Ray Dalio, usozigidigidi umsunguli we- hedge fund enkulu kunazo zonke emhlabeni, iyaziwa ngezinto eziningi, kodwa ngaphezu kwakho konke "isikhombi se-bubble", umsebenzi wayo wobuciko. Kusekelwe emibuzweni eyisithupha esiza ukuthola ukuthi sisesimweni senani eliphezulu ngokungafanele, futhi kuzwakale kunomsindo ezitokweni zase-US ngasekuqaleni konyaka odlule. Ngakho-ke ake sihlole futhi futhi sibone ukuthi lelo bhamuza lisaphelele yini...
Yimiphi imibuzo eyisithupha kaRay Dalio?❓
1) Aphakeme kangakanani amanani entengo amasheya uma kuqhathaniswa nezilinganiso zokulinganisa eziyisisekelo ezivamile njenge-P/E noma izinzuzo ngesheya ngalinye?
Njengamanje, lesi silinganiso cishe siyisilinganiso. Ngemuva kokwehla kwakamuva kwezitoko zase-US, okwamanje zikusilinganiso esingu-50% phakathi neminyaka eyi-110 edlule.
2) Ingabe izintengo zehlisa izimo ezingalawuleki? ️
Lokhu kuhilela ukuhlola amazinga okukhula kwenzuzo yebhizinisi edingekayo ukuze izitoko zisebenze kahle kakhulu kunamabhondi. Lesi silinganiso sinyukile eminyakeni emibili edlule njengoba ukuvunwa kwebhondi kukhulile, okukhuphula isithiyo sembuyiselo yesitoko futhi manje kuku-60% ezitokisini zase-U.S. Okusho ukuthi, ukukhula kweholo elinesaphulelo esitokweni kuphezulu kancane, futhi lokhu kuphawuleka nakakhulu emkhakheni wesofthiwe wase-US.
3) Bangaki abatshalizimali abasha abangena emakethe muva nje?
Izikhukhula zabasanda kungena, ikakhulukazi abatshalizimali abancane abakhangwa amanani akhuphuka ngokushesha, ngokuvamile zivula amehlo. Lesi silinganiso senyuke sangaphezulu kwama-90% ngo-2020 ngemuva kokutheleka kwabatshalizimali abathengisa esitokweni esinezinga eliphezulu. Kepha muva nje, umsebenzi wokuthengisa ezimakethe uhlehlele kuzilinganiso zangaphambi kwe-Covid.
4) Sekukonke, muhle kangakanani umuzwa womtshalizimali?
Uma unethemba elikhulu, abatshalizimali abaningi kungenzeka ukuthi sebetshale yonke into abanayo, okusho ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi bangabathengisi kunabathengi. Akunjalo manje. Imizwa emakethe imbi kakhulu, ifinyelela amazinga esiwabonile phakathi nokujula kokuwa kwebhamuza le-dotcom.
5) Ingabe ukutshalwa kwezimali kuxhaswa ngemali ephezulu?
Abathengi abathembela kakhulu kumajini (imali ebolekiwe) noma imikhiqizo enenzuzo efana nezinketho basengozini enkulu yokuthengiswa okuphoqelekile ekuweni. Njengoba izinto zimi, imakethe yaseMelika yenza kahle isiyonke, ngalesi silinganiso sihlezi ku-50%.
6) Ingabe izinkampani zitshala imali ekusaseni lazo? -
Ukusetshenziswa kwebhizinisi ezintweni ezifana nemishini namafekthri kungadalula ukuthi ithemba lemakethe yamasheya liwuthelelekile yini umnotho wangempela, okudala okulindelwe okungase kube ngokoqobo (futhi kuyabiza) ekukhuleni kwesidingo. Le nkomba okwamanje iku-40%, noma ngaphansi kancane kwe-avareji, mhlawumbe ithintwa yizinkinga eziqhubekayo ze-supply chain.
Ngakho-ke, sibonisani inkomba yebhamuza?
Ishadi elingezansi libonisa isilinganiso sebhamuza esiyinhlanganisela esisetshenziswe ezitokweni zase-US phakathi neminyaka engu-110 edlule futhi sivezwa njengamaphesenti. Kafushane nje, lapho ukufundwa kuphezulu, kulapho inkomba isho ibhamuza lemakethe yamasheya. Izitoko zase-US okwamanje zehle ngo-40%. Lokho kuphakamisa ukuthi asisekho kubhamuza.
Inkomba yebhamuza lesitoko sase-US ikumaphesenti angama-40. Umthombo: Bridgewater Associates
Manje njengoba ibhamuza seliqhumile, ingabe sekuyisikhathi sokubuyela phakathi?
Ngaphandle kosizo lwebhola lekristalu, kunzima ukunikeza impendulo eqondile kulo mbuzo, kodwa impendulo yesikhashana ingaba: CHA. Ake sibone... nakuba ukuguqulwa kwemakethe kube okubalulekile, isaphulelo ekukhuleni kweholo lesikhathi esizayo sisaphezulu ngandlela thize uma siqhathaniswa nomlando, ikakhulukazi uma ukwehla komnotho kukholakala ukuthi kuyeza. Ukwengeza, izitoko zase-US zisabukeka zixazululwe ngokweqisa ngezinyathelo ezithile.
Umlando usikisela ukuthi lapho ukuqhuma sekuqalile, amabhamuza avame ukulungisa ngokweqile kuya kokwehla—okungukuthi, ukuthengisa ngaphezu kwalokho okungasikiselwa okuyisisekelo—kunokuba avele athenge amanani “avamile” engeziwe. Futhi lokhu kulungiswa ngokweqile kungaba inqubo ende ngoba amabhamuza ngokuvamile athatha isikhashana ukuphumula ngokugcwele. Ngaphambilini, iminyaka emibili endabeni yebhamuza lika-1929 kanye nonyaka owodwa endabeni yebhamuza le-dotcom ngasekupheleni kwawo-90. Beka enye indlela, iqiniso lokuthi izitoko azisekho ekupheleni kwebhamuza akusho ukuthi sezikhona. ukuthenga okuhle manje. Umlando uphakamisa ukuthi kuningi okungahambi kahle okuzayo. Umlando awuziphindi, kodwa uvamise ukwenza imilolozelo... Mark Twain