Lo nyaka ka-2022, ukwehla kwamandla emali kubonakale ngesitayela, ngenxa yokungqubuzana kwase-Ukraine nangenxa yokusetshenziswa kabi kwezinqubomgomo zezimali ukuqeda umthelela walolu bhubhane. Ngokusho komhlaziyi wezobuchwepheshe ovelele, uLarry Williams, ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali isizokwehla, yingakho ephakamise isimo sokubuyisela amasheya phakathi kwamanje kuze kube sekupheleni kukaJuni.
Ithini ingxabano kaWilliams? 邏
(Uma ungenayo ukuqeqeshwa kokutshalwa kwezimalisi-ion yezezimali futhi awuqondi idatha, ungakhathazeki, sizamile ukwenza isiqiniseko sokuthi ichazwa kahle kakhulu :D) Ukuze uhumushe ukuhlaziywa okusekelwe eshadini likaWilliams, kuyasiza ukuqonda izinyathelo ezimbili zokwehla kwamandla emali: 1. Inkomba yentengo yomthengi (CPI) nezimo Ilandelela izindleko zezinto ezishintsha izintengo ngokushesha: ukudla, imikhiqizo yamandla, izimoto kanye nezivakashi. I-2. I inkomba yentengo yomthengi (CPI) isisekelo ilandelela izindleko zezinto ezishintsha amanani kancane kancane: imfundo nezinsizakalo zezokwelapha, isibonelo. Njengamanje, i-CPI eguquguqukayo iphezulu, empeleni, iphakeme kunanoma yiziphi iziqongo zayo eminyakeni engama-50 edlule.
I-Flexible CPI vs Base CPI yeminyaka engu-50 edlule. Umthombo: Bloomberg.
Kodwa uma sisusa ukudla namandla, okuyizinto eziguquguqukayo kakhulu ezilandelwa ku-CPI eguquguqukayo, singabona ukubuka okuhlukile. Ngokomlando, le CPI eguquguqukayo ibe inkomba ethembekile yokuthi i-CPI eyisisekelo ibheke kuphi ngokulandelayo. Futhi kubukeka sengathi sinezindaba ezinhle, uma kubhekwa izinga lokushintshisana ngezilinganiso eziyinhloko elikhuphuke kakhulu ngonyaka odlule, eliphakamisa ukuthi ukwehla kwamandla emali okuyisisekelo kufanele kuqale ukwehla maduze. Ngamanye amazwi, kungenzeka ukuthi sesifinyelele emalini ephezulu, kungenxa yokuthi abatshalizimali bebengakakuqapheli (kanjalo namaphakethe ethu ...).
I-CPI eguquguqukayo yezinyanga eziyi-12 vs. izinyanga ezi-3 ezenziwe ngonyaka. Umthombo: CNBC.
Kusho ukuthini lokhu ezitokweni?
Ukuze siphendule lo mbuzo, ake siqale sibheke elinye ithuluzi ekuhlaziyeni kuka-Williams: Umugqa wokuhamba phambili/wehla (ngomhlophe), olandelela inani lezitoko ezikhuphukayo ngenani uma ziqhathaniswa nenani elehlayo usuku ngalunye. Kuyindlela ewusizo yokuqonda amandla noma ubuthakathaka embuthanweni wemakethe yamasheya noma ukwehla, okungukuthi, noma izitoko ezimbalwa eziphezulu zishayela yonke inkomba noma ukuthi izitoko eziningi zihamba ngendlela efanayo. Kuyasiza futhi ukuzama ukubikezela ukuthi izitoko zizohamba kuphi ngokulandelayo (ngombala oluhlaza okwesibhakabhaka).
Umugqa we-Advance nowehla onesibikezelo sokukhula. Umthombo: CNBC.
Leso sibikezelo siphakamisa ukuthi sekuyisikhathi sokuthi ulayini wokuhamba phambili/wokwehle ukhuphuke, okungasho umhlangano wezimakethe zamasheya ongathatha ihlobo lonke. Kunjalo, isibikezelo sikaWilliams siphinde siphakamise ukuthi sizolungiswa ngo-Agasti, okulandelwa ukuphindaphinda ekupheleni kwehlobo. Kunjalo, isihlengo sendlela yokwenza kaWilliams ukuthi ayisitsheli ubukhulu bokunyakaza okungase kube khona, ngakho-ke asazi ukuthi lokho kuphinda kukhuphuke kangakanani.
Singalisebenzisa kanjani ngokunenzuzo leli thuba?
Uma sesidlulile emalini ephezulu njengoba ukuhlaziya kukaWilliams kuphakamisa, amabhange amakhulu angase angagcini ekhuphula amanani enzalo ngokushesha njengoba sonke besilindele, okungaba kuhle emakethe. Zama ukuhlanganisa ukuhlaziywa kwesimo sikaWilliams bese usiqhathanisa nokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe, okubonisa ukuthi isitoko kufanele sikhuphuke, futhi manje kungaba yisikhathi esimnandi sokuthenga isitoko. Kunezindlela ezimbili esingasebenzisa ngazo leli thuba ngokunenzuzo: (i) Eyokuqala iwukuthenga amasheya ngokuqondile, nge-ETF, ukuze sizuze embuthanweni ongase ube khona. Uma kubhekwa ukuthi isikhathi sokuhweba kwethu ngokuvamile kulula ukusinquma kunesikhathi semakethe ngokwayo, kungaba ukuhlakanipha ukulungiselela u-Agasti oguquguqukayo, kunokuzama ukuhlela ukuthi uzothengisa nini nokuthi uzothenga nini futhi. Yena I-Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT) ilandelela izenzo emhlabeni wonke, ukuze sibone ukuthi zithuthuka kanjani emhlabeni jikelele.
Ukuthuthukiswa kweVanguard Total World Stock ETF eminyakeni emi-3 edlule. Umthombo: Morningstar.
(ii) Okwesibili kungokusebenzisa izinketho: uma sikholelwa ukuthi amasheya azokhuphuka futhi sifuna kube nenzuzo eyengeziwe, singathenga izinketho zezingcingo kuma-ETF emakethe yesitoko ngentengo engaphezu kwamazinga amanje (okusinika ilungelo lokuthenga ngaleyo ntengo ephezulu) ngisho noma amanani enyuka kakhulu. Izinketho ze-Put, ezisinika ilungelo lokuthengisa amasheya ngentengo ethile, zingasisiza ukuthi sisivikele uma kwenzeka kudayiswa ngo-August. Ukuhlanganisa izingcingo nokubeka izinketho ngenani lesiteleka elifanayo kuyisu elaziwa ngokuthi I-Straddle- Ivumela ukuthi sizuze ekuguquguqukeni kwezimakethe zamasheya kunoma iyiphi indlela. Futhi kunjalo, singasetha ama-straddles amaningi ngamaleveli entengo ahlukene futhi sizilungise kuye ngokuthi leyo mibuthano engaba khona ithuthuka kanjani.
Incazelo yesu elide le-Straddle.
Kodwa kufanele siqaphele, njengoba nakuba abanye abantu bezophikisana ngokuthi ukuhlaziywa kwezobuchwepheshe kunikeza izimpawu zokuhweba zesikhashana esifushane, abagxeki bayo bazothi kuyiphutha. Izinkulungwane zezifundo azizange zigudluze inaliti ngendlela eyodwa noma enye. Noma kunjalo, kungakhathaliseki ukuthi siyawathemba amasignali noma cha, kufanelekile ukuwabheka, ngoba abanye abatshalizimali bazowasebenzisa ukwenza izinqumo. Futhi uma sekwanele kubo, izibikezelo zokuhlaziywa kobuchwepheshe zingagcwaliseka.