Iyini Imodeli Yentengo Yempahla Eyinhloko (CAPM)?

I-Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ichaza ubudlelwano phakathi kwengcuphe ehleliwe, noma izingozi ezivamile zokutshala izimali, kanye nembuyiselo elindelekile ezimpahleni, ikakhulukazi amasheya. I-CAPM yathuthukiswa njengendlela yokulinganisa le ngozi ehlelekile. Ake sibone ukuthi iyini i-CAPM, ibalwa kanjani nokuthi yiziphi izici okufanele sizicabangele lapho siyisebenzisa.

Iyini Imodeli Yentengo Yempahla Eyinhloko (CAPM)?

I-Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) ichaza ubudlelwano phakathi kwengcuphe ehleliwe, noma izingozi ezivamile zokutshalwa kwezimali, kanye nembuyiselo elindelekile ezimpahleni, ikakhulukazi amasheya. Lihunyushwe ngesiSpanish lisho ukuthi imodeli yentengo yempahla enkulu. Kuyimodeli yezezimali ukuthi isungula ubudlelwano bomugqa phakathi kwembuyiselo edingekayo ekutshalweni kwezimali kanye nobungozi. Imodeli isuselwe ebuhlotsheni obuphakathi i-beta yempahla, izinga elingenabungozi (imvamisa isilinganiso sebhondi) kanye ne i-premium yengozi ye-equity, noma ukubuyiselwa kwemakethe okulindelekile kususe izinga lokungenabungozi. I-CAPM yathuthukiswa njengendlela yoku ukukala le ngozi ehlelekile. Isetshenziswa kabanzi kwezezimali amanani ezibambiso eziyingozi y khiqiza imbuyiselo elindelekile ezimpahleni, uma kubhekwa ubungozi balezo zimpahla kanye nezindleko zemali.

Ibalwa kanjani i-CAPM?

Inhloso yefomula ye-CAPM ithi ukuhlola ukuthi isitoko sinevelu efanelekile yini uma ubungozi baso kanye nenani lesikhathi semali kuqhathaniswa nembuyiselo yaso elindelekile. Ngamanye amazwi, ngokwazi ingxenye ngayinye ye-CAPM, kungenzeka ukulinganisa ukuthi intengo yamanje yesitoko iyahambisana yini nenzuzo yayo engenzeka. I-beta coefficient ye-investimenti isilinganiso se bungakanani ubungozi ukutshalwa kwezimali okuzongeza kwiphothifoliyo efana nemakethe. Uma isitoko siyingozi kunemakethe, sizoba ne- i-beta enkulu kuneyodwa. Uma isitoko sine a beta ngaphansi kokukodwa, ifomula ithatha ngokuthi izonciphisa ubungozi bephothifoliyo. I I-beta yesibambiso iphindaphindwa ngeprimiyamu yengozi yemakethe, okuyimbuyiselo yemakethe elindelwe ngaphezu kwezinga elingenabungozi. I izinga elingenabungozi liyengezwa emkhiqizweni we-beta yesibambiso y iprimiyamu yengozi yemakethe. Umphumela kufanele unikeze umtshali-zimali i inzuzo edingekayo noma izinga lesaphulelo ongayisebenzisa ukuze uthole inani lempahla. Ifomula yokubala ukubuyiselwa okulindelekile kwempahla, uma kubhekwa ubungozi bayo, yile elandelayo:

 

Isibonelo sokusebenzisa i-CAPM

Isibonelo, ake sicabange ukuthi sicabangela ukutshala imali esitokweni senani namuhla elingu-$100/isabelo esikhokha izabelo zonyaka ka-3%. Ake sithi lesi sitoko sine-beta yemakethe engu-1,3, okusho ukuthi iguquguquka kakhulu kunephothifoliyo yemakethe ebanzi (okungukuthi, i-S&P 500 Index). Masiphinde sicabange ukuthi izinga elingenabungozi ngu-3% futhi silindele ukuthi imakethe ithokozele u-8% ngonyaka. Imbuyiselo elindelekile esitokweni ngokwefomula ye-CAPM ingu-9,5%:

Inzuzo elindelekile yefomula ye-CAPM isetshenziselwa isaphulelo sezabelo ezilindelekile kanye nokwazisa kwekhephithali yesitoko esikhathini esilindelekile sokubamba. Uma inani elehlisiwe lalokho kuhamba nokugeleza kwemali kwesikhathi esizayo ilingana namadola ayi-100, ifomula ye-CAPM ibonisa ukuthi isenzo inevelu efanelekile maqondana nengozi.

Izinkinga ngeCAPM

Ohlakeni olujwayelekile, singathola izici ezimbili eziyinhloko ezingadala izinkinga lapho silinganisa amasheya: 

Ukuqagela okungelona iqiniso:

Kuye kwaboniswa ukuthi imibono ehlukahlukene lapho ifomula ye-CAPM isekelwe khona ayihambisani neqiniso. Ithiyori yezezimali yesimanje isekelwe emicabangweni emibili:

• Izimakethe zamasheya ukuncintisana kakhulu futhi ngempumelelo, okungukuthi, ulwazi olufanele mayelana nezinkampani isabalalisa futhi imunce ngokushesha nasemhlabeni jikelele. Lezi zimakethe zigcwele Abatshalizimali abahluzekile engozini, Bafunani wandise imbuyiselo egculisayo ekutshaleni kwakho.
• Ukufakwa kwe-beta kufomula kusho lokho Ingozi ingakalwa ngokuntengantenga kwenani lesitoko. Nokho, ukunyakaza kwentengo kuzo zombili izinkomba akuyona ingozi ngokulinganayo. Isikhathi sokubheka emuva Ukunquma ukuguquguquka kwesitoko akuyona indinganiso ngoba ukubuyiselwa kwesitoko (kanye nengozi) akusatshalaliswa ngokujwayelekile.

Isilinganiso seprimiyamu yobungozi:

Iphothifoliyo yemakethe yayisetshenziselwa ukuthola iprimiyamu yengozi yemakethe Kuyivelu yetiyori kuphela futhi akuyona impahla engathengwa noma itshalwe kuyo. njengenye indlela yamasheya. Isikhathi esiningi, abatshalizimali basebenzisa inkomba enkulu yesitoko, njenge-S&P 500, ukuze ibambe iqhaza emakethe, okuyisiqhathaniso esingaphelele. Ukugxekwa okuphawuleka kakhulu kweCAPM yi ukucabanga ukuthi ukungena kwemali kwesikhathi esizayo kungalinganiselwa kunqubo yokwehlisa. Uma umtshali-zimali ekwazi ukulinganisa inzuzo yesikhathi esizayo yesitoko ngezinga eliphezulu lokunemba, i-CAPM ngeke idingeke.