Ukuqala kwalo nyaka kulethe impahla entsha yezezimali phambili ezimakethe: uwoyela. Abatshalizimali baphendukela ekunakeni kwabo kule mpahla. Ukungezwani kwezepolitiki e-Iran , ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa yiNhlangano Yamazwe Athumela Uphethiloli (i-OPEC), kanye nokwehla kwempahla e-US kuqhuba amanani kawoyela phezulu kakhulu ekushintshisaneni kwamazwe ngamazwe. Kodwa-ke, umbuzo okuwukuphela kwawo osasele: ingabe mhlawumbe sekwephuze kakhulu ukuthatha izikhundla kule mpahla ebalulekile?
Akungabazeki ukuthi uwoyela ongahluziwe ukhuphuke kakhulu, wafinyelela emananini okokugcina abonwa ngo-2014. Ngemva kwalokhu kunyuka, ukwehla okukhulu kwentengo kwenzeka, kwaze kwaletha cishe u-$25 ngebhareli . Umbono wawungemuhle kakhulu ngenxa yezimo zamanje zemakethe ezithinta le mpahla ebalulekile yezezimali. Kodwa-ke, kubonakala sengathi okubi kakhulu sekuphelile, yize ngokuqinisekile kubangele ukwesaba okukhulu kubatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi ababetshale imali kumafutha ngemikhiqizo ehlukahlukene yezezimali.
Ngemva kokushaqeka kweminyaka edlule, intengo yebhareli kawoyela okwamanje icishe ibe ngu- $65 . Uma leli zinga liqhubeka, lingaholela emananini aphezulu nakakhulu esikhathini esizayo. Kungenzeka ukuthi lingafinyelela ku-$70 noma ngisho no-$80 esikhathini esifushane kuya kwesesikhathini esiphakathi. Lokhu kungamelela ukukhuphuka okungenzeka cishe ngo-15% kubatshalizimali. Kunoma ikuphi, lokhu kungenye yezindlela okufanele zibhekwe eduze ezinyangeni ezizayo.
Amafutha ku-uptrend
Imakethe yesikhathi esizayo yale mpahla ebalulekile iwukubiza amanani ekukhuphukeni kwentengo okuzayo. Ngempela, inkontileka yesikhathi esizayo kaFebhuwari igcina ukuthambekela okukhuphukayo kwamasonto amuva nje, njengoba idlule isithiyo sengqondo sama-$60 ngomphongolo kawoyela ongahluziwe. Kodwa into ebaluleke kakhulu akusikho lokhu, kodwa iqiniso lokuthi izikhundla zokuthenga zidlula kakhulu izikhundla zokuthengisa. Lokhu kuyinto engazange yenzeke phakathi nesikhathi kusukela ngo-2014 kuya maphakathi no-2017. Kuyisibonakaliso esicacile esikhuthaza ukuthenga le mpahla yezezimali.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, elinye lamazinga abalulekile lingaphezu kancane kwama-$65. Eqinisweni, leli elinye lamazinga alo okumelana abaluleke kakhulu. Uma lidlula kuleli zinga, intengo ingakhuphuka kakhulu , iveze ithuba lokuthenga elicacile kakhulu, njengoba kunconywe abahlaziyi bezezimali abaningi. Ngakolunye uhlangothi, uma lihluleka ukunqoba lokhu kumelana okukhulu, kuyalulekwa ukuthi liqaphele, njengoba lingenza umbono wobuchwepheshe ube mubi kakhulu, okungenani esikhathini esifushane, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi yiziphi ezinye izinto eziyisisekelo eziphathelene nowoyela ongahluziwe.
Imiphumela yokwenyuka kwentengo
Isimo esifana naleso esichaziwe sidala amathemba amakhulu phakathi kwabatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi, okuyinto eqondakalayo kubatshalizimali ngokubanzi. Kulokhu, i-Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) muva nje ibonise ukuthi ukwenyuka kwesikhathi eside kwamanani kawoyela kuzokhuthaza ukwanda komkhiqizo e-United States . Ngakho-ke, lokhu kungenye into okuzodinga ukucatshangelwa kule makethe yezezimali esikhathini esizayo. Ngokufanayo, i-EIA (US Energy Information Administration) imemezele ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kwale mpahla ebalulekile kuzodlula imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-10 ngosuku ngenyanga ezayo futhi kungaqhubeka nokwenyuka ngo-2019.
Esinye isici esibangela ukwenyuka kwentengo kawoyela yisimo samanje e-Iran. Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi leli lizwe elikhulu lamaSulumane lingumkhiqizi kawoyela wesithathu ngobukhulu ku-OPEC. Yingakho kubalulekile lokho okwenzekayo lapho kulezi zinsuku. Kumelwe kunakwe kakhulu imibhikisho eRiphabhulikhi yamaSulumane ngemuva kokufa kwabantu abangaba ngu-20. Lesi senzakalo singaba nomthelela ekukhuleni okuqhubekayo kwentengo kawoyela ongahluziwe ezinsukwini ngisho namasonto azayo.
Sika ekukhiqizeni uwoyela
Ngokuqinisekile, esinye isici esithonya inani lale mpahla yezezimali ukunciphisa ukukhiqizwa. Isinqumo se-United States, kanye neRussia kanye namanye amazwe athumela uwoyela ngaphandle, sinciphisa ukusatshalaliswa ngokweqile . Futhi lokhu kuhunyushwa kanjani kube ngamagama asebenzayo? Kalula nje, ngokulawula okukhulu intengo yalolu tshalomali olukhethekile kakhulu. Lesi ngesinye sezici abadlali bezezimali abahlukahlukene abaziqapha eduze, futhi sizothinta kakhulu intengo ingxenye enkulu yonyaka, ngisho nangaphezu kwezinye izinto zobuchwepheshe ezicatshangelwayo.
Ngenxa yalezi zizathu, akumangazi ukuthi inani elikhulu labahlaziyi bezimakethe zezimali likholelwa ukuthi kunengozi enkulu yokuthi lesi simo sokukhula kwezomnotho sibonakale. Kodwa-ke, kuzoba abatshalizimali abancane nabaphakathi abazozuza kulesi simo esiyingqayizivele esilethwe unyaka omusha, kanye nethuba lokwanda okukhulu esikhathini esizayo. Lokhu kunenzuzo kakhulu kunezinye izinhlobo zokutshalwa kwezimali, okuhlanganisa ukuthenga nokuthengisa amasheya esitokweni.
Ukulungiswa kwamanani okungenzeka
Kodwa-ke, kunengozi enkulu yokuthi intengo kawoyela ingazilungisa ezimisweni zokuhweba ezizayo. Kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi lo mkhakha okwamanje ushisa ngokweqile, njengoba ukhuphuke cishe ngo-15% ngenyanga edlule. Lokhu kulungiswa kwentengo kungenzeka nganoma yisiphi isikhathi, ngaphandle kokushintsha ngempela umkhuba oyisisekelo walesi sakhiwo sezimali. Kodwa kuyinto okuzodingeka siphile nayo phakathi nekota yokuqala yonyaka. Yingozi yokuqala okuzodingeka ubhekane nayo kulo nyaka.
Lokho intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe engabonakali kukuthinta ukuthunyelwa kwamanye amazwe , okuhlala kumazinga afanayo. Lesi yisici abatshalizimali abaningi abancane nabaphakathi abasiqaphayo lapho benquma ukuthi bazovula noma bavale izikhundla kulokhu kutshalwa kwezimali. Nokho, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuthi intengo kawoyela ongahluziwe incike ezintweni eziningi kakhulu kunalokho ongase ukucabange ekuqaleni. Ngenxa yalesi sizathu, akumangazi ukuthi noma yiluphi ushintsho lwendlela lungenzeka ngesikhathi esingalindelekile, kuze kube seqophelweni lokukushiya udidekile ngokuphelele, njengoba kwenzeka ngo-2014, lapho ingxenye enkulu yemakethe yamasheya ibambeke kule mpahla yezezimali.
I-Repsol ngaphezulu kwama-euro angama-15
Omunye wabameleli abaphambili balo mkhakha ezimakethe zaseSpain yiRepsol. Ingenye yezitoko ezishisa kakhulu ohlwini olukhethiwe lwamasheya aseSpain. Akumangazi ukuthi uhlelo lwayo oluhlelekile lwalo nyaka lulindele intengo kawoyela engu- €50 ngesabelo ngasinye . Ngakho-ke, uma intengo ikhuphuka, kungenzeka ukuthi ingafinyelela amazinga okuhweba aphezulu kakhulu kunamanje. Lokhu kungaba elinye lamathuba amakhulu ebhizinisi onyaka. Kangangoba abahlaziyi bezezimali abaningana sebevele bakholelwa ukuthi iRepsol ingaba ngumdlali ovelele wonyaka ngokungangabazeki.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, inkampani kawoyela yaseSpain ingenye yezinkampani ezisabalalisa enye yezabelo ezinkulu kakhulu emakethe yamasheya kazwelonke. Njengoba inenzuzo engaba ngu-7% , ekhokhwa ngezitolimende ezimbili zonyaka, isebenza njengendlela yokunciphisa ukulahlekelwa okungenzeka entengo yayo yamasheya. Lokhu kukuvumela ukuthi wakhe iphothifoliyo engenayo egxilile emakethe yamasheya, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi izimo zemakethe zinjani. Ngempela, uzothola imali eningi ngezabelo kunemikhiqizo yasebhange yendabuko, njengediphozithi yesikhathi esigxilile, amanothi asebhange, noma ngisho nama-akhawunti okonga aphezulu.
Ezinye izinketho zokutshala imali
Kodwa-ke, ngale kwe-Repsol, azikho ezinye izinketho kulo mkhakha emakethe yamasheya yaseSpain. Ubungeke ube nakukhetha ngaphandle kokubheka kwezinye izimakethe zomhlaba wonke ukuze wanelise lesi sidingo esithile ekutshalweni kwezimali zakho. Ikakhulukazi, imakethe yamasheya yase-US , lapho lezi zinhlobo zezinkampani ezixhumene nomkhakha kawoyela zigxile kakhulu khona. Lapho, ungakhetha inkampani efanelana kahle nephrofayili yakho njengomtshalizimali omncane noma ophakathi nendawo—into okunzima kakhulu ukuyifeza emakethe yamasheya yaseSpain.
Kunoma ikuphi, zonke ziyizinkampani lapho izikhundla zomthengi zibekwa ngokusobala kubathengisi. Okungenani esikhathini esifushane kuze kube manje kulo nyaka. Kepha kusasele izinyanga eziyishumi nanye ukuthi ziveze ubuqiniso bale nkambiso ephezulu lapho umkhakha kawoyela udlula khona.