I-yen yaseJapan ibhekane nolunye lwezinsuku zayo eziguquguqukayo kakhulu eminyakeni yamuva nje ngemuva kokuba iJapan ne-United States benze ukungenelela okuhlangene emakethe yokushintshaniswa kwemali yangaphandle ukuze kuncishiswe ukwehla kwenani lemali yaseJapan. Lo msebenzi, owenziwe ngoLwesihlanu, mhla zingama-31 kuNtulikazi, wawuyisenzo sokuqala esihlanganyelwe salolu hlobo kusukela ngo-1998 futhi wabangela ukunyakaza okukhulu kwesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwemali, esasuka kuma-yen angaphezu kuka-163 ngedola saya ngaphansi kwama-yen angu-158 emahoreni ambalwa.
Kodwa-ke, ukukhululeka kwaba okwesikhashana. Idola lasheshe labuya, futhi izinga lokushintshaniswa kwemali labuyela cishe kuma-yen ayi-160 , okugqamisa ubunzima iziphathimandla ezibhekene nabo ekuguquleni umkhuba oqhutshwa ukwehluka kwezinga lenzalo kanye nokugeleza kwemali emhlabeni jikelele. Lokhu kungenelela, nakuba kukhulu, akukaphumeleli ekuguquleni ingcindezi emalini yaseJapan, okuphakamisa imibuzo mayelana nokuthi i-yen ingabuya yini ngendlela eqhubekayo.
Ukungenelela okuhlanganisiwe
UNgqongqoshe Wezezimali waseJapan uSatsuki Katayama uqinisekise ngoMsombuluko ukuthi iziphathimandla zaseJapan nase-US zisebenzisane ngoLwesihlanu ukulwa nokunyakaza "okudlulele nokungahlelekile" kwe-yen. UKatayama uxwayise ngokuthi ngeke banqikaze ukuphinda lo msebenzi uma izimo zemakethe zidinga lokho, futhi waphawula ukuthi ukuxhumana neWashington kuyaqhubeka. UNobhala Wezezimali wase-US uScott Bessent uvumile lesi sinyathelo, ethi izenzo ezihlanganisiwe "zilwa nokunyakaza okungahlelekile" kwemali yaseJapan.
Lokhu kungenelela kulinganiselwa cishe kuma-yen ayizigidigidi ezingu-8,2, okulingana cishe namaRandi ayizigidigidi ezingu-53.000, ngokusekelwe ekubalweni okuthathwe ekunyakazweni kwemali kweBhange LaseJapan. Lona umsebenzi omkhulu wokuthenga ama-yen ngosuku olulodwa kusukela ngo-2023 , yize uMnyango Wezezimali ungakakhiphi inani elisemthethweni. Ubukhulu bomsebenzi bubonisa ukuzimisela kweTokyo ukuvikela imali yayo, kodwa futhi nokuphuthuma kwesimo lapho ama-yen ayefinyelele khona ezingeni eliphansi elingakaze libonwe eminyakeni engamashumi amane.
Ukusabela kanye nezindlela zokusekela
Esinye sezici eziphawuleka kakhulu zalokhu kungenelela kwaba ukusetshenziswa kwe-Federal Reserve's Foreign Monetary Authority Repurchase Facility (FIMA). Le ndlela ivumela amabhange amakhulu ukuthi athole i-dollar liquidity ngaphandle kokuthengisa izibopho zawo ze-U.S. Treasury , ngaleyo ndlela kugwenywe ingcindezi eyengeziwe emakethe yezikweletu. UBessent ukuqinisekisile ukuthi leli thuluzi lisetshenzisiwe futhi lakhuthaza ukusetshenziswa kwalo kabanzi ezinyangeni ezizayo. Isinqumo sokusebenzisa i-FIMA sigcizelela ukukhathazeka kweWashington ngokuvimbela iJapan ekuphoqelekeni ukukhulula inani elikhulu lezikweletu zase-U.S., okwakungase kuphazamise izimakethe.
UMengameli wase-US uDonald Trump uchaze lo msebenzi "njengophawu lobungane" neJapane futhi waqinisekisa ukuthi uhulumeni wakhe uzohlala ekhona ukusekela umlingani wawo. Ekhuluma nabezindaba, uTrump uchaze ukuthi iziphathimandla zaseJapan zicele usizo nokuthi i-White House iphendule ngokushesha. Ukubandakanyeka kukamongameli ngqo kuqinisa isimo sezepolitiki sokungenelela futhi kuthumela umlayezo ocacile ezimakethe mayelana nokuzimisela kwamazwe womabili ukwenza ngendlela ehlelekile.
Ngakolunye uhlangothi, isikhulu esiphezulu sezimali zangaphandle saseJapan, u-Atsushi Mimura, uphakamise ukuthi ukwesekwa kwe-US kudlulela ngale kokusekelwa kokuziphatha kuphela nokuthi ukuxhumana okuqhubekayo neziphathimandla zase-US kugcinwa. UMimura uphinde waphakamisa ukuthi kungenzeka ukuthi kube nokuxhumana neNingizimu Korea, njengoba inzuzo nayo yaziswa ngesikhathi esifanayo. Lokhu kuxhumana kwesifunda okungenzeka kunezela olunye ungqimba lobunzima esulweni lemali laseJapan.
Umbono we-yen kanye neBhange laseJapan
Lokhu kungenelela kwenzeke njengoba iBhange laseJapan (BoJ) ligcine izinga lenzalo elilinganiselwe ku-1%, kulandela ukwenyuka okwenziwe ngoJuni. I-BoJ inqume ukungashintshi izinga emhlanganweni wayo ngoLwesihlanu , yize ilungu elilodwa liveze ukwesekwa kokulikhuphula libe ngu-1,25%. Amaminithi omhlangano akhombisa ukuthi ibhange eliphakathi lilindele ukukhuphuka kwentengo okuyisisekelo okucishe kube ngu-2,5% ngonyaka wezimali ka-2026 futhi liyavuma ukuthi i-yen ebuthakathaka yenza ukungeniswa kwamandla nokudla kubize kakhulu, okubeka ingcindezi ephezulu emananini abathengi.
Abahlaziyi balindele ukuthi iBhange laseJapan (BoJ) lizokhuphula amazinga enzalo abe ngu-1,25% ngaphambi kokuphela konyaka , uma nje ukwehla kwamandla emali kuhlala kuzinzile futhi i-yen ingabuyi kakhulu. Ukwenyuka okwengeziwe kwamanani kuzonciphisa umehluko wesilinganiso senzalo ne-United States, lapho i-Federal Reserve igcina khona ibanga layo elihlosiwe phakathi kuka-3,50% no-3,75%. Lo mehluko ube yimbangela eyinhloko yokuhweba ngezimpahla zokuthwala, isu elihilela ukuboleka i-yen eshibhile ukuze kutshalwe imali ezimpahleni ezikhiqiza amadola amaningi—umkhuba ovamile emakethe ye- forex.
Umthelela wokungenelela ezimakethe zezimali zaseJapan ube ngokushesha. Inkomba ye -Nikkei ye-Tokyo Stock Exchange yehle ngo-2,38% ekuqaleni ngoMsombuluko , idonswe yilahleko evela kubathumeli abakhulu abanjengoToyota neHonda, abesaba ukuthi i-yen enamandla izonciphisa inzuzo yabo yaphesheya kwezilwandle. Kodwa-ke, ukwehla kwehle kakhulu kulo lonke iseshini, futhi inkomba yakwazi ukuvala ngokulahlekelwa okwengeziwe okuvinjelwe. Ukuguquguquka kwemali kusalokhu kuyiyona nto ebaluleke kakhulu kubatshalizimali.
Ukungenelela okuhlanganisiwe kweJapan ne-United States kukhombisile ukuthi abenzi bezinqubomgomo bakulungele ukuthatha isinyathelo esiqinile ukuze banciphise ukwehla kwe-yen, kodwa futhi kugcizelele nemikhawulo yokusebenza okukodwa. Imbuyiselo yedola ngaphezu kwe-yen engu-160 iphakamisa ukuthi imakethe isaqhutshwa yizisekelo , ikakhulukazi umehluko wesilinganiso senzalo. Ukuze i-yen iqinise ukululama okuqhubekayo, iBhange laseJapan kuzodingeka lisheshise ukwenziwa kwenqubomgomo yalo yezimali kube ngokwejwayelekile, kanti iFederal Reserve kuzodingeka ibonise ushintsho olukhulu. Okwamanje, usongo lokungenelela okuqhubekayo lusaqhubeka, futhi abahwebi bayazi ukuthi iTokyo neWashington zingaphinde zithathe isinyathelo nganoma yisiphi isikhathi.