentengo yamasheya yamanje kanye namathuba amabi esikhathini esifushane, okubonisa lokho. Akukho mbono owodwa ngenani.Noma kunjalo, izinkampani eziningi zocwaningo zigcina izincomo ezinhle noma okungenani ezingathathi hlangothi, ezisekelwa umlando wamuva wemiphumela ethuthukisiwe kanye nokusetshenziswa kwemali ngendlela ehlelekile.
Okunye komkhakha wamabhange waseSpain: amathuba, amaphrimiyamu kanye nezingozi
Ngale kwe-BBVA ne-Santander, imephu ye Amanani aqondiwe amanye amabhange aseSpain khombisa a inhlanganisela yamathuba akhethiwe kanye nezexwayiso ezicacile mayelana nokuhlolwa okuqinile. Izinhlangano ezifana I-CaixaBank, i-Bankinter, i-Sabadell ne-Unicaja Zibonisa kahle izinga abahlaziyi abahlukanisa ngalo icala ngalinye namuhla.
CaixaBank Ivela emibikweni njenge-stock esekelwa amabhange amaningi okutshalwa kwezimali, yize kunezingqinamba ezithile. I-Bank of America iyibheka “njengompetha wezwe” ngenxa yayo isabelo semakethe kumadiphozithi kanye nomkhawulo wokuthuthukisa imali engenayo evela ezinkokhelweni kanye nezinye izinto ezingahlobene nenzalofuthi isekela lowo mbono ngentengo eqondiwe engu-€12 kanye nesincomo se-Buy. Kodwa-ke, uMorgan Stanley uthatha indlela eqaphile kakhulu, enentengo eqondiwe engaba ngu-€10,90 kanye nekhono elilinganiselwe kakhulu lokunyuka, okubonisa ukuthi ingxenye ebalulekile yomlando wokwanda kwesitoko kungenzeka ukuthi intengo yayo isivele ifakiwe.
Endabeni I-BankinterImibiko iqokomisa iphrofayili yebhizinisi esezingeni eliphezulu, enezinkokhelo ezikhulayo kanye namabhizinisi omshwalense, kodwa ixwayisa ngezinto eziningana izivunguvunguIzindleko zediphozithi, isakhiwo sezimali, kanye nokuguquka kwephothifoliyo ye-ALCO, phakathi kwezinye izici, yizinto ezicatshangelwayo. I-Bank of America ikhuluma ngokusobala ngokusebenza okungaphansi, ngentengo eqondiwe esho ukwehla okungenzeka, kanti uMorgan Stanley ubeka intengo yakhe yomqondo ngqo lapho imakethe ikhona, eqinisa umqondo wokuthi i-premium yokulinganisa ngaphezu kwamanye amabhange okuthengisa Kungancipha ngokuhamba kwesikhathi.
Banco SabadellOkwamanje, kubonakala sengathi inamandla okukhuphuka aphakathi nendawo. I-Bank of America ibeka amanani aqondiwe aphakamisa imbuyiselo engaba ngu-9% kanye nesincomo esingathathi hlangothi, uma ubheka ukuthi ingxenye yesikhalo senhlangano isekukhuleni kwayo. isivuno esikhulu senzuzo kunokuba kube nokubuyekezwa kabusha kwemakethe yamasheya amakhulu ngemva kwemicimbi yamuva yezinkampani.
Ekugcineni, Unicaja Bank Cishe yilokhu lapho umehluko phakathi kwezinkampani ubonakala khona kakhulu. Ngenkathi iBhange laseMelika libona ithuba lokuthuthuka entengo eqondiwe (kufika ku-€3,10) futhi ligqamisa ukukhetha okuhlobene nemali yayo eyengeziweUMorgan Stanley uxwayisa ngengozi yokulungisa engaba khona uma imakethe inquma ukulungisa amanani abe amazinga aqaphile. Lokhu kungafani kubonisa ukuthi, naphezu kokuba ngesinye sezitoko ezisebenza kahle kakhulu ngonyaka odlule, akubona bonke abahlaziyi abavumelanayo ukuthi amandla engeziwe okukhulisa inzuzo adlula izingozi.
Sekukonke, isithombe esivela kule mibiko singesinye sezindawo zamabhange zaseSpain ezisesimweni esihle, kodwa amanani akhethekile akhula ngokuya ngokuya ngokuyaKuqhelelene kakhulu nokwenyuka kwentengo okungakhethi kwesikhathi esidlule. Kubatshalizimali, lokhu kusho ukuthi akusanele ukuthenga lo mkhakha njengowodwa; kunalokho, kuyadingeka ukuhlaziya ngokujulile isimo sebhizinisi ngalinye, umjikelezo walo wenzuzo, kanye nenqubomgomo yalo yezimali.
Ngenxa yazo zonke lezi zivivinyo, isimo samabhange aseSpain sibonakala siyindawo lapho amabhange ane- Ezinye zinamandla amakhulu okuthuthukisa, ezinye zinamandla amancane kakhulu okuthuthukisa, kanti ezinye zinobungozi obucacile bokulungiswa. Uma imiphumela ingahlangabezani nokulindelwe, amanani aqondiwe abekwe yizinkampani ezinkulu zamazwe ngamazwe asebenza njengohlobo lwekhampasi: awabonisi indlela okuwukuphela kwayo engenzeka, kodwa ayasiza ekutholeni ukuthi imakethe okwamanje ibona kuphi ibhalansi phakathi kokukhanga kanye nengozi kulelo nalelo gama elihamba phambili embonini.