Amathuba okutshala imali akhangayo esitokweni abe nzima ukuwathola ngenxa yesimo sezulu esigcwele ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukwesaba ukwehla kwamandla emali, kanye nezinga lenzalo eliphezulu. Kodwa hhayi uma unguWarren Buffett. Ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, usebenzise izigidigidi zamaRandi ukuthola cishe u-20% wesitoko se- Occidental Petroleum (OXY) . Lesi sinyathelo sisinika ithuba lokucabanga, ikakhulukazi ngokwazi ukuthi muva nje uthole imvume yokuthola u-50% wenkampani. Ngakho-ke ake silungise noma yikuphi ukungabaza futhi sihlaziye ukuthi kungani i-"Oracle of Omaha" iyithanda kangaka le nkampani…
1. Inokuchayeka ku-US shale.️
I-Shale wuhlobo lwamaminerali okuthi, ngokuqhekeka kwetshe ngama-hydraulically, kuvumele ukuthi kukhishwe igesi yemvelo. Futhi uma kukhona into eyodwa okudingeka uyazi ngoBuffett, ukuthi "akasoze abheja ngokumelene ne-United States." Ukukhula kwe-hydraulic fracturing, okwaziwa kangcono ngokuthi i-fracking, kusukela ngo-2010 kwenze i-US shale yaba amandla okufanele ibalwe nawo. Iguqule isimo sezwe samandla kagesi futhi yaqinisekisa ukuzimela kwayo kwamandla. Ukukhiqizwa kukawoyela kwamanje e-US (imiphongolo eyizigidi eziyi-11,6 ngosuku) kungaphezu kokuphindwe kabili kwalokho okwakuyikho ngo-2008, lapho kwehla kule nkinga ngemuva kweminyaka engamashumi amane yokwehla. Iqiniso okumele ligqanyiswe ukuthi u-Occidental uthenge i-Anadarko ngo-2019, ongomunye wabakhiqizi abakhulu be-shale ePermian Basin, elawula kufikela ku-80% wokukhiqizwa kwayo kwe-hydrocarbon esekwe e-US.
Inqubo yokukhipha igesi ye-Shale. Umthombo: Thola.
2. Inzuzo enhle ngenxa yokwenyuka kwamanani kawoyela.
Ukutshala imali kuwoyela negesi kulula ukukuqonda, ngokunembile uhlobo lwebhizinisi oluthandwa nguBuffett. Lokho kungenxa yokuthi zimbili kuphela izinto eziyinhloko ezidala inzuzo, inani elikhiqizwayo kanye nenani likawoyela negesi. Lesi sakamuva sibaluleke kakhulu, ngoba sithonya okokuqala. Nakuba uguquko lwamandla seluqhubeka, ngeke luhlale iminyaka eminingi. Lokho kusho ukuthi sizoqhubeka sithembele kuwoyela negesi. Kugrafu elandelayo singabona ukukhula kwezindleko zemali yezinkampani zikawoyela, eziqhutshwa yi-ESG criteria. Lokhu kusho ukuthi abakhiqizi bakawoyela bakhuthazwa kuphela ukuthuthukisa amaphrojekthi amasha ngo-$90 umgqomo, uma kuqhathaniswa no-$57 umgqomo onezindleko eziphansi zemali, ukugcina ukunikezwa kukawoyela kunomkhawulo kanye nezintengo zikawoyela ziphakeme isikhathi eside.
Intengo kawoyela elinganayo ngezindleko ezinkulu ezihlukene.
3. Inendawo yokukhula ngenani eliphansi.
Iphuzu eliqine kakhulu lephothifoliyo ye-Occidental indawo yayo yomhlaba e-U.S. Inehektha eyizigidi ezingu-2,9 ePermian Basin, idiphozithi enkulu ye-shale engaphansi kweTexas neNew Mexico. I-Permian Basin inokuphila kwensiza ende kakhulu, kanye nalapho kulindeleke ukuthi ukukhula okuningi ekukhiqizweni kukawoyela wase-US kwenzeke. Ngokulandelayo, inezindleko zokukhiqiza eziphakeme kakhulu. eziphansi. Lokhu kuvumela umnotho wesilinganiso ukunciphisa izindleko, kube inzuzo enkulu yokuncintisana. I-Occidental ayiyona nje kuphela enye yabakhiqizi abakhulu bamafutha ePermian, njengoba sibona kugrafu elandelayo, futhi ingenye yenzuzo kakhulu.
I-Occidental inesilinganiso esingcono se-P/E kunezimbangi zayo. Umthombo: Simplywall.st.
4. Ukuphatha kahle inkampani.
UBuffett uqale ukutshala imali kumasheya e-Occidental Petroleum ekuqaleni kwalo nyaka wathi isikhulu esiphezulu sale nkampani siqhuba kahle inkampani. Ebhekise eqinisweni lokuthi wayebeka phambili inzuzo kunokukhiqiza. Okusho ukuthi, lapho izinga lenzalo liphansi kakhulu, izinkampani eziningi zasebenzisa imali enkulu ukuze zandise, empeleni ziphishekela ukukhula ngezindleko zenzuzo, kwalimala abatshalizimali. Kunalokho, ithimba labaphathi be-Occidental Petroleum ligxile ekukhiqizeni ukugeleza kwemali okuqinile nokuqhubekayo. Lokhu kuchaza ukuthi kungani ukukhiqizwa kwemali kuye kwaba namandla kangaka ezindaweni zakamuva. Ithimba labaphathi lithe linezinhloso ezintathu zokungena kwemali mahhala: ukunciphisa isikweletu salo, ukukhokha izabelo kanye nokuthenga amasheya. Njengoba izikweletu zizonke kulindeleke ukuthi zehliswe kakhulu ekupheleni kwalo nyaka, i-Oracle izozuza inzuzo enkulu ekutshalweni kwezimali eminyakeni emibili ezayo.
Isikweletu se-Occidental Petroleum kuya ku-equity kusuka ngo-2016 kuya ku-2022. Umthombo: Simplywall.st.
5. Ukugeleza kwemali okunempilo.
Ngisho nangaphezu kokukhula, ukukhuphuka kwemali ephumayo mahhala kuyimethrikhi ebalulekile lapho utshalwa isitoko. Lisitshela ukuthi yimalini esele inkampani ngemuva kokutshala imali ekusaseni layo. Ukukhuphuka kwemali yamahhala, kuba ngcono kithina, njengoba leyo mali ingasetshenziswa ezintweni eziningi. Isibonelo, ukuze ukhokhe isikweletu, uthenge, utshale kabusha enkampanini, noma usibuyisele kubanikazi bamasheya ngendlela yezinzuzo noma ngokuthenga amasheya. Njengoba amanani kawoyela emi manje, i-Occidental kulindeleke ukuthi ibe umshini okhiqiza ukheshi onenzuzo yamahhala yokuhamba kwemali efinyelela ku-14%. Lokhu kusho ukuthi ingawathenga kabusha wonke amasheya ayo esikhathini esingangeminyaka eyisikhombisa ngenani layo lamanje. Ngaphezu kwalokho, izabelo zayo ziyasimama kuze kufike enanini elingalindelekile lika-$40 umphongolo ngamunye, futhi inkampani isanda kwethula uhlelo lokubuyisela amasheya ayizigidi eziyizinkulungwane ezintathu zamaRandi, engathenga ngalo amasheya afika ku-3.000% emakethe ngonyaka olandelayo. .
Imali engenayo ye-Occidental Petroleum kusukela ngo-2007 kuya ku-2021. Umthombo: Occidental Petroleum.
6. Imajini eqinile yokuphepha.
Ukukhokhela isitoko ngokweqile akukhona lokho u-Buffett azokwenza. Uthenga kuphela uma ukholelwa ukuthi ukukhula kwenani elikhulu lesikhathi eside kungakhiqizwa. Indlela engcono kakhulu yokwazisa inkampani kawoyela negesi iwukuhlanganisa inani lengqikithi yempahla (NAV) yazo zonke izimpahla zayo. Sizothatha amanani entengo kawoyela negesi esikhathi eside esimeme esikhathini esizayo. Bese sehlisa isamba semali etholwe ukukhiqizwa esikhathini sokuphila kwempahla. Ishadi elingezansi elisekelwe kuzilinganiso ze-Goldman Sachs libonisa ukuthi i-Occidental ibaluleke kakhulu uma ukholelwa, njengoba iningi labahlaziyi likholelwa, ukuthi amanani entengo kawoyela wesikhathi eside azohlala ku-$60 umphongolo noma ngaphezulu isikhathi eside. Lokhu kungenxa yokuthi ukuchayeka okukhulu kwe-Occidental ekukhiqizeni uwoyela wase-US kusho ukuthi inokuchayeka okukhulu kakhulu kumanani kawoyela uma kuqhathaniswa nawo wonke umkhakha.
I-OXY inenani lempahla ngamanani ahlukene kawoyela.
Singalisebenzisa kanjani leli thuba lokutshalwa kwezimali kwesitoko?類
UBuffett unesamba esingu-$38.000 billion sokusebenzisana nomkhakha wezamandla kuphothifoliyo yakhe yamasheya nge- Chevron (CVX) kanye ne -Occidental (OXY) , okunikeza isibonakaliso esiqinile sesikhundla sakhe sesikhathi eside ngamanani kawoyela. Uma sabelana ngalo mbono futhi sibona ithemba mayelana namanani kawoyela, ikakhulukazi e-US shale, singatshala imali ngqo ku-Occidental Petroleum. Ngaphandle kwalokho, uma ukhetha ukushintshashintsha ukusebenzisana kwakho nomkhakha nge- iShares US Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ( IEO ), ungatshala futhi ku- iShares Global Energy ETF ( IXC ) ukuze uthole ukufana okubanzi emhlabeni jikelele.