Kuvamile ukuthi abathengi abasemkhakheni wezindlu namaShayina bakhokhe kuqala isakhiwo esingakakhiwa, futhi le nqubo isebenze kahle esikhathini esidlule. Kodwa izinyathelo ezinqala zikahulumeni zakamuva ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya ezindlu zaseShayina Bakhubaze ukwakhiwa ezweni lonke. Lokhu kuphoqe abathenga izindlu ukuthi badube ukukhokhelwa kwezindlu kuze kube babona umnyakazo futhi. Futhi lokho kungagcina kubangele ikhanda kukho konke ukutshala imali kwesitoko saseChina…
Kungani lokhu kuduba kuyingozi kangaka?
Bazolimaza injini enkulu yomnotho waseShayina️
Ukutshalwa kwezimali ezitokisini zezindlu zaseShayina (kusuka ekwakhiweni kwezakhiwo kuya ezinsizakalweni zezindlu ezithengiswayo) kulinganiselwa ukuthi kuzobandakanya ingxenye yesine yomkhiqizo wezomnotho waseChina. Futhi ngokusho I-Pantheon Macroeconomics, phakathi kuka-30 no-40% wemali mboleko yasebhange ivezwa emkhakheni wezindlu. Futhi ukudayiswa komhlaba, okumelela phakathi kuka-30 no-40% wemali engenayo yohulumeni basekhaya. Ngakho-ke noma yini ephazamisa ngokuqondile ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya ezindlu zaseShayina izoba nomthelela omkhulu emnothweni wezwe lilonke.
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya ezindlu zaseShayina kuye kwehla isikhathi esingaphezu konyaka. Umthombo: I-China National Bureau of Statistics.
Bazolimaza enye injini enkulu yomnotho waseShayina️
Ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya omkhakha wamabhange yikona okulandelayo okungehluleki kakhulu kule saga. Izikweletu zayo ezilinganiselwa ku-1,7 trillion yuan (cishe amaRandi ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezingu-250.000) ezincwadini zayo zingathinteka ngenxa yokuduba. Njengoba isondela kancane, i-China Construction Bank Corp. (elinye lamabhange amakhulu emhlabeni) ihlanganisa ngaphezu kuka-20% wesamba sempahla yayo. Ukukhathazeka mayelana nokuwohloka kwezimali mboleko kubangele Inkomba ye-Hang Seng Mainland eya Amabhange yehle ngo-8%. evikini eledlule, okungenzeka ukuthi ukwehla kube kukhulu uma ukuduba kuthola amandla.
Ingaphezulu kuka-70% ingcebo yasendlini yaseShayina ixhumene nokutshalwa kwezimali emkhakheni wezezindlu. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ukwehla okukhulu kwezintengo zezakhiwo kungase kube nomthelela omkhulu ekusetshenzisweni kwabathengi. Ukwehla okungase kube khona kokuzethemba kwabathengi ngesikhathi ukukhula kwehla kancane emhlabeni jikelele kanye nokwehla kwamandla emali kukhombisa ukuthi azikho izimpawu zokwehla kungase kudale izinkinga ezinkulu emnothweni waseShayina.
Kuzolimaza ukutshalwa kwezimali kumasheya aseShayina
Ukutshala imali kumasheya aseShayina kubukeke kukhanga kakhulu kuneminye iminotho emikhulu kule minyaka emibili edlule. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi umnotho wezwe usukhule ngokushesha futhi awuzange ubhekane nokwehla kwamandla emali okweqile. Ngenxa yalokho, abatshalizimali base-US kanye ne-EMEA bathele imali eningi ku-ETF ye-Chinese equity kunanoma yisiphi isikhathi kule minyaka eyishumi edlule.
Ukugeleza kwanyanga zonke kuma-ETF e-Chinese equity. Umthombo: Blackrock
Kodwa uma ukuduba kunomthelela emnothweni obanzi futhi abatshalizimali banqume ukushiya imakethe yamasheya yezwe, ukutshalwa kwezimali kwethu esitokweni saseShayina kungase kunciphe.
Kuzolimaza ukuzethemba kwabatshalizimali
Iningi lamabhondi angenamsebenzi eChina akhishwa abathuthukisi bezindlu, futhi abatshalizimali bebewathengisa ngobuningi. Lokhu sekusho ukuthi isilinganiso sabo senzuzo sesikhule safinyelela ku-26%, okwenza kubize kakhulu ezinkampanini ezithengisa izindlu ukuthi ziphinde zithole imali eziyidingayo ukuze ziqhubeke nokusebenza. Lokhu kuduba kuzokwenza abatshalizimali bathembele kubo kancane, okungenza inzuzo kanye nobunzima bokubuyisela imali bukhule nakakhulu.
Inzuzo yamabhondi aseShayina unyaka owodwa ngaphambili. Umthombo: Ukuhweba Economics
Akukhona nje nge-junk bond: Abatshalizimali bathengisa amabhondi ngisho nezinkampani zokwakha ezisezingeni lokutshala imali, okwenza kube nzima kubo ukuthola imali futhi kuqinise nezinkinga zabo ze-liquidity. Lokhu kwenza ukutshala imali esitokweni kulo mkhakha futhi, ngokwengeza, umnotho waseShayina ube yingozi kakhulu.
Kufanele ngethuke?
Hhayi okwamanje. Eqinisweni, kunezizathu ezithile zokuba nethemba:(i) Uhulumeni wase-China unesisusa sokuthatha isinyathelo ngokushesha. Kulindeleke ukuthi uXi Jinping athathe ihlandla lesithathu ephethe, okusho ukuthi uhulumeni wakhe uzokwenza konke okusemandleni ukunqanda ukuduba ukuthi kudale umonakalo omkhulu. Futhi unezinketho eziningi zokwenza kanjalo. Kusukela ekuvumeleni abathengi bezindlu ukuthi babambezele ukukhokha imali yezindlu zabo kuya ekuvumeleni ohulumeni basekhaya ukuthi bathenge amaphrojekthi kubathuthukisi. Noma ngabe yisiphi isixazululo esikhethiwe, umnotho waseChina wokuya phezulu ukuya phansi uvumela izinqumo ukuthi zenziwe futhi zisetshenziswe ngokushesha.
Ukutshala izimali kumasheya okuthengisa izindlu kuye kwadalula umnotho waseShayina kulokhu kuwa okungenzeka. Umthombo: Umbono weBloomberg
(ii) Abathengi baseShayina babonakala benza kahle. Yize izikweletu zasendlini zaseShayina njengephesenti lomnotho wezwe zafinyelela ku-62% ngo-2021, zisephansi kakhulu kunama-78% nama-86% e-United States nase-United Kingdom, ngokulandelana. Ngakho-ke nakuba lokhu kuduba kungase kube nomthelela ekusetshenzisweni kwemali, ukutshala izimali kumasheya ezindlu zaseShayina kusesimweni esiqinile okufanele sisebenzele umnotho.
Isikweletu somphakathi saseChina besilokhu sikhula ngokuqhubekayo unyaka nonyaka. Umthombo: Bloomberg
(iii) Mancane amathuba okuthi lesi kuzoba yisimo esifana naleso Sengozi Ka-2008. Uma le nkinga iba yimbi, kungenzeka ukuthi iphelele ezweni uqobo. Phela, imali ebolekiwe yamabhange aseShayina kubathuthukisi bezindlu bendawo ayidayiseki noma ivikeleke njengaleyo yamabhange aseMelika ngo-2008. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukuqondisa okuqinile kukahulumeni kwenze ukuba abatshalizimali bakwamanye amazwe babambe iqhaza ekutshalweni kwezimali ezimakethe zezindlu zaseShayina kwehliswe.
Singaluvikela kanjani utshalomali lwethu esitokweni?️
Akunasiqiniseko sokuthi lokhu kuduba kuzogcina kuphazamise kakhulu ukukhula komnotho waseShayina, kodwa futhi akuqiniseki ukuthi ngeke. Ngakho-ke kuhle kakhulu ukuqhela ekutshaleni imali ezitokweni ezivezwe kakhulu emnothweni waseShayina. Izinkampani eziwubukhazikhazi kanye nabakhiqizi bezimoto benza ingxenye enkulu yemali yabo engenayo ezweni. Futhi singakhetha kakhulu mayelana nokuchayeka kwethu ezintweni ezingavuthiwe. Izimpahla zivame ukubonwa njengothango oluhle lokumelana nokwehla kwamandla emali, kodwa ukwehla kwemboni yezokwakha yaseShayina kungase kuthuntubeze ukukhanya kwempahla efana nensimbi nensimbi nensimbi yethusi. Sesikushilo lokho, izinsimbi eziyigugu njengegolide nesiliva kufanele ziqine.
Amazwe ahweba kwamanye amazwe afana ne-Australia, iBrazil, i-Argentina kanye neNingizimu Afrika kungenzeka abone ubuthakathaka emalini yawo uma ukukhula komnotho waseChina kuqala ukwehla. Iminotho yase-Asia njengeJapan, iSouth Korea, iTaiwan, iSingapore kanye neVietnam nayo incike emnothweni waseShayina, futhi izimakethe zawo zamasheya kungenzeka zingenzi kahle ezase-United States naseNtshonalanga Yurophu.